Denver Broncos (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)
Week 8 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, October 30, 2017 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: DEN +7.5/KC -7.5
Over/Under Total: 43.5
The Denver Broncos come out to Arrowhead to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. This AFC West game is big for both teams. After a 5-0 start, the Chiefs have dropped two straight games, including a really rough Thursday Night Football defeat to the Raiders when the game was extended two plays, enabling the Raiders to score the one-point comeback win. They will be looking to avoid a 3-game losing streak when they take on the Broncos this week. The Broncos are nose-diving in pretty graphic fashion after starting the season 3-1. On Sunday, they were shut out 21-0 by the Chargers. Since coming off the bye, they've put forth a pair of stinkers. At 3-3, it's not too late to turn it around and they look for that to happen in a tough road spot against a Chiefs team that will be feeling some desperation of its own.
The Chiefs have won three straight matchups against the Broncos, including a 33-10 win over Denver at Arrowhead last season. The last few weeks, however, have been a coming-down-to-earth scenario for the Chiefs. By the same token, two losses do not detract from what they've been able to do this season and the last several seasons. They've built a solid contender—a winning team that has gotten better. They have serious playmaking ability on offense and while their defense hasn't been great the last few weeks, at their best they are a difference-making group. All told, they were pretty unlucky to lose to the Raiders late, with a bizarre final sequence and a slew of penalties leading to the winning Raiders TD. They look to get back on the right track this week against an incoming Chiefs' bunch.
The Chiefs have gotten a boost in their run-game and with their aerial attack. Alex Smith is completing over 72% of his throws with 15 touchdowns and no picks on the season. The offensive line, while helping spring a nice run-game, hasn't been that adept at insulating Smith from the pass-rush. The addition and explosion of Kareem Hunt has been great for this team and he has 717 yards on the ground, along with 25 receptions. Tyreek Hill is a valuable asset in the receiving game and on returns. Travis Kelce has 37 catches and a big force at tight end, though a concussion has him questionable for this game. Albert Wilson and De'Anthony Thomas have had some nice moments this season, as well. This offense has really done an about-face in the last few seasons and they're one of the most-dangerous groups in the league now.
In the loss to Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, the Chiefs gave up 19 points, with that number swelling to 31 in the loss to the Raiders. The Chiefs' offense has made it hard sometimes to see the deficiencies on the other side of the ball. They've been average against the pass and not very good against the opposing run-games they've seen this season for the most part. Marcus Peters is a talented corner who can make plays, but he's been giving up some big ones lately. Dontari Poe has been a letdown as a run-stopper up-front. Justin Houston has been applying a steady pass-rush and Dee Ford is healthy again and should start piling up some sacks. They aren't the stoutest defense, but at their best, they are huge late in games and make enough big plays to tip things in their favor. We haven't seen much of that in the past two weeks.
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For Denver to come off the bye and lose to the Giants was bad enough. To follow that with a shutout loss lands Denver in a bad spot—the worst shape they've been in for quite a while. At 3-1, things were looking decent and to start getting pounded by teams with losing records just paints a really bad picture for where the Broncos are heading going into the season's midway point. They got shut out by a team they beat earlier this season, while losing by 13 as two-touchdown favorites at home in consecutive weeks. The offense is off-kilter, with the run-game having lost some of the steam it had earlier in the season. And the defense has slipped a bit, though it remains solid even with the lack of support on the other side of the ball.
Since having a big game against Dallas, Trevor Siemian has been pretty bad, with two TD throws and 5 picks. His other stats might not look all that bad, but he has been missing some open guys and making bad choices. The developing 1-2 punch of CJ Anderson and Jamaal Charles has been underachieving for the past few weeks. With Emmanuel Sanders out and Demaryius Thomas struggling to find his groove, it's an aerial attack that is relying on guys like AJ Derby and Bennie Fowler, nice complimentary pieces, but not ideal to lead an offense to glory. Also not helping is an offensive line that is suffering with some key guys missing forcing a re-shuffling. On the right side of the line, they are really hurting.
The defense is the last saving grace at this point for the Broncos. They've held up well despite not getting a lot of help. The secondary has still been very solid even in losing. The Chargers were held to 242 yards on Sunday in total offense and after being leaky against the run against the Giants, they held Melvin Gordon to 38 yards on 18 carries. Von Miller had two sacks on the day. One of the Chargers' touchdowns was on a punt return. In other words, the defense is in good shape for the Broncos. It's everyone else who needs to get their act together.
While both teams are coming off back-to-back losses and face a pivotal moment this week, the Chiefs are in far better shape to snap out of the funk. They haven't been all that far off and at home with some desperation resonating, it's hard to not picture them playing well. The same can't be said for what appears to be a completely-sideways Denver team that has looked awful since coming off the bye. Not that they won't snap out of it, but we see this being a rough spot for the Broncos.
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