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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Point Spread - Pick

Detroit Lions (2-1-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS)
Week 6 NFL
Date/Time: Monday, October 14, 2019 at 8:15PM EST
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: ESPN

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: DET +5/GB -5
Over/Under Total: 47

The Detroit Lions take on the Green Bay Packers in an NFC North matchup on Monday Night Football. Detroit was the recipient of an early bye-week, taking off week five while the Packers were banging it out with the Cowboys. Detroit has gotten off to a pretty good start at 2-1-1, at least showing signs that they're prepared to contend for the postseason. They suffered their first loss in their last game, leading all the way until the game's final seconds, when the Kansas City Chiefs came back to nip the Lions at the wire, 34-30. Meanwhile, the Packers were upping their stock in raising their record to 4-1 with a 34-24 win over the Cowboys on Sunday. Looking good, can they hold it down at Lambeau? Or will a rested Lions team show its teeth?

The loss to Kansas City showed both sides of the coin for the Chiefs. One is that the Lions are a pretty good team, able to hang in there and lead one of the league's best teams for most of the game. You're starting to see a group of guys who identify with being a good team and really believe it. With wins over teams like the Chargers and Eagles, they have built up their confidence and look like a team that could make some noise. They do, however, need to learn to close games better. In their tie and loss this season, they had a decent lead and couldn't hold on to it. But there are a lot of good signs in Detroit.

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How much last season even matters, especially with these two teams, remains to be seen. Both teams appear to be better. But Detroit still beat Green Bay in both contests last season. Detroit scored 31 points in both games, even shutting Green Bay out in week 17. But I would look for more resistance this week on both sides of the ball from Green Bay. The Packers have played at a higher level this season, flexing a far better defense and we'll see how Detroit combats that.

Through four games, the Lions have shown a better offense, one that has balance and can put forth some big plays from time to time. Matthew Stafford has a good back in which he can rely in Kerryon Johnson. Against the Chiefs, we finally saw Johnson get unhinged this season, as he ran for a huge day. The line has been pretty good, keeping Stafford protected and allowing the run-game to be something more than window-dressing. Stafford has legitimate targets through the air, with reliable Marvin Jones, blossoming Kenny Golladay, rising tight end TJ Hockenson (questionable), and Danny Amendola (questionable). With nine TDs and just two picks, Stafford seems to be enjoying having a plethora of real targets for a change.

Again, it hasn't been good to see the Lions' defense melting late as opponents make a surge, but there have been some bright spots for the Detroit defense so far this season. For big parts of both games against the Cardinals and Chiefs, they were really effective for long stretches. Putting a full game together, however, wasn't in the cards. Allowing ten points to the Chargers was a victory for this "D," And even in allowing 24 to the Eagles in their other win, they made enough big plays to turn things in their favor. In the front seven, Devon Kennard, Christian Jones, and Trey Flowers are getting after it, while Tavon Wilson, Darius Slay (questionable), Tracy Walker, Rashaan Melvin, and others are in the back keeping it together. It's a unit where it's fair to say they will get better as the season carries on.

The Packers looked really good on Sunday in a 34-24 win over the Cowboys on the road that wasn't even as close as the score says. By the time RB Aaron Jones scored his 4th touchdown of the game late in the third quarter, it was 31-3 Green Bay, before Dallas tacked on some extra action that didn't mean anything at the end of the game. After losing their first game of the season to the Eagles, going into Dallas and notching a big win within their conference was a good development for this team and they now return home looking to score another win in their division after beating both the Bears and Vikings.

With the Green Bay defense getting a lot of attention the first few weeks, we now are starting to see a spark from the Green Bay offense. While Aaron Rodgers didn't light the world on fire Sunday, he's been more-efficient. He has only one pick on the season so far and is getting nice protection up-front from his offensive line. The line has also shown signs of spring loose a run-game, with Aaron Jones having a career day against the Cowboys. He had over 100 yards and four TD runs, along with 75 receiving yards. Getting Davante Adams, their leading receiver, back for this game would help. Without him, they're a little thin at receiver, though they have some useful ball-catchers in Jones, Geronimo Allison, Randall Cobb, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and a still-dangerous Jimmy Graham.

Stats might indicate that the Green Bay defense slipped up a bit on Sunday, allowing 463 yards to Dak Prescott and over 100 on the ground to Dallas. What's important from that game to remember is that late in the third quarter, the Cowboys had only managed a field goal and were effectively out of the game. They continue to get a good pass-rush from Za'Darius Smith, who is really paying off in his first season in Green Bay, along with Preston Smith. And their secondary continues to be a playmaking one and on Sunday, Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, and Chandon Sullivan all had picks. But after giving up a lot of yards to Dallas and allowing 34 points to Philly the previous week, look for this defense to be looking to re-establish itself a bit this week at home.

This looks to be a typical tough game in NFL's black-and-blue division. It's early, but both teams look to be contenders within this division and potentially beyond. I see a competitive game at Lambeau, with both teams having some success on both sides of the ball. In the end, I see the Packers pulling away a little bit at the end, notching the big home-win and cover.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Green Bay Packers minus 5 points. Bet this game for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!

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