Detroit Lions (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Week 6 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 15, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: DET +4/NO -4
Over/Under Total: 51
The Detroit Lions make the trip down south for a week 6 matchup against the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome. The Saints are coming off a bye week, which followed two really big wins for the Saints. After starting the season 0-2 after being handily beaten by the Vikings and Patriots, the Saints beat the Panthers by 21 points, before beating Miami, 20-0, in London in their last game. They now host the dangerous Lions who will be looking to get back on the winning track after losing at home in week five to the Panthers, 27-24. They have lost two of three and considering how streaky they've been in recent years, they want to stop the bleeding now before they waste what was a good start to the season.
After such a rough start to the season, the Saints are on the right track, with two straight wins and a bye-week to rest their bones and help banged-up players get back into the mix. Their defense, a major roadblock to victory in the first two games and the past several seasons, has given up 13 combined points in the last two games. And they're doing it while being banged-up on both sides of the ball, with some key guys out on defense and an offensive line that is trying to patch something together. After a pair of road wins, the Saints now return home with what should be some good enthusiasm from the fans and the players alike.
Drew Brees is still getting it done and has 8 touchdown throws with zero picks on over 69% completions. The run-game, with Mark Ingram and youngster Alvin Kamara, has been slow to materialize, but one shouldn't expect that to be the case all season. The line has been without Terron Armstead for four games and has now lost RT Zach Strief for extended time, but they've played well in the last two games, showing some depth they've lacked in recent seasons. The return of WR Willie Snead could start paying off soon, as Michael Thomas continues his progress as a burgeoning star receiver, with WR Ted Ginn, Jr., TE Coby Fleener, WR Brandon Coleman, and others chipping in. It's still an awfully-good offense.
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The New Orleans defense is not one that can be banked on to shine week-after-week, even as they have looked very good in the past few games. They are still dicey in the secondary, where some key guys have been lost indefinitely to injuries. At corner, they are working with spot-starter Ken Crawley and rookie Marshon Lattimore, along with a good safety in Kenny Vaccaro and Vonn Bell. With Alex Okafor and Cameron Jordan, they can get after quarterbacks, while Sheldon Rankins and Tyeler Davidson are doing well in the run-stop category. They have also lost Alex Anzalone in the middle and will have to rely on some of the depth they acquired in the offseason. All told, they have shown in the last few weeks that the "D" might not be quite the liability that some think.
Detroit came up short at home against the Panthers, with Cam Newton having a big game. Detroit tried to make a late run, but fell just short against an on-point Panthers squad. The Lions have lost both their games by close margins, with their other loss to the Falcons being a controversial one that came down to the last play. Watching the Lions over the past several seasons, they can be streaky, so this game means a lot. 4-2 just seems so much better than 3-3. Look for the solid Detroit effort this week.
The Detroit offense wasn't on-point on Sunday. The offensive line found themselves manhandled at times by the Carolina front. After some decent performances on the ground in recent weeks, the line couldn't open holes and allowed six quarterback sacks to Matthew Stafford, who hurt his ankle and hamstring in the process and is iffy for this week. Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Theo Reddick, and Eric Ebron had some production, but we've yet to see really big games from their receiving corps. On Sunday, veteran tight end Darren Fells caught two touchdowns, but they need a bigger impact in the aerial attack, especially as the run-game struggles more often than not. There are just games where you'd think they would get more out of what they have.
The Detroit defense didn't have a great showing on Sunday. When guys like Ed Dickson go for 175 yards receiving, it's not a good sign. Newton was electric with 355 yards, connecting with ease with most of his playmakers. Detroit was typically stout against the run, giving up 28 yards on 28 carries. The front is pretty tough, though they saw valuable run-stopper Haloti Ngata go down with an elbow injury. Young DT A'Shawn Robinson has been doing well up front, with Ziggy Ansah getting after the QB, as he had another sack on Sunday. And the secondary is not terribly stout. Darius Slay and Glover Quin make up for it by making big plays, but when they don't, it's a definite detriment to the overall team effort. There is nothing unique about this equation, but this defense is really good against so-so offenses and readily exploitable against offenses that are clicking on a particular day.
Detroit didn't show it against Carolina to the point of getting the win, but they're one of the more-clutch teams in the league, as evidenced by setting the record for the most 4th-quarter comebacks last season. And they have shown some late-surges this season, as well. Their secondary will need to come up with something for this matchup and if they thought it was rough with Newton last Sunday, it could ugly in the Superdome with Brees and Company. I'm picturing a game with a lot of offense. I'm taking the "over."
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