NFL Week One Point Spreads for the 2016 Season
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
As of this writing, it's difficult to think about week one in the NFL. While a lot has been settled with draft picks and overall player moves, a lot can still happen and not happen. So anyone wanting to dip their toe into the pool this early is betting in the dark to some extent. At the same time, there is usually good value to be found in unchartered territory. With so many bettor's eyes on different things, there can be some interesting early lines to pounce on if you keep your eyes open.
There are a lot of different considerations to make when betting this early. You have to think about what kinds of teams would be better to bet when you don't know much. Ideally, you'd like to see a team that isn't so utterly dependent on the quarterback, especially if their quarterback is injury-prone. A team like Dallas or maybe even Pittsburgh comes to mind. You could also make a case for avoiding teams that are depending heavily on one big acquisition they have made in the offseason.
A lot of this is based on last year. Maybe you have your eye on some teams that you figure will be far better than forecasted. Why wait for them to make their presence known? Getting aboard now can lock in a point spread or total that might not be there after a fruitful preseason. Or after the season starts and everyone else sees how good they are. The same applies to teams you think may be primed for a downfall. Again, the word will get out quick if you're correct and making an early week one NFL bet is a way to be ahead of the curve. Let's look at some more of the upside/downside of early week one NFL wagers.
Pros: You can lock in good value early. If you sense a team will not make it to week one intact, you can bet against that team. Any teams you think will be better or worse than what most people are thinking can be bet now while the cat is still in the bag. And considering that this is an area of betting that won't get a lot of attention, you can benefit from point spreads and totals that aren't market-tested.
Cons: Making a bet on any event that lies ahead a certain amount of time means your money will be tied up for a while. Some people don't like that. In addition, there is any number of things that could lead to you getting the short end of the stick. It wouldn't be a very good feeling to have your money tied up and still end up with a worse point spread than if you had just bet that same team on game-day. Like any well-intended futures bet, the rationale can always backfire.
Here are the early point spreads and totals for week one in the NFL, followed by our early thoughts:
Thursday Night Football, September 8, 2016 at 8:30PM EST
Carolina Panthers -1 vs. Denver Broncos +1, Total: 43
Sunday, September 11, 2016, 1:00PM EST Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 vs. Atlanta Falcons -3, Total: 47.5
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans +2.5, Total: 42
Cleveland Browns +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles -7, Total: 44.5
Cincinnati Bengals pk vs. New York Jets pk, Total: 42
Oakland Raiders pk vs. New Orleans Saints pk, Total: 50
San Diego Chargers +7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs -7, Total: 43
Buffalo Bills +2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens -2.5, Total: 43
Chicago Bears +6 vs. Houston Texans -6, Total: 44
Green Bay Packers -4.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5, Total: 47
Sunday, September 11, 2016, 4:00PM EST Games
Miami Dolphins +9.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks, Total: 44 (4:05PM EST)New York Giants +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys -3.5, Total: 49 (4:25PM EST)
Detroit Lions +5.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts -5.5, Total: 49 (4:25 PM EST)
Sunday Night Football, September 11, 2016, 8:30PM EST
New England Patriots +4 vs. Arizona Cardinals -4, Total: 50
Monday Night Football, September 12, 2016
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Washington Redskins +3, Total: 50.5 (7:10PM EST)
Los Angeles Rams -1 vs. San Francisco 49ers +1, Total: 46 (10:20PM EST)
Things that stood out to us about week one in the NFL:
The first game of the season, a Super Bowl 50 rematch featuring Carolina at Denver, is pretty interesting. Sometimes, the team that lost the Super Bowl is more eager to atone, though the game obviously doesn't mean as much. It's in Denver, but the Broncos are without a lot of pieces against a Carolina team that still stands out as one of the NFC's top contenders. On Sunday, the Tennessee Titans, who had one the league's best offseasons, aren't getting a ton of respect, as 2.5-point home dogs to the visiting Minnesota Vikings. As of press time, the Jets don't have a cemented quarterback and are still a pick-'em at home against the Bengals. Interesting.
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New Orleans looks to be getting decent week one value at home, also a pick-'em against visiting Oakland. On Sunday Night Football, the New England Patriots are 4-point underdogs against Arizona. That spread is predicated on Tom Brady's suspension holding up, but who knows? That could be pretty nice value come game-day. The dual Monday Night Football showcase looks interesting, beginning with the Steelers as 3-point faves on the road against the Redskins. And in the Rams' first game since moving back to Los Angeles, they travel to Levi's Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers as 1-point underdogs.
