First NFL Head Coach Fired in 2016 Futures
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
The biggest condemnation of a head coach is to can him in the middle of the season. It says the organization would rather just clear the table than let the coach finish the season. It's the equivalent of a dishonorable discharge from the military. Last season, Miami's Joe Philbin was canned after 4 games, while Eagles head coach Chip Kelly was let go before the season finale. It's become less-fashionable, with only 4 such firings since 2011. The norm used to be 3-4 a year.
When you look at the different coaches, take a situational approach. Don't just look at it in terms of which teams will struggle. For example, you might forecast that the New Orleans Saints will struggle. We see Saints' coach Sean Payton is the 6th choice on the board. But after what he has done for this franchise and being signed to a contract in the offseason, is a midseason firing the most likely result?
Some coaches are just easier to fire than others for a variety of factors. Teams can be locked into their coaches after making a stand. Look at Mike McCoy, the leading choice on this betting board. They stuck with him after a 4-12 season last year. If that wasn't enough to get him canned, what would happen this season to arouse the ire of the front office? Jim Caldwell, the second choice on the board, survived an 0-5 and 1-7 start last season and finished the season 6-2 in his last 8 games. Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones has again and again committed to Jason Garrett and for what, so he can fire him in the middle of a season? It's situational is all we're saying.
Here are the odds for the first NFL head coach to get fired, followed by our list of the best candidates. Remember, this is a bet where a winner might not materialize, with there being multiple seasons where no coach suffers this fate. Take a look at our selections, followed by all the odds for all the coaches.
Our Picks for Coach to Fired First in the 2016 Season
Gus Bradley (+600): Teams supposed to be on the rise are always going to have coaches who are candidates to get dropped in the event that the supposed upsurge falls flat. In three seasons, Bradley has led the Jags to 12 wins. There's a lot of losing in their DNA and if things don't take hold, the front office likely won't be kind.
Chuck Pagano (+1600): With the Colts, one just gets the sense that there is some urgency with Luck now back in the fold and things expected to finally materialize with a 2016 push. So the stage is set for possible disappointment, not an altogether improbable outcome for a team that still has a lot of holes.
Mike Mularkey (+2000): The Titans have a precedent for midseason firings going back just to last season when Ken Whisenhunt got the boot after 7 games. Mularkey got the gig on an interim basis and parlayed it into the full-time gig in the offseason, but he might not be on a long leash. A revamped run-game, Mariota being in his second season, and other key pieces being added have raised expectations. A really bad start could have Mularkey on his way out.
Jack Del Rio (+2500): Again, we're going with teams that have suffered in recent seasons and are due for an upturn. The optimism on Oakland heading into the 2016 season is perhaps well-placed. Still, we're talking about a team where losing has been the norm, having not gone over .500 since they made the Super Bowl in 2002. Del Rio led this team to 7 wins last season, which was a 4-win improvement on the previous season, but he might be a victim of the expectations he set.
Rex Ryan (+2500): There just seems to be something about the Bills where their ceiling is high, but their valley is low. If they don't fire this season and fail to hit the ground running, that seat could get hot for Ryan. After a 9-7 season in '14 and an 8-8 season in 2015, one senses that any form of definitive regression will not be tolerated.
BET ON WHO WILL BE THE FIRST HEAD COACH TO GET FIRED IN THE 2016 SEASON USING THESE ODDS AT THE WEB'S BEST SPORTSBOOK: 5DIMES
Odds for First NFL Coach to the Fired
Mike McCoy +350
Jim Caldwell +400
Jeff Fisher +600
Gus Bradley +1200
Jason Garrett +1400
Sean Payton +1400
Bill O Brien +1600
Chuck Pagano +1600
Dirk Koetter +2000
Jay Gruden +2000
Mike Mularkey +2000
Adam Gase +2500
Chip Kelly +2500
Doug Pederson +2500
Jack Del Rio +2500
John Fox +2500
Rex Ryan +2500
Ben McAdoo +3300
Hue Jackson +3300
Dan Quinn +4000
John Harbaugh +4000
Todd Bowles +4000
Marvin Lewis +5000
Mike Zimmer +5000
Andy Reid +8000
Gary Kubiak +8000
Mike Tomlin +10000
Ron Rivera +10000
Mike McCarthy +15000
Bill Belichick +25000
Bruce Arians +25000
Pete Carroll +25000
