Free Sports Picks: Home CFB NBA CBB MLB MMA Boxing Super Bowl
LootMeister NFL Picks
Online SportsbooksBest Sportsbook Bonuses

Being Realistic

Football Betting: Being Realistic

By Loot, Football Handicapper,

Prior to even stepping into a sportsbook or opening an online account, we should always take inventory of our expectations. We need to make sure they are realistic. If our expectations are out-of-whack, it will poison everything that happens from there. A big part of success at football wagering is being able to keep your expectations in-check.

Even the professionals have bad times in this business. People have this vision of successful sports bettors as guys who are winning almost all of their bets, magicians who ride in the back of limos with champagne and caviar. It's a lot less glamorous. If you're winning 58% of your bets over a long-haul, you are doing really good in this business. That's not a number that is likely to inspire much awe.

So you're not going to win every week. There might be stretches where it isn't going well. For those in the know, they realize it's a steady grind--a painstaking road to simply be a little over the .500 mark. In that mix are winning and losing weekends, but a certain steadfastness on the part of the "pro" bettor that allows him to hang in there and pull profits slowly.

The worst thing that can happen in a lot of cases is for a bettor to have a lot of initial success. They hit the ground running and figure it's always going to be like that. When they reach the bumpy part of the road that awaits all football betting men, they are less-equipped to handle it. Their expectations ballooned up and the bubble burst, leaving them in the dust.

Having high hopes and a level of excitement when beginning to bet on football is fine. To think you are some scary genius who is going to pulverize the book for a lifetime is not. It doesn't work that way--regardless of how well you might be doing at the moment. Success can be a scary thing for those ill-prepared to handle it. In a lot of ways, success poisons more bettors than simply losing bets.

There are betting men out there who become intoxicated by even brief moments of success. We've probably all had friends who after 3-4 good weeks betting football are now seriously considering themselves professionals. They see this as a new job. And then whatever pixie dust they had floating around in their heads disappears and they are sent crashing down to reality. Contrast that mindset with the guy whose expectations are in-line.

If a pro can pull 60% even in a season where he's really hot, he's still losing 40% of his bets. All he is trying to do is pull the string and have the curtains move in the direction he wants a little more often than it doesn't. When a bad weekend or stretch of them ends in losing fashion, the guy with reasonable expectations can shake it off and chalk it up to just being the nature of the beast. The guy who quit his job to be football bettor after 6 good weeks is more likely to unravel after a bad run.

For most of us, both examples are extremes. We are not a professional bettor nor are we gambling degenerates with issues of self-delusion. We're somewhere in the middle--guys trying to make an extra buck. We realize the guys who are behind making the lines are the real pros and we're just sheep who are being led to the slaughter at a 98% rate. We know our limitations and how easy it is to become just another casualty lost in the world of football betting.


A big problem for a lot of guys is a sense of entitlement. They feel that success in football betting is something they have coming to them. After all, they're the guys who know more about the game than all their friends. When watching a game, they are the ones making the most stimulating remarks. They're big shots on the football forums and dominate fantasy leagues. They naturally feel they can use their football wits to slug it out with the bookie and come out with a profit.

As we all know, it doesn't work that way. You could know enough about football to become an ESPN analyst and that gets you nowhere in the world of football wagering. You don't see bookies running for cover over picks made by the "Swami" or Lee Corso. We realize that becoming part of the 2% that makes it at football betting in the long-run takes a special breed and it requires an awful lot of time and results to crack into that upper pantheon.

Share this article with friends:

Leave a comment:

Quit wasting your hard earned money! Make the switch from -110 to -105 odds today!
Doc's Sports NFL Picks

NFL Betting

  • Reduced Juice - Loot explains how reduced odds football betting works and where you can find this valuable asset.
  • What is a Point Spread? - Many new to the game struggle to understand why one side has a (+) while the other has a (-) in front of a team. We explain what the spread is and how it works.
  • Football Bets - All the different types of wagers that you can make when betting on football games.
  • What Professional Handicappers Do - Learn the tricks of the trade and increase your odds of beating the books!
  • Key Numbers - The article that bookies don't want you to read!
  • NFL Betting Quiz - Test your football wagering prowess with Loot's 10 question quiz!
  • Super Bowl 52 Predictions - Loot gives his preseason picks for which teams are most likely to win "the big game" along with middle of the road and a longshot that is sure to surprise you!
  • 2017 NFL Season Wins Predictions - Loot breaks down every team and gives his opinion on how they'll do vs. the number!
  • 2017 NFL Bye Weeks - The first set start in Week 5 and the final byes take place in Week 11. Loot also gives tips on betting on teams coming off byes.
  • 2017 NFL Coaching Changes - We seem to be in an era where football coaches become disposable in an instant if they don't win. 2016 was no different as a handful of teams made the switch. Check out who went where right here!


  • Famous Football Players - Biographies of the best and greatest NFL football players of all-time.
  • Greatest NFL Players of All Time - A list of all time greats at each position. Each position has it's own dedicated article!
  • Best Quarterbacks of All Time - Joe Montana heads our list of top 10 QB's, however, Tom Brady is a sure bet to give him a run for his money by the time his career is said and done.
  • Best Running Backs of All Time - We list the top 10 greatest ball carriers of all-time. The order may be debatable, as Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton all brought something special to the gridiron.
  • Football Lingo - One must be very familiar with all of the terms, slang and jargon associated with this game to win at football betting. Find a slew of pigskin terminology right here!
  • Football Quotes - Funny and memorable sayings from around the National Football League including comments made by Vince Lombardi and John Madden.
Reduced Juice Sports Betting 100% Sportsbook Bonus Best Parlay Odds Online