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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Point Spread - Pick

Green Bay Packers (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS)
Week 10 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
TV: Fox

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper,

Point Spread: GB +4.5/CHI -4.5
Over/Under Total: 38

The Green Bay Packers come to Soldier Field on Sunday for a week ten NFC North matchup with the Chicago Bears. The Bears are coming off the bye-week, which followed a tough 20-12 road loss to the Saints in week eight. Prior to that, however, they had won two in a row, and have generally been pretty scrappy this season, despite a 3-5 record. They await the incoming Packers team, losers of three straight and spiraling without Aaron Rodgers behind center. They were pretty flat at home on MNF losing to Detroit, 30-17. These division teams have already faced each other this season, with the Packers winning at Lambeau, 35-14. Neither quarterback who will be starting this game was playing in that matchup, making it unclear how much that game even matters at this point. Chicago's defense is playing better, as well, while the Packers are no longer being led by Aaron Rodgers. This might not look a lot like that first game.

The Bears have been somewhat-sneaky this season, beating the Steelers, Ravens, and Panthers and winning two in overtime. Even in their 20-12 loss to the Saints on the road in their last game, they weren't that bad. Statistically, rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who took over four games ago, hasn't been that impressive. But there is a smoothness in which he runs the offense, as well as a certain presence. Still, he will be looking to make more happen aerially, with 164 yards being his season-high in yardage thus far.

Trubisky is a pretty slick guy. He is useful with his feet and his presence behind center seems to have resulted in a better RB Jordan Howard, who has sprung forth with some big games lately. With Howard, Trubisky, and speedy Tarik Cohen, they have some nice options they can employ on the ground. Losing TE Zach Miller was a bad blow and deprives them of a good player and one of their top aerial weapons. That leaves a pretty bare cupboard with Kendall Wright and Cohen, who is also a sparkplug in the aerial game. The guys who were supposed to contribute the most through the air are now on the injury list. All told, it's an offense that depends on the run-game and it's a pretty good one, too.

At the end of the day, the Chicago defense has been pretty good—definitely above-average through 8 games. They could get better in getting turnovers and they haven't always come up big late in games, though they did play a role in winning two games in overtime. Akiem Hicks, Leonard Floyd, and Pernell McPhee have been getting after quarterbacks. The few times they've gotten turnovers, they have made big things happen, with defensive scores by Eddie Jackson and Adrian Amos big parts of a few of Chicago's wins this season. Eddie Goldman has been good up-front against the run.

On one hand, the Packers are still 4-4, not a bad spot to be in through eight games while in the midst of a downward spiral. On the other hand, it seems like both sides of the ball are suffering in Rodgers' absence. The offense isn't as good, putting too much responsibility into the hands of a defense that was already dicey even with Rodgers in-action. To lose pretty conclusively in two games at home doesn't bode well for a team that will be on the road a lot in coming weeks. And it's not just the offense. Mistakes on defense and special teams have not helped, at the exact time when a boost from those areas was most-needed.

Packers' quarterback Brett Hundley wasn't awful statistically on MNF, going 26-for-38 with 245 yards and no picks. But he threw no touchdowns and wasn't able to make timely plays. On third and fourth down, they were 2-for-11. They were running the ball with some effectiveness, with both of their scores on the ground. But playing from behind, they couldn't put it to good use. Hundley had a rushing TD with Jamaal Williams adding another. Jordy Nelson was hard to reach as he was covered most of the night. Davante Adams and Randall Cobb had decent production, but turning it into something substantive was again an issue and this offense faces a tough second-half to the season if unable to find some answers quickly.


At the end of the day, the Green Bay defense is below average and asked to take on more, they just haven't been able to respond. They weren't too effective on MNF, though it took a really good performance from Matthew Stafford to bring that about. Despite playmaking coming from Damarious Randall and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, they have been rather porous this season against the pass. Their pass-rush hasn't really been delivering as of late and up-front, they have been subpar against the opposing run, though they weren't bad against a Detroit run-game that usually struggles. Also hurting is that the big names on this side of the ball, like Clinton-Dix, Clay Matthews, and others haven't really been that good. Coming off the bye, they were hoping for better results at home on Monday.

The Packers are in trouble, but sometimes teams can see their situations stabilize after being in the rough immediately following a personnel loss like Rodgers. From an optimist's perspective, Chicago could still be in their wheelhouse even in this condition. But the Bears have been pretty scrappy lately, flaunting a tough defense and a big run-game. I see the Packers having their share of issues, but keeping the Bears within distance and covering the spread.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Green Bay Packers plus 4.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Green Bay vs. Chicago game by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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