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Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread - Pick

Green Bay Packers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)
Week 8 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, October 27, 2019 at 8:20PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: NBC

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: GB -4.5/KC +4.5
Over/Under Total: 48

The Green Bay Packers come into Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. The Packers have really seen things come off well this season, with both sides of the ball shining en route to a 6-1 record. On Sunday, they were dominant in a 42-24 win over the Raiders in their second straight game at Lambeau. They now take to the road in a tough out-of-conference spot against the Chiefs. After losing two in a row, the Chiefs were able to win on Thursday Night Football with a good 30-6 win over the Broncos at Mile High. But with Patrick Mahomes dislocating his kneecap, the Chiefs will be without the defending league MVP and that can't be good. What happens this week at Arrowhead?

After going on a little slide, it was good for the Chiefs to score a dominant win to announce that they're still here and still a contender. But now turning to Matt Moore at quarterback, we will see how it all comes off. He didn't look bad against the Broncos, throwing a TD on 117 yards passing in relief. At 35, he is a typical backup with 29 career starts to his credit, though this will be only his 6th start in the last seven seasons. He will try to rely on a varied cast of playmakers, but obviously, losing a player of Mahomes' standing throws the team into a different light and the point spread reflects that, with a good 8-9 point accommodation being made on the basis of Mahomes' absence.

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One should perhaps be a little concerned about how well Moore will fare with that Kansas City offensive line—a group that has left something to be desired at times this season. But having a wealth of playmaking talent around him figures to be a big help. With a monster TE like Travis Kelce, receiving talent like Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, and a still-useful LeSean McCoy, he has people around him to take off some of the pressure. With role guys like Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and others, Moore at least won't be lacking for options.

With the losses on the other side of the ball, this would be a good time for the Chiefs' defense to help step up to bridge the gap. Holding Denver to 6 points at Mile High is a good development, though the difficulty ramps up significantly this week against a cruising Packers' offense. With nine sacks against Denver, the pass-rush showed that maybe it's ready to kick it into high-gear. Seeing Anthony Hitchens get back in there with two sacks was promising, along with Frank Clark showing his fangs with two sacks, while Alex Okafor had a pair of sacks of his own. Reggie Ragland is healthy and got to the QB on Thursday. We see a healthier KC defense starting to show some of the things that were projected when they made all these moves. But taking it to a flat Denver offense and doing it to Green Bay are two different things.

The Packers started 3-0, fell to the Eagles in a close one, and have since won three straight. With only two road games in their first 7 contests, we'll see if they can survive this tour through the AFC West, as they come into Arrowhead, with the Chargers on the road the following week. In Matt LaFleur's first season at the helm, he has seen his recipe for success manifest almost immediately. First, it was the defense dominating games, before Rodgers started getting more out of this offense, giving them an element of variety. Can they make it work on the road?

With two 400-plus yard games in the last 4 weeks, Rodgers has really upped his game and against Oakland, he was electric, completing over 80% of his throws for five TDs and 429 yards. And when the game is coming down to its final moments and you need a positive development, there is no better QB than Rodgers—as clutch as it gets. Aaron Jones might not romp every week, but his presence gives the Packers a difference-maker in the backfield—something they haven't had a lot in recent seasons. Watching Rodgers rampage without top receiver Davante Adams is even more impressive. Marquez Valdez-Scantling is becoming a dependable big play receiver and on Sunday, he caught passes of 74 and 59 yards. Rodgers is starting to click with fullbacks and tight ends, with Jimmy Graham, Jake Kumerow, Danny Vitale, and Allen Lazard getting a lot of play in this offense lately. Getting Adams back will only help.

In the interests of being fair, the Green Bay defense hasn't been able to maintain its fever pitch, though it might be nit-picky to say that in light of a 6-1 start. But after allowing 35 combined points in weeks 1-3, they have since yielded 104 in their last four games. That's not bad and the offense has given them a lot of room to operate. A few injuries haven't helped. But they have continue to make big plays. Preston Smith has added 7 sacks already this season and has been a big addition. That also goes for Za'Darius Smith, who has 6 sacks. With eight picks, led by Kevin King's three, the Packers secondary is making plays.

If Mahomes were in there, this would be a different game—an out-of-conference game in a tough place to play where a downward-trending Packers' defense would be facing a major challenge. And while some of that still applies, the Green Bay defense might be in a better context in which to thrive. I don't think you can lose your MVP and not have it come at a grave cost against a team as good as Green Bay. Not that KC is hopeless in this spot without their main star player, but I think his absence is enough to firmly tilt this into Green Bay's favor. I'll take the Packers.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Green Bay Packers minus 4.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on this week's Sunday Night Football game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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