Green Bay Packers (3-3-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)
Week 9 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, November 4, 2017 at 8:20PM EDT
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: NBC
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: GB +5.5/NE -5.5
Over/Under Total: 56.5
The Green Bay Packers come to Foxborough for a big Sunday Night Football matchup with the New England Patriots. The Packers are evened-up at 3-3-1, but nearly had their season-best moment against the still-unbeaten Rams in the road last Sunday. They were leading with a few minutes left, falling just short. Still, they might be at a high-water point in their season having just come off the bye to pull off the big upset. The Patriots, meanwhile, beat the Bills, 25-6 on MNF and now turn around on the short week for this week. They didn't looks sharp for much of the game, but came on strong late to register their fifth straight win. Their 1-2 start to the season is now a distant memory at this point.
Green Bay is a hard team to quantify, but with win, a bye, then the near-win in LA over the Rams, they warrant a hard look. It started rough with Green Bay winning just one of their first three games. And while they still aren't getting the results they want at just 3-3-1, they look headed on the right track. It was painful, however, on Sunday, with a fumble by Ty Montgomery on a kickoff-return spoiling the near-win. They were good enough to win, with the Rams' standout special teams winning the day over a Green Bay special teams that isn't quite as solid. Let's face it, back-to-back road games in LA against the Rams and then the Pats is a rough stretch, even for a team coming off a break.
The bye, though, was needed, and Aaron Rodgers looked a bit refreshed, having been banged up with a bad knee all season. Randall Cobb returned from injury and gives Rodgers another option. Cemented number-one receiver Davante Adams has been on a rampage the last three weeks and had 133 yards on Sunday. Rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been stepping up, with Jimmy Graham, Geronimo Allison, and others also available. Aaron Jones ran for 86 yards and a TD and Jamaal Williams also ran for a score, as the Packers are showing signs of a burgeoning run-game.
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The fact is that the Green Bay defense has been better on occasion this season. They have a rigid and playmaking secondary that is hard on opposing aerial attacks. They will be up against it this week against all the different New England ball-catchers, of which there are many. Even if that's the case, the run-defense would seem more of a concern, as it hasn't been very solid this season thus far. They started off well against the Rams on Sunday. For stretches, they kept an explosive Rams' offense off-stride. They couldn't maintain it, however. Still, there are bright-spots, with Kenny Clark getting after it from the defensive tackle spot, registering two more sacks on Sunday. Clay Matthews and Blake Martinez also got to Jared Goff last week. They're far from a complete group, but we see more playmaking this season.
Perhaps it was a recent tough stretch of games that had the Patriots a little flat against a struggling Bills team on Monday. They had to pull out all the stops the prior two weeks to beat the Chiefs and then the Bears. In their second straight road game at Buffalo on Monday, it was 9-6 deep into the third quarter. A James White TD run gave them a little cushion, before a Devin McCourty 84-yard pick-six sealed it and made the win look a little more-conclusive than it really was.
At the end of the Buffalo game, Tom Brady had 324 yards passing, with Julian Edelman getting better and better upon his return with 104 yards passing. RB James White continued to shine aerially with ten receptions. They're hoping Rob Gronkowski continues getting healthier and he had four receptions on MNF. Chris Hogan and Josh Gordon were quiet, but the weaponry has grown throughout the season. The run-game was weird for the Pats, with Sony Michel out of action. Their leading rusher on Monday was WR/return-man Cordarrelle Patterson of all people. Against a better opponent, we'll see if that hole on offense will cost them. Michel was really performing well and New England has always been able to fashion a run-game, even with a cabaret approach. We will have to see.
After getting lit up in consecutive games against the Chiefs and Bears, the Pats' defense found things more to their liking on Monday, albeit against a more-dilapidated offense with the Bills really struggling in that area. We saw Trey Flowers tearing it up up-front, with Kyle Van Noy getting two sacks, and the secondary finally registered a game-changing play with the McCourty pick-six. All in all, the defense looked as impactful as they had all season. Things get harder this week against a Packers' offense that has a lot more to contain. But they looked good.
The Packers have been looking better and they figure to be ultra-urgent in this spot, as a loss would really put them in a hole. And truth be told, the Patriots want to win, of course, but can afford to slip up. I see the Packers matching up well against the Patriots defensively, with Rodgers and Company able to do enough damage to keep this one at least respectable. We're taking the Packers.
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