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Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Point Spread - Pick

Green Bay Packers (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (9-1 SU, 4-5-1 ATS)
Week 12 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, November 24, 2019 at 8:20PM EST
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
TV: NBC

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: GB +3/SF -3
Over/Under Total: 46

The Green Bay Packers come to Levi's Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers in a high-stakes week 12 showdown on Sunday Night Football. This should be a good one between two teams that have turned things around to become the class of the conference. Last week, the 8-2 Packers had a bye-week, getting a chance to rest their bones after a successful start to the season. Before the break, they beat Carolina, 24-16. Despite the bye, it's a trying period for the Packers, with 4 road games out of five and two straight on the road coming up now. They will be taking on a Niners team that was able to put the first loss of the season behind them last week. But it wasn't easy, with the 49ers overcoming a first-half deficit and a 16-point Arizona lead at one point to pull away from the Cardinals, 36-26. Will they continue pouring it on or will they run into another wall this week?

With wins over Chicago, Dallas, and Kansas City on the road, the Packers have been able to show their mettle away from home, losing just once on the road this season so far. They've been able to do a lot of things this season, first letting a stifling defense win games for them, before their offense kicked it into another gear and started taking the lead. In fact, we've seen the defense ebb over recent weeks, allowing a bit more scoring than they'd like. They want to work on that as the postseason nears. But with Aaron Rodgers, they're never out of a game and several times this season, we've seen him take this team, put it on his shoulders, and manufacture victories.

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We see Rodgers very accurate, making very few miscues, and making great use of a cast that might not have stars, but has some depth and variety. His 17/2 TD-to-INT ratio tells you all you need to know. RB Aaron Jones has been productive and has 14 touchdowns, while giving the Packers some fangs in their run-game, along with Jamaal Williams, who has 6 TDs and is also a big contributor aerially. Getting Davante Adams back really helps and with Marquez Valdez-Scantling and tight ends Jimmy Graham and Allen Lazard, there are a lot of targets for Rodgers to exploit. And with their defense downward-trending, this side of the ball is going to need to continue thriving.

After allowing a combined 35 points in their first three games, the Packers' defense hasn't really been able to keep pace. For what it's worth, however, the Packers are 8-2, so how bad can it be? It's just that after seeing what we thought could really be a special defense, we've seen a pretty ho-hum unit the last handful of weeks. The 16 points they allowed to Carolina in their last game, with a final moments goal-line stand to secure the win, they were pretty solid. The week off could give them the time to reflect and retool and get this back on the right track. In their last game Tramon Williams had a pick, with sack-leader Preston Smith adding two more. Some more of this stout and difference-making play is what they're hoping to see from here on out.

Last week was an important development for the Niners, putting the loss to the Seahawks more in the rearview after overcoming a 16-point first-half deficit to their divisional rival Arizona. After losing to Seattle, however, the Niners will be eager to post a win over another team that is fancied as a conference contender in the Packers. After all, their only setback is an OT loss to a good team and on Sunday, we saw some bumpy passages early, but also a team that appeared to get its act together on both sides of the ball.

On Sunday, the San Fran offense started cooking late and in a big way with a lot of different weapons stepping up to help make for a big day on this side of the ball. We see QB Jimmy Garoppolo putting up big numbers and on Sunday, he threw for 424 yards with four touchdowns. He did throw two picks, but he had this offense on the move. Rookie Deebo Samuel continues to shine and had 134 yards on Sunday, though he left the game with a shoulder injury. He was aided by Kyle Juszczyk, Richie James, Jr., Tevin Coleman, and Emmanuel Sanders. Even Kendrick Bourne and Jeff Wilson, Jr. caught TD passes, as a lot of players contributed to the effort . After missing two games, they could be getting tight end stud George Kittle back, which just gives them another element. They are looking as vital on offense as they have all season. By the same token, the mistakes could start to cost them, especially in a game against an opponent like this.

After allowing a big day of offense to Seattle and then somewhat to Arizona last week, the San Fran offense is looking to tighten up. How well this side of the ball plays could determine who ends up covering the spread this week. They tightened up late, allowing only ten second-half points to the Cardinals, but their rushing defense remains a potential sticking point. Their secondary is the top-ranked one in the league and makes a ton of plays. On Sunday, S DJ Reed ran back a fumble for a score to help seal it against Arizona.

It's always tough when two contenders face off this time of the season. I would expect urgency from both teams, with the Packers looking to add a great win coming off the rest, while the Niners look to add a win against a really good team that is in top form and has no excuses—something that can be argued they haven't done yet this season. I see a 49ers offense able to gain some late separation on a Green Bay defense that has depreciated in stoutness in recent weeks. I'll take the Niners in this one.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 3 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Packers vs. 49ers game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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