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Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans Point Spread - Pick

Green Bay Packers (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS)
Week 10 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 13, 2016 at 1PM EST
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
TV: Fox

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Betting Odds: GB -2.5/TEN +2.5
Over/Under Total: 49

The Green Bay Packers come to Nashville on Sunday to face the Tennessee Titans in a key week ten matchup. Both teams are coming off losses on Sunday. The Packers fell at home to the Colts, 31-26, as they have now lost two straight to fall to 4-4. They look to get the second half of their season off to a good start, as many more setbacks would really paint them into a corner. Tennessee fell to 4-5 on Sunday with 43-35 loss on the road to the Chargers. They had won 3 of 4 heading into that game and look to get back to the .500 mark with what would be a good win this week.

Going back to week 8 of last season, the Packers are 8-10 in their last 18 games. After a while, it makes sense to stop waiting around for the vintage Packers to resurface. It's simply not a mirage after a while. Their defense, which had shown measurable growth last season has been good against the run, but that's about it. And their offense, despite ample firepower, is a mid-pack group and has been for over a season. Through 4 games this season, they were 3-1 with their only loss a 3-point defeat to the Vikings. Now, they are headed in the wrong direction.

The offense has a lot of issues for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers threw 3 touchdowns on Sunday on nearly 300 yards passing. On the season, he has a 20-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. There still seems something off about his overall game—namely his movement and accuracy. It doesn't show up in the stats necessarily, but he's not making some of the throws we're used to seeing. He is also not getting a ton of support from the ground-game. Eddie Lacy is out of commission. It has got to the point where they're playing wide receiver Ty Montgomery at running back, as he gained 53 yards on the ground against the Colts. And there are still ample weapons in the aerial attack, with receivers Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Montgomery, Jeff Janis, and others. For them to have the 20th-ranked aerial attack is borderline disgraceful. Rodgers can't do it by himself, as he isn't getting good line play and he has no run-game on which to lean.

On Sunday, the Packers showed some menace against the run, as is their wont. They are the top-ranked run-defense in the NFL at 75 yards a game. That could come in handy against the run-heavy Titans offense. Then again, those totals might be tilted with opposing offenses having success against the sometimes-dicey Green Bay secondary. The Packers' defense is a strange study—a team that is ranked 17th against the pass and first against the run, but they've only been able to parlay it into the league's 19th-ranked defense in terms of points allowed.

The Titans didn't help their own cause on Sunday with turnovers spoiling any chance they had of winning. And their defense wasn't exactly at its best, either. Against the run, an area where the Titans had been pretty good, they were gashed by San Diego's Melvin Gordon to the tune of 196 yards. They got no turnovers off of the Chargers. And the San Diego defense was able to score two touchdowns. Obviously, in a one-score game, mistakes like that were the margin of difference in the game.

Marcus Mariota was good in the sense that he had over 300 yards, but his two picks were costly, one being returned for a touchdown. Another Mariota fumble was returned for a score. The San Diego defense was decent against the run on Sunday, with DeMarco Murray having one of his least-effective games of the season, despite scoring a TD. Mariota sprayed the ball around well, with Delanie Walker, Kendall Wright, Tajae Sharpe, and others having nice moments of production. They were not able to run the ball well and still manufactured 35 points on the day.

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The Tennessee defense wasn't all that horrible on Sunday, with the Titans' offense leading to as many damage as the defense caused. But it was definitely an off-performance for this side of the ball. They didn't get after the quarterback, secure any turnovers, or register a ton of key stops. In the first 8 games of the season, they allowed between 15 and 26 points seven times. In the past few weeks, they're not showing quite the same edge—something to keep an eye on.

It's easy to say it's an important game for both teams, but that's really what each team faces this week. A loss for either team could be hard from which to recover. Green Bay's grip on being a postseason team hasn't been this loose in a number of years, which could give way to a heightened level of urgency. And the Titans don't want to fall into a midseason swoon after making such strong gains in the first half of the season. The Tennessee defense is a worrisome element to this game, but the Green Bay offense just hasn't been clicking and I'm inclined to take the points on the home dog in this one.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Tennessee Titans plus 2.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Green Bay vs. Tennessee game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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