Indianapolis Colts (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Week 5 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, October 6, 2019 at 8:20PM EDT
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: NBC
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: IND +10/KC -10
Over/Under Total: 57
The Indianapolis Colts come to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. It's a nice AFC matchup and a good test for both teams. The Colts face a tough road-test early in a season where many felt they have over-performed after the sudden retirement of QB Andrew Luck. They didn't over-perform last week, losing straight-up as home favorites against the Raiders, 31-24. Both sides of the ball seemed to take a step back and they look for better this week, albeit in what would appear to be a far-harder spot. The Chiefs had it tough on the road last week to the Lions, never leading in the game until there were 20 seconds left, when a last-ditch drive secured the win for KC and kept them unbeaten.
A result from last season's playoffs might not have a ton of bearing on this contest. Using that as a barometer can often lead bettors astray. But with Andrew Luck in last season's divisional round of the playoffs in this very building, the Chiefs dominated en route to a 31-13 win. The result was never in question, as the Chiefs came out to an early lead and never really let Indy gain any foothold. Patrick Mahomes had a good game, connecting well with his varied cast of ball-catchers, namely TE Travis Kelce. The Chiefs also ran the heck out of the ball. On defense, they got after the quarterback, forced a fumble, and had the Indy offense in knots all afternoon. Falling behind quickly didn't help, as the Colts had to adjust their outlook on offense. So one might wonder after losing by 18 last time and now without Luck, what chances to the Colts really have? Still, after falling flat last week, look for them to respond.
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There were some surprising early scores on Sunday and one of them was that less than 7 minutes into the game, the Raiders led the Colts 14-0, as Indy couldn't stop Oakland early. Every time it looked like the Colts were working their way into the game, the Raiders established a distance and the Colts never really looked the part of a winner. Jacoby Brissett was not at his best and it was a weird time for him to be so errant, against an Oakland "D" that can be exploited. He was only 26-for-48 and threw a pick. There were some signs of life with three TD throws, but the rhythm and continuity of the offense was off. Eric Ebron, Chester Rogers, and Jack Doyle all caught TD throws, but not having TY Hilton in there seemed to disrupt the flow on offense. Adding to their woes was a poor game up-front, where the line was pushed around by the Oakland D-line, with the Colts running game stuffed more often than not. With their top receiver out, their run-game not resonating well, and their starting QB abruptly retiring, we started to see what can happen on flat days with this Indy offense.
Some personnel issues also seemed to register with the Colts' defense on Sunday. Malik Hooker and Darius Leonard, two key components of a rising "D" were out of action. On Sunday, they got better late, but weren't very clutch in key spots, as Oakland always had the upper-hand. They gave up a very efficient day to Carr, while Oakland ran the ball very well. After giving up 17 to Tennessee and just 24 against Atlanta the previous week, allowing 31 to a road Oakland team coming off two straight lopsided losses was a letdown. It would make sense that the defense we saw last week against an inconsistent Oakland offense would figure to struggle against a Kansas City bunch led by Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead.
The Chiefs really had their hands full last week and came through in shining colors—though perhaps not in the eyes of those who took them against-the-spread. It was their first non-cover of the season, but for the purposes of team-building and not spread-covering, it was probably helpful for them to pull through in a tough road spot against a previously-unbeaten Detroit team. Baltimore had pushed them a bit the previous week, but Detroit really put them to the test. They look to get back to their more conclusive ways this week in a spot where it looks doable.
Detroit did a pretty good job of keeping the Kansas City offense from running wild on Sunday. For much of the game, we saw a more-sedated Chiefs offense. Mahomes was relatively quiet, having his first game without a TD, but they kept plugging away. Mahomes started hitting a vast array of receivers, with Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins his main targets, but also getting good production with Demarcus Robinson, along with backs Derrel Williams and LeSean McCoy. A lot of people were chipping in. McCoy ran in a TD, with Williams punching it in twice. Still, with the KC defense scoring on the day, the point-output was not what we're used to seeing and one could expect a better showing on offense from a group looking to have a better day this time. Then again, when you're on the road out of conference against a good team, it's not always going to be a free-for-all.
The Kansas City defense has made some moves and they'll eventually pay off, but it's definitely not the best part of the team. Matthew Stafford had a really big day through the air for Detroit, while their running game flourished with Kerryon Johnson going for 125 yards. They got after Stafford pretty well, with Chris Jones up to his usual menacing ways, and first-year Chief Tyrann Mathieu even getting a sack. And there was one really key big play, which tipped the game in their favor with Bashaud Breeland returning a fumble 100 yards for a score. But if you're Indy and thinking about how you can win this game, this is the angle you're pondering. Maybe Brissett and Company, especially if Hilton is back, can make a run at the cover by exploiting a Chiefs' defense that isn't going to fire every week.
Indy will carry some urgency into this, while also not having anyone really expecting them to win. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are unbeaten and with a team they dominated in their last game, maybe they won't be at their peak mentally. In other words, there's a definite angle here that urgency and need will propel the Colts to perform a little over their heads. I just think that after some slogging last week, we will see a smoother-operating Chiefs' offense, as they pull away late for the win and cover at Arrowhead.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 10 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Sunday Night Football game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
