Free Sports Picks: Home CFB CBB MLB MMA Boxing Super Bowl
LootMeister NFL Picks
Online SportsbooksBest Sportsbook Bonuses
GTBets

Inflated Point Spreads

NFL Betting: Dealing With Inflated Point-Spreads

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

What we’re looking for in NFL wagering is good value. And in a lot of NFL games, you see inflated point-spreads--odds that overly favor a specific team. They cease becoming good wagers because the value has been sucked out of them. In cases like these, we take the good value, which is obviously the opposite side. Or at least we proceed with extra caution when betting these teams.

The most visible teams receive the most attention. Teams that get the most attention usually have the bigger followings. And teams with big followings usually receive the most robust betting support. When you scan for point-spreads for a given Sunday, the ones that will likely have you more taken aback are the ones where the glam teams are laying gigantic numbers.

Take the Dallas Cowboys, for example. It seems like no matter how they’re actually playing, the line always reflects what people wish they were--a playoff team. In the past two seasons (this article written in 2013), they have covered only 12 times in 32 games. They are a nationally-followed team. People say they are perennial under-achievers, but maybe they just aren’t as good as people’s misplaced perception of them would indicate.

And when betting on these teams, the lines can even be more inflated in isolated games. It’s bad enough when they’re just mixed up in the morass of games on Sunday afternoon. But games played on a Thanksgiving, a Saturday or Thursday, a Sunday night, or especially a Monday Night receive a lot of extra betting action. In those cases there will be even less value betting on the NFL poster teams.

TIRED OF YOUR CREDIT CARD NOT WORKING AT YOUR ONLINE SPORTSBOOK? END THAT PROBLEM TODAY BY SIGNING UP AT BOVADA SPORTSBOOK!

This equation is even more evident in the postseason and in the Super Bowl. Even more attention is paid to these games, making the betting action fast and heavy. The bookies know that the glamor team of the equation will receive its share of action, so the line is set to tantalize the other side. Therefore, the other side has greater value. At the same time, those lines do take into account the heightened sense of urgency that comes in the postseason, which could make those few points worth of difference irrelevant.

Sometimes, the hype machine takes over. Take the 2011 Denver Broncos, for example. Tebow-mania was in full bloom. The Broncos were over-achieving in a big way. And Tebow and Company did cover a lot of spreads in the beginning. But by the time the hype really set in, suddenly Denver wasn’t a great value anymore. Those who hopped aboard late were left in the cold, as Denver failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games. Usually by the time the rest of the world knows, whatever was hot has already cooled off.

Other factors can lead to an inflated point-spread. When the opponent of the team has some high-profile injuries, take a close look. The line could have been adjusted to account for injuries that might not be so devastating. Sometimes, a player’s name-value surpasses what he has meant to the team in that specific season. So if a quarterback or running back with a big name goes down, see if there isn’t a possibility that a change in personnel won’t actually be beneficial--or at least not as devastating as the spread is saying.

Also be aware of hysterical media reporting. They need to fill up a lot of time on the air waves, so they might get carried away at times. You hear all kinds of extreme stories throughout the year about coaches on the hot seat or players who are under fire for not getting it done. Guys can get buried prematurely. In 2011, after the New York Giants fell to 6-6, you couldn’t watch ESPN without hearing about whether Tom Coughlin would get fired. A few months later, he coached his team to a Super Bowl win. That ridiculous chatter could have resonated with some people and they would certainly regret allowing that to influence them.

This is not an automatic equation. A lot of teams are hyped, have big followings, and play in the key spots precisely because they kick a lot of tail. Just because you’re getting a couple points of good value on Jacksonville against the Patriots doesn’t mean New England isn’t going to drop the hammer. Seeing an inflated point-spread isn’t an open invitation to always take the other team. But it doesn’t hurt to get good value on a bet and think twice about making wagers where the value is poor.

Share this article with friends:

Leave a comment:

SAVE BIG MONEY BY BETTING AT -105 REDUCED ODDS!
Quit wasting your hard earned money! Make the switch from -110 to -105 odds today
You'll be so glad that you did! Click Here!
Doc's Sports NFL Picks

NFL Betting

  • Reduced Juice - Loot explains how reduced odds football betting works and where you can find this valuable asset.
  • What is a Point Spread? - Many new to the game struggle to understand why one side has a (+) while the other has a (-) in front of a team. We explain what the spread is and how it works.
  • Football Bets - All the different types of wagers that you can make when betting on football games.
  • What Professional Handicappers Do - Learn the tricks of the trade and increase your odds of beating the books!
  • Key Numbers - The article that bookies don't want you to read!
  • NFL Betting Quiz - Test your football wagering prowess with Loot's 10 question quiz!
  • Super Bowl 52 Predictions - Loot gives his preseason picks for which teams are most likely to win "the big game" along with middle of the road and a longshot that is sure to surprise you!
  • 2017 NFL Season Wins Predictions - Loot breaks down every team and gives his opinion on how they'll do vs. the number!
  • 2017 NFL Bye Weeks - The first set start in Week 5 and the final byes take place in Week 11. Loot also gives tips on betting on teams coming off byes.
  • 2017 NFL Coaching Changes - We seem to be in an era where football coaches become disposable in an instant if they don't win. 2016 was no different as a handful of teams made the switch. Check out who went where right here!

MISC.

  • Famous Football Players - Biographies of the best and greatest NFL football players of all-time.
  • Greatest NFL Players of All Time - A list of all time greats at each position. Each position has it's own dedicated article!
  • Best Quarterbacks of All Time - Joe Montana heads our list of top 10 QB's, however, Tom Brady is a sure bet to give him a run for his money by the time his career is said and done.
  • Best Running Backs of All Time - We list the top 10 greatest ball carriers of all-time. The order may be debatable, as Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton all brought something special to the gridiron.
  • Football Lingo - One must be very familiar with all of the terms, slang and jargon associated with this game to win at football betting. Find a slew of pigskin terminology right here!
  • Football Quotes - Funny and memorable sayings from around the National Football League including comments made by Vince Lombardi and John Madden.

Other Great Sites

  • Predictem - Weekly NFL picks from one of the most knowledgeable sports handicappers on the web. Tons of great football betting advice articles here too!
Reduced Juice Sports Betting 100% Sportsbook Bonus Best Parlay Odds Online