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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns Point Spread - Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS)
Week 11 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 19, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
TV: CBS

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: JAC -7.5/CLE +7.5
Over/Under Total: 37.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars come to FirstEnergy Stadium on Sunday for a week 11 AFC matchup with the Cleveland Browns. The Jags scored a wild win over the Chargers on Sunday, winning in overtime, 20-17, for their third straight win to take their record to 6-3. They now visit a winless Browns team that seemed headed for possibly their first win of the season, before collapsing late and losing to Detroit on Sunday, 38-24. Can they notch their first win of the season this week or will Jacksonville keep building their case as an interesting contender coming out of the AFC?

Cleveland is 0-9 and there's only so much you can say about that. But the real losers lately are those who have been betting on Cleveland. With a 7-point lead late in the third quarter on Sunday and getting 10.5 points, they couldn't even cover the spread, losing by 14 points, with three late touchdowns from Detroit. Going back to 2015, the number of spreads they have covered is amazingly-low. You'd think they would get some good betting value, with it not being easy to get the general betting public to bet on a team that is as in the dumps as the Browns are. Yet still, however many points they are getting, it's rarely enough. Late collapse notwithstanding, they did some nice things on Sunday and hope for a more-complete performance on Sunday at home against the Jags this week.

Cleveland quarterback DeShone Kizer threw another pick on Sunday, but wasn't bad overall with 232 yards through the air and a TD. He also ran one in and had 57 yards rushing. After all, with injuries and underwhelming performances up-front, a vaunted offensive line hasn't been that great this season. They got some needed production on the ground with Kizer moving well, in addition to 90 yards and a TD from Isaiah Crowell and 54 yards from Duke Johnson. Through the air, Kenny Britt caught a TD pass, with TE Seth DeValve adding 70 yards receiving. Late in the third quarter, they led 24-17, with both sides of the ball responsible for what happened from there, with the defense collapsing and the offense not getting on the board again for the rest of the game.

The Cleveland defense did not have a banner game on Sunday. Even with the Browns off to a 10-0 start and leading late in the third, it never seemed like the "D" was going to be able to hold down the Lions' offense. Detroit was even able to run the ball, something they haven't been able to do in recent weeks. When the team needed this side of the ball to step up late, they just weren't there. It's a defense that has talent on the rise—guys like Joe Schobert, Jabrill Peppers, Myles Garrett, Christian Kirksey, and others. And they have been good against the run this season. But despite being average against the pass and good against the run statistically, they are second-last in points allowed. And they haven't been very clutch, despite a few games being up in the air late.

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The Jaguars really pulled one out of the bag against the Chargers on Sunday. The Chargers looked to be running out the clock up by three late, when a fumble was recovered, with a bunch of late turnovers seeing teams trade possessions, with Jacksonville tying it with three seconds left with a field goal, winning in late-overtime when they picked Rivers off and set up the game-winning field goal. At the end of the day, it was a weird game, but one that the Jags won, again getting a big assist from a playmaking defense.

No one is happier with the winning result on Sunday than QB Blake Bortles, whose late-game mistakes nearly cost them a chance to win. At the end of the day, he threw for 273 yards and a TD, adding some useful plays with his legs to get the Jacksonville over the top. A big run by Corey Grant for a 54-yard touchdown was big, but after coming back from a one-game suspension, RB Leonard Fournette was quiet with 33 yards on 17 carries. Bortles hit Marqise Lee for a TD score, while making nice connections with Allen Hurns and Keelan Cole. We see new faces like Moore and Cole making more plays, as Jacksonville looks for more playmaking from someone other than Fournette. All in all, it wasn't a great day on this side of the ball. But they have shown the last two weeks that they can win without big contributions from Fournette and when not everything is going their way on this side of the ball.

Jacksonville's defense is loaded and was again a big part of the win on Sunday. Big turnovers were again a part of the equation. Tashaun Gipson recovered a key fumble, stripped by Myles Jack. AJ Bouye picked off a pass. Telvin Smith had a nice game with Jalen Ramsey also very strong at the corner position. With Marcell Dareus up-front the last two weeks, we've seen more robust resistance from the Jacksonville run-defense. It took some good fortune and another Chargers' late-game comedic collapse to get the win, but it wasn't luck. This defense has been making plays all year and should continue to provide that kind of playmaking.

This could be a tricky one for the Jaguars on the road. They can't overlook the Browns and lower their edge, as a lackadaisical Jaguars team can really put out a dud on a given week. After three straight wins, they can't afford to be caught sleeping this week. The Browns didn't cover the spread on Sunday, but showed a certain spark that could resonate into something more this week and beyond. We're going to take the leap with the Browns and the points this week.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Cleveland Browns plus 7.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Jaguars vs. Browns game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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