Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8 SU, 4-6-2 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Week 14 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, December 6, 2018 at 8:20PM EST
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: JAC +4.5/TEN -4.5
Over/Under Total: 38
The Jacksonville Jaguars come into Nashville this week for an AFC South matchup with the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football. This wasn't the marquee matchup the league was hoping for, with the Jaguars having a horrible season and the Titans barely clinging to relevancy heading into week 14. Still, both teams managed to win last week, showing they still have some fight left. Snapping a miserable 7-game losing streak, the Jags scored one of the stranger wins of the season in a 6-0 shutout upset over the surging Colts. Tennessee, meanwhile, was able to get to the .500 mark with a 26-22 win at home over the Jets. They really need this one at home to stay in it after what has been an up-and-down season. A whole lot has changed since week three, when the Titans managed a 9-6 road-win over the Jaguars.
It's been a tough season for a Jaguars team that almost made it to the Super Bowl last year. After a 3-1 start to the season, they went on a big 7-game slide. The last four being close was little consolation for a team that had such high expectations. On Sunday, however, against a Colts team that had won five straight, they were close to their vintage form—at least on defense. The shutout showed a lot of things that made them so successful last year. On offense, that's another question, with the Jags' highlights coming few and far between in 2018.
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When a team that made it to the conference title game the prior season enters week 14 the next season with the starting QB benched, it tells you all you need to know about an offense. Blake Bortles is out and Cody Kessler is in. Throwing for 150 yards and no touchdowns is hardly a rave review, but 18-for-24 passing and no turnovers is at least capable. They will get Leonard Fournette back this week after a one-week suspension, but this side of the ball hasn't carried their share of the weight this season. In the last two months, they're averaging just over 14 points a game.
The Jacksonville defense has not been permitted to shine this season, getting so little help from the other side of the ball. When you're dropping game after game, people tend to lose sight of what a team might be good at. At the end of the day, they have been pretty good—all things considered. The secondary of Jalen Ramsey, AJ Bouye, Teshaun Gipson, Ronnie Harrison, and others is still tip-top. And keeping Andrew Luck out of the end zone on Sunday illustrates that, especially with how good the Indy offense has been of late. And while it was a long time ago (at least in NFL terms), the Jaguars' defense was good enough to keep the Titans out of the end zone, as well. How well this side of the ball delivers will have a big say in this game.
It wasn't easy on Sunday for the Titans, overcoming a 16-point deficit, with Marcus Mariota hitting Corey Davis in the game's final minute for the go-ahead score. While overcoming big leads at home to the Jets doesn't speak well of where the Titans are, they were able to stop a two-game slide and stay vaguely in the wild card picture. Mariota overcame a rough start, including a pick-six and long stretches of ineffectiveness, only to provide the clutch finish when the Titans really needed it.
Mariota was able to get the job done on Sunday, with the bulk of his 282 yards coming in the second half. Taywan Taylor was big, with 104 yards receiving, with Tajae Sharpe making some key receptions, and Davis catching the late TD. Derrick Henry had a good game, with Dion Lewis adding some nice runs, along with Mariota chipping in with some scampers. When it's clicking, the run-game isn't bad, though applying it consistently has been a major issue. The Jaguars aren't as good against the run, but if they look anything like they did last week, it could be trouble for a Tennessee offense that is hardly automatic. That line looms as a big concern, especially if the Jacksonville "D" is truly rounding into shape.
The Titans' defense isn't exactly trending upward after allowing 72 combined points in their two-game slide, before giving up 22 to the Jets on Sunday. Still, as the Titans' offense slowly got their act together on Sunday, the defense was able to play in tandem and help deliver the crucial comeback-win. They gave up very little in the second half, allowing two field goals, as the offense mounted the comeback. Still, it's an on-again/off-again group that has manifested in many different forms this season. With just ten turnovers, they haven't been making a lot of plays. And their pass-rush has been uneven. With Jets' running back Isaiah Crowell having a big day against them last week, one wonders if the Jags' "D" can do damage this week.
Neither team is very bankable. You could pick either side here and any number of different scenarios could end up playing out on Thursday. None of them would be especially surprising. In terms of urgency, it's understandable to assume the Titans will want this one more at home, with a loss basically dashing their hopes in a crowded AFC wild card picture. I just see the Jaguars defense being a major thorn in the Titans' side, making some big plays, and helping Jacksonville get the cover on the road.
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