Kansas City Chiefs (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6 SU, 3-5-2 ATS)
Week 11 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, November 18, 2019 at 8:15PM EST
Where: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: KC -3,5/LAC +3.5
Over/Under Total: 40
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers face off at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City in week 11 MNF action. This AFC West battle should be a good one for the Mexican NFL fans. This is the first meeting of the season between these divisional rivals. For the Chargers, this is it. They either go on a run or it's curtains on what thought some could be a special 2019 season. On Thursday Night Football last week, another dud led to a 26-24 loss at Oakland, with mistakes and error-prone play again manifesting and undermining the entire operation. Kansas City, meanwhile, welcomed the return of Patrick Mahomes on Sunday, despite not coming away with the win, losing in a tough one to Tennessee, 35-32, when a Tennessee TD with 23 seconds left spoiled Mahomes' return to action. They look for better this week in a tough road divisional spot.
Injuries are one thing, but the Chargers' issues just run a lot deeper than that. The recipe for success, which took hold so well last season, just didn't deliver in '19. And again, having key guys across all areas missing for a variety of reasons doesn't help. It's difficult to find a part of the team that hasn't been compromised by injuries, holdouts, and the like. The offensive line has been decimated. The skill positions have been affected. All levels of defense have taken hits. Beyond that, their better players who have been healthy have been inconsistent—guys like Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon. Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and some guys on the other side of the ball, as well.
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Rivers has always been a little high on the INT count, but he's really been off this season, failing to rally this offense when needed most. He had three more picks on Thursday, with pretty quiet nights from Allen, Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler. Gordon had his second straight good game in a row, which is a promising sign, but we're not seeing big plays. We're not seeing clutch plays. They're just sort of out there taking up space, making good things happen from time to time, but not the impact-making group of last season. And while those guys shoulder a lot of the blame, there aren't a lot of quarterbacks who can thrive behind this line. They gave up a veritable pass-rushing bonanza to Oakland last week and are really suffering. Now, they're even more banged-up and from top-to-bottom, might have one of the more-vulnerable fronts in the conference.
The Chargers' defense hasn't been so bad, considering the bad spots they're being put in by their offense. It looked like they were getting it together somewhat with the two-game winning streak that led to the Oakland defeat. Against Oakland, however, a few things resurfaced that weren't good, namely their weakness in defending the run and giving up big running plays. In addition, they never seem to get better in games where they're right in there. It hasn't been very often this season that the "D" delivered in a pinch late in a dogfight. Still, with Melvin Ingram back in sterling form, along with Joey Bosa, the pass-rush can be robust. And against Mahomes, having a rigid pass-defense is key. For all their issues in terms of missing personnel, that part of the team has been very rigid, despite not being quite the playmaking unit of last season.
Granted, 6-4 isn't great for the Chiefs with all their expectations and watching their defense wilt to the Titans wasn't a good look. But moving ahead, getting Mahomes back in there is more important than all of that. With a game now under his belt, look for him to be more up-to-speed for the purposes of the final six games of the season. Mahomes is a game-changer. But let's face it—a lot of other issues continue to undermine the team's goal, which is a lofty one. There is still ample work to be done before the Chiefs again resemble the Super Bowl contender they were last season.
With 36 completions, 446 passing yards, and three TDs, Mahomes had his moments on Sunday, but the Chiefs didn't get the most of what they had on Sunday, leaving points on the table, while the other side of the ball really let them down. Damien Williams had some nice runs and a better ground-attack would be key in igniting this offense. With 157 yards, Tyreek Hill is rounding into potent form and it will be interesting to see how well he and Mahomes work going down the stretch. Travis Kelce had a good game with a TD, with Mecole Hardman catching a 63-yard touchdown. The aerial cast is deep and if the line can pass-protect a little better, Mahomes could make full use of it.
The Kansas City defense remains a massive roadblock to success on a grand scale. Problem is that it isn't getting any better. The moves made haven't resonated that well and they remain one of the weakest in the conference. When Tennessee is running roughshod over you, it's a problem. The Chiefs couldn't stop anything late, particularly Derrick Henry, who ran for 188 yards, much of it coming late. Their inability to steward the team to victory with a two-score lead in the final quarter was upsetting to watch—with no late-game clutch, getting run over late.
The Chargers can be dangerous in spots like this. Mahomes has a game under his belt and the feeling on the part of many will be to anticipate a lively Chiefs' bunch against a Chargers' team that simply isn't very good. But against this defense, perhaps the Chargers can see some good things take hold, just as Tennessee did last week. But while it might be the square move, I still see the Chiefs getting better off of last week and holding the Chargers off for a cover on MNF.
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