Kansas City Chiefs (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS)
Week 11 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, November 19, 2018 at 8:15PM EST
Where: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, California
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: KC +2.5/LAR -2.5
Over/Under Total: 63
The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football in a week 11 powerhouse-matchup in Mexico City. For the Chiefs, this is a big test right before they get to the bye week. They are the top team in the AFC in a won-loss sense, taking on a team considered to be a major force in the NFC. The Chiefs took care of business at home on Sunday with a 26-14 win over the Cardinals. The Rams beat the Seahawks on Sunday, 36-31, getting back on the winning track after suffering their first loss of the season the previous week. Also looking at a bye the next week, they would like nothing more than a win here against a really good team. After losing to the Saints a few weeks ago, this would be a statement-win here. That can be said for both teams.
The Chiefs would like to get homefield-advantage throughout the playoffs if possible, as they continue making their push as the top-dog in the AFC. And like their opponent, they've played every week and are perhaps a bit weary, having missed covering two of the last three weeks after covering the first seven games of the season. And truth be told, their defense is a depreciated unit on the road. But with their high-powered offense and their winning ways, they look to make a big statement this week.
The Kansas City offense is what has gotten them here. It's the top-scoring offense in the NFL, led by a gun-slinging quarterback who has been better than anyone thought he would be. Patrick Mahomes had another nice showing last week, even if the Chiefs' offense wasn't its normal explosive self. He still managed to connect with Tyreek Hill twice for touchdowns, with TE Travis Kelce catching 6 balls. Kareem Hunt ran for 71 yards and Spencer Ware ran for a score. The Cardinals' defense played tough and maybe the Chiefs weren't that pumped-up for their 16-point underdog opponents. I'd expect them to be more on-point for this game.
The defense is a concern for the Chiefs. Then again, they are 9-1, so maybe it's not that big of a deal from a W-L standpoint. Still, looking ahead for a projected deep playoff run, it's something to consider. And when playing teams like this, it also looms large. In their other games against teams that can be explosive, the Chiefs gave up 37 to the Steelers and 43 to the Patriots. While their offense can pile on points, they might not be able to keep pace if the defense doesn't play better in spots like this. In the four games since losing to the Pats last month, the Chiefs have given up a total of 68 points—an average of just 17 points a game. That was against the Bengals, Broncos, Browns, and Cardinals, however, but it's still a sign that they're on the upswing.
The Rams are doing well at 9-1. There is nothing you can say about that at the end of the day. Their offense truly cannot be stopped. Week in and week out, Jared Goff is putting up big numbers, as are his numerous aerial weapons. And Todd Gurley continues to roll, as he should eclipse 1000 yards early in this game. Still, there are some issues. Their defense seems to be deteriorating over the course of the season. Unlike the last great Rams team, the Greatest Show on Turf, this team hasn't been a marvel at the betting windows with a tepid four covers heading into week 11. In their last seven games, they've covered the spread just once.
Again, attempting to besmirch the Rams along the lines of their offense is a futile endeavor. Goff is already over 3000 yards with 22 touchdowns. He brings everyone along for the ride. Both Brandin Cooks and massively-underrated Robert Woods will soon eclipse 1000 yards this season, though losing Cooper Kupp hurts. Gurley helps in that regard with 40 receptions and four scores. On the ground, he's a reliable workhorse and quite possibly the most-productive and consistent back in the league this season. Bringing it all together is a line that gets the job done. They're helping spring a run-game that is close to 5 yards a carry, while keeping Goff out of the line of fire.
Getting too particular with how the Rams got to 9-1 might qualify as "missing the point." Still, whether you're trying to figure out how they'll fare in the postseason or against high-powered teams like this, you have to ask the tough questions. The Chiefs are really the only team that can compete with the Rams in terms of offensive firepower, making the fact that LA has given up a combined 103 points in their last three games more of a concern. It's not a cause for panic perhaps, especially as they could just be in a midseason slump. But it's concern, both in terms of where they're headed and how well they deliver in a betting-sense. Their secondary is leaky and the pass-rush is one-dimensional. With such big names like Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters, Dexter Fowler, and so many others, there isn't the merit to match the star-power as of yet.
Both defenses elicit concern in this matchup, but how else should it be when the two top offenses in the league do battle? I see the Chiefs' defense having some issues here—both in this exotic locale and against an offense that seems above being stopped in a meaningful way this season. While the teams they've played might have something to do with this, I see the Chiefs defense as having found more answers at this point than a Rams defense which is downward-trending. I see the Chiefs getting the cover in Mexico this week on MNF.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Chiefs plus 2.5 points. Bet this game for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!
