Miami Dolphins (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Week 4 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, September 29, 2016 at 8:25PM EST
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: NFL Network
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: MIA +7/CIN -7
Over/Under Total: 44.5
The Miami Dolphins come into Paul Brown Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are 1-2 and face a chance to push it to .500 this week, making this a big game for both teams. Cincinnati was disappointing at home last week in a 29-17 loss to the Broncos. They're at home again and can ill-afford to drop two straight before they go on the road for back-to-back games. Miami was able to register their first win of the season on Sunday with an overtime 30-24 win over Cleveland. After an 0-2 start, they look to notch a really big win and make it two in a row on the short week.
Miami had their hands full at home against Cleveland and all things considered, going to OT with the Browns at home isn't all that impressive. But when a team wins its first game, you don't want to get too picky. They fell behind after taking the lead 7-0, as a Cleveland FG and a Ryan Tannehill interception returned for a touchdown gave the Browns the 10-7 lead. Two second-Tannehill TD passes made it 24-13, but the Browns were hard to shake and a Cleveland TD with a two, followed by a FG tied the game. An 11-yard TD run by Ajayi in overtime gave the Dolphins the hard-earned win.
The Miami offense did its job on Sunday, with Tannehill over 300 yards and able to atone for his early miscue with three TD passes. Four picks in his last two games isn't a great development, but again, a win is a win. Tannehill connected well with Jarvis Landry, who caught 7 balls for 120 yards and a score. Kenny Stills had 76 yards receiving, while DeVante Parker caught 5 balls. RB Damien Williams also hauled in a TD score. The run game was spread around to Kenyan Drake, Ajayi, Williams, Isaiah Pead, and even Landry had 16 yards on the ground. They could be getting Arian Foster back too, which could give the ground-game a little boost. All told, they gained a respectable 115 yards on 25 carries with their cabaret approach.
The Miami defense wasn't great on Sunday, allowing a Cleveland bunch that is already down to their third-string QB to keep pace with them on offense. Browns' QB Cody Kessler was pretty effective, Terrelle Pryor made a huge impact on the game really for the first time in his career, and Cleveland ran the ball at 5.3 yards per clip. Still, they tightened up late and in overtime to give the offense a chance to win the game. Ndamukong Suh had 1.5 sacks, while line-mates Cameron Wake and Andre Branch added sacks. Reshad Jones and Kiko Alonso were making plays left-and-right. The secondary kept the Browns out of end zone aerially and allowed just 17 points. They gave up 12 to the Seahawks at home in week one, before not really doing very well against New England in week two. How will they do against a Cincy offense that will be looking to hit its stride?
The Bengals didn't lose to just anybody on Sunday, as the defending Super Bowl champs came into town and got the win. Cincy led 17-16 after a 4th-quarter FG, before the Broncos responded with two touchdowns. The offense has just been off-key after scoring 16 against Pittsburgh and then 17 against the Broncos. Still, those were against good teams, with the Steelers loss in Heinz Field and a still-vintage Denver defense last week. Whatever the case, look for the Bengals to start feeling the urgency this week, making this a double-tough task for the Dolphins. You'd like Miami's chances better if the Bengals were 3-0, but at 1-2, they will be shot out of a cannon on Thursday. It's been five years since they started the season 1-2.
Not all was lost on Sunday against a Denver "D" where no team is able to succeed offensively. Having struggled to get their run-game going, Jeremy Hill was able to score two TDs on 97 yards rushing. It's just that the aerial attack was not clicking against the superb Denver secondary. After throwing for 366 yards in each of his first two games, Andy Dalton managed only 206 against Denver. Cincinnati receiver AJ Green caught 8 balls, but for just 77 yards, as the passing-attack just wasn't able to make an imprint on the game at all. Could they be getting TE Tyler Eifert back? That would make a big difference to this offense.
QUIT THROWING AWAY YOUR HARD EARNED LOOT! BET ON THE DOLPHINS VS. BENGALS GAME AT DISCOUNTED ODDS -105 TODAY AT 5DIMES
The Cincinnati home defense on Sunday didn't shine late by allowing a pair of Trevor Siemian touchdown passes in the fourth quarter. Prior to that, they were respectable and the pass-rush was giving the rookie Broncos QB problems. But they couldn't hold firm late. Against the Steelers, they game up 24 points in Heinz Field, not a disgraceful number. And they gave up 22 to the Jets. So far this season, they've been OK, but not quite as robust as previous Cincinnati defenses and not terribly clutch in week 3. They'll try to click into gear this week.
Still, there seems to be something palpably "off" about the Bengals. And the fact is that teams can't succeed forever. The Bengals have been on the precipice for years and maybe they have lost their mojo just enough to make them also-rans. But teams lose two in a row all the time and not all of them are also-rans. I look for the Bengals to respond to this situation, as a 1-3 record would be a tough pill to swallow before hitting the road for two straight weeks. I think the Bengals make a statement on Thursday.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Cincinnati Bengals minus 7 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Miami vs. Cincinnati game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
