NFL Futures Betting: Most Passing Touchdowns in 2017
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Which NFL quarterback will throw for the most touchdowns in the 2017 NFL regular season? Answering that question correctly could be worth a pretty penny. When we turn our attention to this futures bet, we notice a lot of worthy candidates. A lot of NFL offenses are pass-heavy nowadays and as a result, any number of viable candidates are on the odds board.
It's a number that can fluctuate a lot, especially compared to other stats you can bet on in NFL football futures bets. Tom Brady, for example, has led this category four times, with as little as 28 touchdowns all the way up to 50. Last year's league-leader in this category was Aaron Rodgers with 40 touchdown throws. Brady led the previous season with 36. Andrew Luck led with 40 the previous season. But in 2013, Peyton Manning put up 55 TD passes. It's not a very stable number. But for the most part, for the guy you want to win this category, you should be able to project that player putting up about 40 touchdowns—not an easy thing to do.
It's important to take the offenses into account. Naturally, you want to bet on a QB who is part of an offense that offers a big dose of aerial theatrics. Part of that is having an excellent crew of receivers. So it's key to take note of offseason moves or any major injuries that may have taken place. Account for the departure of any key receivers, as well as the arrival of any players who could become key cogs in the team's aerial approach.
Beyond that, take note of the receivers' viability in red-zone situations. Some receivers, tight ends, and even pass-catching backs are very useful when in-close. A lot of teams run the ball when in close. Remember, it's not passing yards we're thinking about here, but touchdowns. So looking at a team's receiving crew isn't really enough. What needs to be considered is how often a quarterback will try to throw for touchdowns when threatening to score and how apt his receiving crew is at that specialized form of the game. There are some receivers who will be near 1000 yards with just a few TD catches. Then you have tight ends who have 8-10 TD catches who aren't typically putting up huge yardage.
Here are the odds to lead the NFL in TD passes in 2017. We will follow that with a list of our best choices.
Betting Odds to Lead the NFL in Touchdown Passes
Tom Brady +425
Aaron Rodgers +450
Drew Brees +600
Matt Ryan +700
Andrew Luck +1200
Philip Rivers +1200
Ben Roethlisberger +1200
Eli Manning +2000
Jameis Winston +2000
Derek Carr +2000
Marcus Mariota +3300
Russell Wilson +3300
Carson Palmer +3300
Kirk Cousins +4000
Matthew Stafford +4000
Andy Dalton +5000
Dak Prescott +5000
Our Favorite Choices:
Tom Brady (+425): The 4-time leader in this category looks to have one of his better receiving crews in recent memory. Brandin Cooks comes into the fold, which gives him yet another option. If Rob Gronkowski stays healthy, he's a huge red-zone presence. In 12 games last season, he tossed 28 TD scores and with a few breaks on the health front, that number will be a lot higher this season.
Aaron Rodgers (+450): Another perennial threat to lead this category, Rodgers was tops for the first time last season with 40 of them. That wasn't even his career-high, as he tossed 45 of them in 2011. He has three really good receivers and tight ends who also chip in when close. Rodgers figures to be taking to the air a lot this season and should again be among the league-leaders.
Drew Brees (+600): Another 4-time leader in touchdowns thrown, Brees is a perennial factor in this area. He hasn't thrown 40 or more touchdowns in four seasons, but his total of 37 last season was only 3 off the league-lead. It might be foolish to discount Brees when it comes to this category. Even at his age, he's still one of the better aerial forces in the game.
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Philip Rivers (+1200): With our last two choices, we're looking for betting value. Rivers at 12-to-1 odds would seem to qualify. He tied for the league-lead back in 2008 and threw 33 touchdowns last season, even with a receiving crew that was destroyed by injuries. With a closer to full-health pass-catching corps, Rivers could have an aerial bonanza on his hands this season and offers decent value at this price.
Derek Carr (+2000): After three seasons in the league, the best he has been able to do is throw 32 touchdowns. That would still be a way's off the league-lead in most seasons, but we're allowing some room for growth at 20-to-1 odds. With a couple extra pieces added to the fold, we could see Carr able to connect more in the end-zone this season and possible contend for the league-lead. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and make NFL futures bets on the 2017 football season by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
