New England Patriots (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. New York Jets (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS)
Week 7 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, October 21, 2019 at 8:15PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NE -9.5/NYJ +9.5
Over/Under Total: 42
The New England Patriots come to MetLife Stadium to play the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. The Patriots are coming off a bit of a long week with their last game being a Thursday Night Football win over the Giants, 35-14. The win moved them to 6-0 and they look very crisp as they make yet another championship run this season. In this AFC East battle, they face a familiar foe in the New York Jets, who moved to 1-4 with a surprising 24-22 win over the Cowboys on Sunday. Getting Sam Darnold back seemed to lift the whole team and they delivered the big win at home. Back at home this week, can they keep the momentum going?
One of the benefits of divisional play is a wealth of information, with the Pats and Jets both playing in the AFC East, It's especially useful when teams played less than a month ago, as these two squads did in Foxborough on September 22. The Patriots won, 30-14, but as huge 20-point favorites, they didn't cover the spread and the Jets showed that they can hang in there in this context—playing as large underdogs. In their first game, Tom Brady went over 300 yards and had a typical good day. The defense made a big impact, as it has done all season, They got after the quarterback and picked off Luke Falk. But with the Jets hanging in there with Luke Falk and now at home with their starting quarterback, maybe they can do better.
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It speaks volumes how the Patriots came out for this season looking like a team on a mission. With all their glory, they never really seem to phone it in. Whether it is over the course of a season or even in a single game, anticipating a letdown with this bunch has always paid off very little. And that's in many ways how they built a legacy—by maintaining a fever pitch for an entire season and the postseason. Sure, there will be letdowns here and there. One could see how this could even be one of those spots. Maybe Tom Brady is a little tired after a quick six games where he got hit a little bit. They're 6-0 with a stranglehold on the division and there isn't a ton of overall urgency. That could open the door for the Jets keeping this one in the ballpark. Then again, it's that sentiment that has led to a lot of people putting their money against the Pats, only to look up and see it's 31-10 in the third quarter, leaving bettors to ponder "What was I thinking?"
The New England offense is still a handful. Brady is protected by a dynamic offensive line and can pick defenses apart. Other than maybe Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon, there isn't much star-power on this offense besides Brady, but through the air, they get it done with a cabaret approach. Sony Michel is coming around at running back. Last Thursday, Tom Brady ran in two touchdowns—a rare sight indeed. It's really a committee-approach and through six games, it's worked wonderfully, Other than Buffalo giving them a little sweat a few weeks back, it's been a breeze.
Making it easy for the Patriots this season is a defense that looks potent and playmaking through six games. Their big-play secondary delivered on Thursday with Stephon Gilmore and Duron Harmon, both registering picks, with DE John Simon adding one. Kyle Van Noy had a sack and returned a fumble for a touchdown and they made life very hard on Giants' quarterback Daniel Jones. The run-game couldn't get anything going and Jones was just 15-for-31 for 161 yards. With Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins making play after play in the middle, along with the McCourty brothers and all those other beasts in the secondary, this "D" is the real deal. Will they again make life hard on the Jets offense this week?
The Jets certainly benefitted from having Sam Darnold back in there running the offense. That goes for both sides of the ball, as the defense seemed enlivened by the better production on the other side. With 338 yards through the air, he finally got this offense moving. His presence seemed to energize the playmakers on this team. Receivers Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson, and Demaryius Thomas were productive and against a Dallas team that was looking to break a two-game losing streak was no match for the Jets—only making a comeback later to make it look like a close game. Say what you will about Jets head coach Adam Gase. Sure, it fell flat in Miami and it took until week six this season for the Jets to notch their first win. But sometimes, he can dial up the right recipe and he ljust maybe tapped into something.
The numbers don't really paint the picture for how the well the Jets' defense played on Sunday against the Cowboys. On one hand, Dak Prescott threw for 277 yards, with Ezekiel Elliott going over 100 yards, but the Jets' defense was adept in limiting big plays from the Cowboys. Elliott's 105 yards came on 28 carries, while Prescott had no TD throws. The biggest play was 23 yards for the Cowboys, with most gains being for modest yardage. At home and with some support on the other side of the ball, we saw what a scrappy Jets' defense can do. They're pretty resilient against the run and stout up front. The secondary isn't great, but they looked suitable on Sunday.
I think the Jets' are pretty good for a 1-4 team. Darnold might be mistake-prone and he certainly stands to face harder resistance this week against the Patriots' defense, but he gives the offense new life than what they had without him. But let's face it, the Jets won a game. It's nothing worth having a parade. For the Patriots' it's routine. They start off the season 6-0 and people hardly bat an eyelash. I don't question whether the Jets found new life on Sunday, but I think a big reality sandwich in the form of their longtime tormentor will bring them down to earth some on TNF. I'm taking the Patriots.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the New England Patriots minus 9.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on games at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
