New Orleans Saints (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS)
Week 10 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: New Era Field, Buffalo, New York
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NO -2/BUF +2
Over/Under Total: 46
The New Orleans Saints come to New Era Field on Sunday for a week ten matchup with the Buffalo Bills. Last week wasn't kind to the Bills, as they were beaten conclusively on the road by the Jets, 34-21. Only two late touchdowns made the game look semi-respectable, but they were beaten badly to fall to 5-3. Still, their first half of the season has to be considered a rousing success and they'd like a win this week to not fall to 5-4 after a 5-2 start. They will face an incoming Saints squad that has really gotten on a roll with 6 straight wins. After an 0-2 start, the Saints have totally turned things around and on Sunday, they posted a big 30-10 win over the Bucs at home.
The Bills have certainly gotten a boost and appear to be on their way to good things in their first year under new head coach Sean McDermott. Still, one can't expect just one big uninterrupted upward ascent. There are going to be setbacks. Their formula for success is still not an ironclad one. If they can't run the ball well or make big plays on defense, they're not very good. They aren't all that stout against the pass and weren't that good against the run against the Jets, They don't rush the passer much and on offense, their aerial game is a bit muted at times. It's not an offense that can be expected to fire week in and week out. Still, for a team that hasn't been to the playoffs since the 1999 season, you don't want to nit-pick too much. They are definitely on the rise and have done well in the first half of the season.
There was some good news on the personnel front, with the Bills trading for wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. He didn't play against the Jets, but look for him to get some looks this week. Tyrod Taylor has been making due with what he has, but a receiver like Benjamin should really help. There is young talent to go along with Benjamin, with Nick O'Leary and Zay Jones (questionable) coming along, with Jordan Matthews and Deonte Thompson also able to make things happen. But the run-game is their bread-and-butter, with LeSean McCoy leading the way. With Taylor chipping in with his nimble legs and Mike Tolbert, they can really grind away on the ground.
The Buffalo defense has a lot to offer, along with some potential drawbacks that could end up preventing them from truly big things this season. The front, with Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Kyle Williams, and Adolphus Washington, has been good against the run, but they haven't really been manufacturing much of a pass-rush. They get good play in the middle with linebackers Ramon Humber, Lorenzo Alexander, and Preston Brown. With secondary members like Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Shareece Wright, and others, they are getting good plays, but not terribly-stout pass defense. With guys like Hyde having hauled in five picks this season, they are a resounding +11 in turnover ratio this season. Big plays can make up for porous play at times, though it's not always a dependable recipe for wins.
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The Saints now take to the road, but they have won three straight away from home, outscoring opponents by a combined score of 80-30. Not many would have been able to keep a straight face predicting they would be 6-2 with the abysmal way they started the season. Both sides of the ball have gotten their act together in dramatic fashion. The offense is sailing right along now, one of the best in the league. And the defense, which looked like it had regressed, is far better now, having allowed 76 combined points in their last 6 games. The Saints went from what looked to be a ragged bunch into legit contenders and that takes a lot of character and wherewithal.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees really has this offense humming along nicely now. He was 22-for-27 with 263 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday in the win. He has been very efficient of late. Through the air, WR Michael Thomas had a big game, with Alvin Kamara and Ted Ginn, Jr. hauling in TD passes. The contributions of Kamara have been impressive. In addition to his 84 yards receiving and a TD, he also ran for 68 yards and scored on the ground. Mark Ingram ran for 77 yards, as well. They haven't even seemed to fully tap into all their potential on this side of the ball. At the same time, they are offering a lot of firepower and balance, just like they did when they were contenders several seasons ago.
The about-face the New Orleans defense has done is almost more-impressive. Not able to stop much of anything in the first two weeks of the season, they have been quite serviceable lately. The secondary with Ken Crawley, Marshon Lattimore, Kenny Vacarro, Marcus Williams, and others have been invaluable. They are really getting after quarterbacks and on Sunday, they saw Alex Okafor, Cameron Jordan, Vonn Bell, and others in Jameis Winston's face. They don't have to be great with their defense, but they've been darned-good and during this 6-game stretch, they're a big reason there has only been one game that was within one score.
The Saints have proven their mettle on the road and don't seem likely to start phoning in games or letting their foot off the gas just because they've won 6 straight. Buffalo needs to have some urgency kick in now before they start to squander the great start. New Orleans is in a game where they are somewhat out of their element. This will be a tricky road assignment for the Saints and the Bills should be putting in a high-effort performance. I see New Orleans having more of a game on their hands than has been the case in recent weeks and I like Buffalo to be in this game in a big way. I'm taking the Bills.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Buffalo Bills plus 2 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Seahawks vs. Bills game by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
