New Orleans Saints (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS)
Week 13 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, November 29, 2018 at 8:20PM EST
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NO -7.5/DAL +7.5
Over/Under Total: 52.5
The New Orleans Saints come to AT&T Stadium for a week 13 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams are coming off Thanksgiving appearances that were successful. Dallas is suddenly in the driver's seat in the NFC East after winning their third in a row with a 31-23 win over the Redskins. After looking to be in the dumps, everything has shaken out well for the Cowboys the last several weeks, but they face a massive test with the incoming Saints, winners of ten in a row. On Thanksgiving, they beat Atlanta, 31-17, and are now in control with their eyes on getting homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
I think the Cowboys have some new life. Less than a month ago, the prognosis looked dreary at 3-5. Now they see their offense kicking and newly-acquired receiver Amari Cooper had as big a day on Thursday as a Dallas receiver has had in some time. And with Cooper shining, we saw QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott looking like their old selves. With Dallas' offense struggling so much this season, not a lot of people noticed how well their defense has been playing. On Thanksgiving, they rushed the passer and notched three interceptions, helping them turn things in their favor.
Dak Prescott looked a lot better last week and should thrive more often with a real aerial weapon in Cooper, who had 180 yards and two touchdowns on Thanksgiving. After some lulls this season, Elliott is really cruising along, with 394 yards rushing in his last three games, along with some production aerially. The once-vaunted O-line has been playing better and we are starting to see a Dallas team that can play well on both sides of the ball. With the Redskins in an iffy state after losing Cousins, the Eagles overcoming a bad patch, and a Giants team that got off to a horrid start, this division is now for the Cowboys to win.
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The Dallas "D" did give up some aerial production to Washington backup Colt McCoy on Thursday, but were otherwise pretty solid overall. They have been consistent during this three-game win streak, giving up 20, 19, and 23 points in their last three wins. They are very stout against the run, which they hope helps in this game against the talented Saints' backfield. And they make a lot of plays. Demarcus Lawrence had a sack and a pick on Thanksgiving. Leighton Vander Esch is a tremendous rookie in the middle. This season, we see this side of the ball coming together better. The most any team has scored against Dallas was 28 points. That number could be threatened this week by the tip-top New Orleans offense.
The Saints have really bounced back with a vengeance after dropping their first game of the season and starting slow. With ten straight wins, they are really on-fire, seeing everything come together on both sides of the ball. And the fever-pitch of energy has not dissipated going on three months now. And those looking to time a comedown have been left grasping the air, as New Orleans has covered every point spread since September 16. They have a diverse offense that can do damage in any number of ways. You can't really run the ball against them. All in all, they have a lot of firepower to wield on opponents.
At 39, there is no overhyping what Drew Brees has been able to accomplish this season. With over 76% completions, he has been a marvel this season with 29 TDs and just two picks. Bolstering Brees' excellence is an O-line that is really doing a fine job in '18. It doesn't hurt to have two backs that can do a little bit of everything. Mark Ingram is starting to heat up after returning from suspension. Alvin Kamara is also a huge weapon and the pair of backs can do massive damage aerially, as well. WR Michael Thomas will go over 100 receptions in this game. There are a lot of weapons on this side of the ball.
Granted, the New Orleans defense lags behind the offense in terms of overall effectiveness. That doesn't mean they don't carry their load. A recurring problem on this team is pass-defense and truth be told, it's a team weakness that could rear its head as the Saints make a big postseason push. They make plays, but aren't terribly stout in that area. Up-front, however, is a different story. With Sheldon Rankins and Cameron Jordan up-front, they can get after the passer and plug the run. Alex Anzalone and Damario Davis provide a lot of presence in the middle. It's not a great overall defense, perhaps, but they excel in certain areas, play clutch when they need to, and add enough playmaking to keep things pointed in the right direction. In the last ten games, they've given the offense enough room to win and that's all that matters at the end of the day.
The Saints haven't been quite as potent on the road, though they have dominated in some spots away from home. It's still a little different at the Superdome, where the beatings have been more-severe. This could prove to be a tough one. Away from home and playing a team that hung in there well to get to this point, things could be a bit more uphill this week. It's hard to bet into the Saints right now with that long string of wins and covers, but I see the Cowboys as having more to gain here at home, which I see leading to a cover. I'm taking the Cowboys.
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