New York Giants (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Week 6 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, October 10, 2019 at 8:20PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: Fox/NFL
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NYG +16.5/NE -16.5
Over/Under Total: 44.5
The New York Giants come to Foxborough for a Thursday Night Football matchup with the New England Patriots. This is a tough spot on the short week for a Giants team coming off a 28-10 beating at home to the Vikings last Sunday. But the Giants sometimes seem to play over their heads against the Pats and maybe they'll be overlooked coming into this game. Before they fell on their face Sunday, the Giants had won two straight so who knows? The Patriots, meanwhile, look every part a defending Super Bowl champion, moving to 5-0 on Sunday with another routine win, this time on the road against Washington, 33-7. After two games in a row on the road, will they be enlivened by being at home? Or is the wrong time for a short week, with a weak-seeming opponent maybe lining up for a letdown spot?
This might seem like a tall task for the Giants and in many ways it is. After all, the Giants aren't very good—with a rookie QB, missing their best weapon on offense, and with issues-galore throughout the team. But with no expectations, it could give way to a certain looseness that could actually help them, at least from an ATS standpoint. You have a young player in Daniel Jones, a derided draft pick, going against the greatest QB of all time in Tom Brady. Of course Jones wants to make a mark. This time last season, however, the Giants had Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham and will have to go about this without those guys, with Barkley coming back into the fold later in the season. Despite all this, they won two straight games before coming into Minnesota and were showing some life.
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At the end of the day, you need certain weapons if you want to compete at this level week in and week out. I don't question that Jones will develop into a good quarterback, as he has already shown some mettle and talent since coming in for Eli Manning. With Wayne Gallman and Jon Hilliman, however, the run-game has taken a definite step backwards without Barkley. And having an offensive line that is not good at stopping the run or in repelling the opposing pass-rush, it puts Jones in a difficult position. He is really going to have to go above and beyond to make this work on a consistent level.
Getting WR Golden Tate back from suspension will help, especially as he warms up to the season. Rookie receiver Darius Slayton is showing signs of life and Sterling Shepard is a quality receiver. They have a good tight end in Evan Engram. So when things start clicking, it's not a bad crew of ball-catchers. As of now, though, it's a pretty no-frills group and an offense that falls flat more often than not. On Sunday at home, the aerial attack was pedestrian with Daniel Jones having his second straight dicey game through the air. The run-game was unimpactful, with Wayne Gallman in concussion review, meaning they have to go even deeper into the barrel to find a back upon which their rookie quarterback can rely.
It's hard to see much that resembles a stout and playmaking Giants' defense we saw a few short years ago. Giving up well over 100 yards to Dalvin Cook and 300 yards through the air to Kirk Cousins is endemic of their problem. They don't really thrive in any one area on this side of the ball. Markus Golden can get after the quarterback a little bit and maybe Dexter Lawrence can come around, as he did have a sack on Sunday. But they're not really making their presence felt up-front and backs are ripping off a lot of big runs so far this season. On Sunday, they couldn't stop Dalvin Cook, who had 132 yards running and another 86 aerially, with Adam Thielen going for 130 yards and two TDs. Against a sharp Patriots' offense and on the road, this week stands out as a particularly hard matchup for this bunch.
It's business as usual for the Patriots, sitting pretty at 5-0. In five games, they have outscored opponents, 155-34. That's a pretty dominant five-game stretch. We see the offense operating crisply, along with a defense that looks as good as any that Bill Belichick has had in his long tenure with the Pats. You'd think a defending Super Bowl champion would face a tough schedule. Granted, it gets harder later, but they're really being eased into the season, now getting the Giants at home after games with the wayward Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Bills, and now this. Granted, they can't be blamed for being in a soft conference other than a plucky Buffalo. But you'd think the NFL could have front-loaded a tougher game or two.
On Sunday, Brady was his typical sharp self, going for 348 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw a pick, but against a meandering Redskins home-squad, it hardly mattered. He has a lot of weapons aerially, with Julian Edelman going for 110 yards and a TD, while Josh Gordon and RB James White also chipped in with key catches. They always use backs through the air and on Sunday, Brandon Bolden caught a 29-yard TD pass. It's a very deep cast. Even TE Ryan Izzo showed his chops, catching a TD pass. Sony Michel had a productive day on the ground, gaining 91 yards and scoring on a 14-yard run.
It might be tied to the teams they've been playing, as the Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Bills, and Redskins aren't the best-running offenses at this point, but the Pats' defense sure looks good to the naked eye. On Sunday, Chase Winovich, Michael Bennett, D'onta Hightower, Danny Shelton, and Jamie Collins all got to the quarterback. Shelton and others are great up-front in shutting down the run. The middle is stacked with Collins and Hightower. And the secondary has been stout and making plays. Devin McCourty already has four picks and on Sunday, brother Jason got involved and had a pick. They might get tested more as the season wears on, but this wouldn't appear to be a spot, as they play yet another offense that is a bit on the dysfunctional side.
Again, a letdown-component could be addressed here, with the Patriots coming off two straight road games and then coming home on the short week to face a team that might not elicit a ton of respect. Other than Brady and Belichick, no one on that sideline has a particular axe to grind with the Giants as a franchise. But against teams that aren't really in top-gear, the Pats are just running over in a big way and I see more of that at home on TNF. I'm taking the Patriots.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the New England Patriots minus 16.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on games at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
