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New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Point Spread - Pick

New York Jets (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Week 7 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 22, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
TV: Fox

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper,

Point Spread: NYJ +3/MIA -3
Over/Under Total: 38.5

The New York Jets come to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday to take on the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East battle. The Dolphins were terrific on Sunday, boosting their record to 3-2 with a road win over the Atlanta Falcons, where they overcame a 17-0 deficit to win 20-17. They look to continue that momentum at home against the incoming Jets. On Sunday, the Jets sunk to 3-3 with a 24-17 loss at home against the Patriots. As division rivals, they already faced each other this season, with the Jets beating the Dolphins in East Rutherford, 20-6. Only a last-second garbage TD saved the 'Fins from a shutout. The Jets just pecked away, got a couple big plays, and easily beat a flat Dolphins bunch. Miami looks like a different team heading into week 7 and it's unclear how much that game really matters.

It seemed like getting their first game postponed and not being at home until last week left the Dolphins a little deflated and had something to do with their losses to the Jets and Saints, where they scored 6 combined points in consecutive weeks. They saw their home-opener postponed with hurricane concerns, with two road games, followed by a game in London. They finally had their home opener in week five, beating the Titans, 16-10. But the win over the Falcons in a building against a team they never really play was a big boost and the way they came back could signal an up-period for the Dolphins moving forward.

The offense for Miami has had their problems. After scoring 22 combined points in their last three games, they were held scoreless in the first half against Atlanta. Then, running back Jay Ajayi sprung to life and ended up with 130 yards rushing. Jay Cutler connected with Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry on touchdown throws. A late Cody Parkey field goal locked up the win. It was promising for the 'Fins to see their offense finally get moving with 20 second-half points. They might be without center Mike Pouncey, who left the game with a concussion. But at the end of the day, they've been far from bankable. They will be facing a Jets' defense that had them totally stymied in the first game they played this season.

Even while not getting a lot of support from the offense, the Miami defense has performed capably this season. They were a huge part of the win and deserve major kudos for being able to hold an Atlanta home offense to zero points in the second-half. Reshad Jones made some big plays and had a pick on the day. Up-front, Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake each had sacks. In the middle, they have gotten a big boost from Lawrence Timmons, who has really hit the ground running since his belated debut with the team. With Kiko Alonso very active in this defense, the added menace in the middle has given them a boost. And secondary members like Xavien Howard, Nate Allen, and Jones deserve big credit for keeping Matt Ryan and his aerial weapons in check on Sunday.

The Jets have been a surprise. At 3-3, they gave the Patriots a run for their money and have shown far more-resistance than some suspected at the beginning of the season. In fact, it seemed like they would have had a chance to win the game against the Patriots is not for an overturned TD that would seem to at least qualify as an over-zealous reversal of an on-field ruling. One of the Jets' triumphs came against this very team, when they very nearly shut out the Dolphins. They look for more of the same and have to be respected based on their performance this season both straight-up and ATS. They took a 14-0 lead against the Patriots into the second quarter, but New England tied it up by the end of the half and slowly pulled away for the win.


The Jets' offense has shown some spark this season, though they went a bit dormant in the second half of the Patriots game. Josh McCown had another productive game with 354 yards through the air, though two picks were costly. McCown connected with a lot of guys on Sunday, with Jermaine Kearse, Robby Anderson, and Jeremy Kerley all productive on the day. Matt Forte had some moments on the day, most of it aerially. And TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins caught a TD pass and maybe should have had two. They've been fairly consistent lately as far as point-production, with the Jets scoring 17-23 points in each of their last five games.

The Jets' defense has had some success this season. Just like the consistency they have shown on offense, the defense has allowed 14-24 points in five of six games this season thus far. Among the big plays they got on Sunday was a pick and fumble recovery by CB Buster Skrine, along with very active play from linebackers Demario Davis and Darron Lee. The secondary kept Tom Brady in-check with a below-average game by his standards. Against a version of Jay Ajayi who is heating up, we'll see if the run-defense holds up as well as they did the first time around.

This has the looks of a hard-fought divisional game. I don't think losing to the Patriots will deflate the Jets, who should be looking to atone for that this week. I see Miami getting a lot of life from being at home on the heels of a galvanizing win with an offense that seems to have latched onto some decent momentum. Still, both defenses should continue to thrive this week. I see the Dolphins eking the cover at home.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Miami Dolphins minus 3 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Jets vs. Dolphins game by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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