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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers Point Spread - Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
Week 4 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, September 26, 2019 at 8:20PM EDT
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: Fox

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: PHI +5/GB -5
Over/Under Total: 44.5

The Philadelphia Eagles come to Lambeau on Thursday Night Football for a big NFC showdown with the Green Bay Packers. So far, so good for the Packers, who carry a 3-0 mark into this matchup. Green Bay is coming off a 27-16 win over the Broncos and they have covered the spread every week so far on the young season. They have seen a rising defense take hold and suddenly, they look primed to make a run. With this being their third straight home-game, they are nice and dug-in at home, where they have been since a September 5 win at Soldier Field. They now host an Eagles team that hasn't covered the spread yet this season, following a week one win with two straight losses, including a troubling home-loss on Sunday, 27-24, to the Lions.

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A lot was expected from Philly with a stacked offense and some moves made on the other side of the ball. It really hasn't come off looking great yet. They did well enough in a week one win over the Redskins. But they were flat on the road in a loss to Atlanta and even worse last week against Detroit. The culprits are multiple. The offense, dealing with injuries, hasn't really fired yet. Mistakes have been at the root of their two losses. The offensive line, a team asset, has underperformed. And the defense hasn't been clutch and isn't living up to expectations. The secondary, in particular has looked ragged the past few weeks.

Granted, Philly QB Carson Wentz has been off-key the last two weeks. But a lot of drops have really plagued this team, with Nelson Agholor in particular, dropping a few big ones the past two weeks. Zach Ertz is still a big weapon at tight end and Agholor makes plays, but not having Alshon Jeffery (questionable) and DeSean Jackson has cost this offense a lot of their firepower. Darren Sproles is a useful player, but not a featured back and rookie back Miles Sanders has been underwhelming thus far, as has rookie receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The O-line hasn't been nearly as dominant as one would have expected. A lot was anticipated from this group and so far, the returns have been less than scintillating. Going against a Green Bay defense that has really shined early this season, this week might be a strange time for things to get better for this side of the ball.

Perhaps the Philly defense has been handcuffed a bit this season by the failings on the other side of the ball. They've been pretty good against the run thus far. But teams are getting places through the air. And Ronald Darby, Sidney Jones, Rodney McLeod, and Malcolm Jenkins need to do a better job in the back. Guys like Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham haven't really gotten started yet, as the pass-rush has been minimal through 3 games. Giving up 27 points in each of their home games was not the plan to open the season. And now going against Aaron Rodgers, they're going to need to come up with something.

Green Bay is feeling pretty good about things through three weeks. A nice week one road-win against Chicago gave way to home-wins over the Vikings and Detroit, as Green Bay established its presence in the NFC North. They now turn their attention to what should be a hungry and irritated Eagles team that will be pushing hard to avoid a 1-3 start. The Packers have been doing it with defense, allowing a combined 35 points through three games. The offense hasn't been that great, but still, it's been enough to get to 3-0 and lend some new life to a franchise that had been struggling the last few seasons.

I would expect Aaron Rodgers to get going sooner than later. He has been efficient and hasn't thrown a pick. But look for him to make more connections with Davante Adams, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and Jimmy Graham. The backs have been making noise with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams doing a good job and both also serving as viable ball-catchers. Still, despite all their issues and no one really having put up numbers yet, their point-totals are rising after scoring ten points in week one, with 21 against the Vikes, and then 27 against the Broncos on Sunday.

The Green Bay defense is stout and it makes plays. Those two things can go a long way. In week one, a key pick late by first-year Packers safety Adrian Amos paid off big. Also added was Preston Smith, who has really been getting after QBs with 4.5 sacks. Amos, Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, and Darnell Savage have been playing very well in the secondary and should give Philly some stiff resistance this week. Their 11.7 points-allowed average will surely go up, but a defense that was showing some good signs last season has really turned the corner. This week should offer a glimpse into whether or not they're for real or if they just had a good few weeks.

It can be misleading to make urgency-plays this early in the season. And sometimes, when a team isn't delivering on the hype, there are reasons for that, which cannot be overcome. Nonetheless, I see the Eagles needing this a lot more than the Packers. How much that ends up mattering remains to be seen. But I think an urgent Eagles team looking to avoid a disastrous start to this season will hit Lambeau with a head of steam and do enough to get the cover. I'll take the Eagles.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Philadelphia Eagles plus 5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Eagles vs. Packers game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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