Seattle Seahawks (12-5 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS)
NFC Divisional Playoffs
Date/Time: Sunday, January 12, 2020 at 6:40PM EST
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay Wisconsin
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: SEA +4/GB -4
Over/Under Total: 46
The Seattle Seahawks come into Lambeau Field for an NFC Divisional Playoff showdown with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Seattle looks to win their second playoff game on the road in as many weeks, following a nice 17-9 win over the Eagles on Wild Card weekend. They are now a win away from the NFC title game, but this is where being a good Green Bay team really pays off, getting last week off after a 13-win regular season and now getting a home playoff game at Lambeau where the elements could come into play. Who can get the edge in this playoff battle?
Despite not ending the season well and seeing some injuries compromise parts of their team, the Seahawks showed on Sunday that they represent a solid threat, even in this context. Russell Wilson is one of the best in the business and this is simply a team that knows how to manufacture success in big games like this. While their defense isn't what it once was and it gets a lot harder this week than it was on Sunday with a Carson Wentz-less Eagles, they can still deliver in the right spots. The Green Bay offense isn't above reproach and their defense can be exploited. Granted, they are 13-3, but there is a somewhat vulnerable air to them for being one of the top seeds in the conference.
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The Seahawks managed only 17 points on Sunday against a tough Philly "D" on the road, but Wilson's 325 yards through the air and his 45 rushing yards were key. Without Chris Carson and most of the other pertinent backs they started the season with, the pickings could be slim. Marshawn Lynch has scored in both of his games since returning to Seattle, but 41 yards on 18 carries isn't a ton of support. They can still get it done through the air and on Sunday, DK Metcalf really delivered with a big late play among his 160 yards on the day. Tyler Lockett and David Moore also had some nice production. And this is a part of their game that will need to thrive with their run-game in a bit of a shambles.
Again, the Seattle "D" likely had it easy last week against a decimated Philly offense that had their final straw with Wentz going down with a concussion early in the game. On Sunday, we saw a pass-rush that would really help them this week, as they had seven sacks against the Eagles. Jadeveon Clowney is looking as good as he has all season. Quinton Jefferson had two sacks. And a maligned Seattle secondary was pretty good, albeit against a depleted Eagles' aerial attack. Things get harder this week against Aaron Rodgers and Company.
Green Bay has kept their heads above water, overcoming a lot this season, including injuries and a wide range of play on both sides of the ball. First, the defense took the lead, then it was the offense's turn. At the end, they became a team that has a lot of balance and depth. The Packers finished the season in good form, winning their last five games and Green Bay is better than what exists on paper. In addition, they were solid at the betting windows. On one hand, you see a team that was ranked mid-pack on both sides of the ball. You see an offense with Aaron Rodgers without any real stars around him. The Packers only beat two teams that went to the playoffs this season. They average 23.5 points, while allowing an average of 19.6 points a game—not so dominant for a 13-3 team. But they are 13-3 and that's what counts.
With over 4000 yards passing and a 26-4 TD-to-INT rate, Rodgers was tremendous this season. When you're in a pinch, he's the guy you want, seemingly always able to make something happen when the team most needs it. Key to the success on offense was the performance of Aaron Jones on the ground this season. With 19 touchdowns this season, they need him in a big way this week, both in the run-game, but also aerially. That also goes for lead receiver Devante Adams and his deep supporting cast, guys like Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Jimmy Graham, and Geronimo Allison. In springing the run all season and keeping Rodgers well-protected in spots, the offensive line has been solid. It's also good to see guys like Rodgers, Jones, and Adams in such good form heading into the games that really matter.
While having cooled off from how well they started the season, the Green Bay defense still looked strong to finish the season, allowing a total of 71 points in their last five games. Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith combined for 25.5 sacks on the season. Five players had multiple interceptions on the season for this unit. Blake Martinez is active in the middle, with Kenny Clark a difference-maker up front. In the back, they have game-changers like Adrian Amos, Jaire Alexander, and Kevin King with his five picks on the season.
The first inclination is that this is a game where Seattle could hang in there and even potentially win. But then as we unravel the equation, one can also make the case that this is where an overachieving, flawed, and compromised Seattle team will hit a wall. I envision a tight game and if pressed from a straight-up perspective, I'd side with a slightly more-bankable Green Bay team, but I see Seattle showing enough guts, hanging in there, and getting the cover.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Seattle Seahawks plus 4 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Seahawks vs. Packers game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
