Utah State Aggies (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS)
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Date/Time: Thursday, December 26, 2013 at 9:30PM EST
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: USU +1.5/NIU -1.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
The Utah State Aggies take on the 12-1 Northern Illinois Huskies in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego on December 26. The 8-5 Aggies can’t be too upset, making their 3rd straight bowl game after a 15-year absence from the postseason. Northern Illinois could have gone unbeaten and enjoyed a far more-glorious bowl placement, but they dropped the MAC title game to Bowling Green. Even so, the Huskies have won 24 of their last 26 games and enter this game as small 1.5-point favorites.
It didn’t look too good for Utah State this season after they slipped to 3-4, following their second straight road loss. But they peeled off 5 straight wins, all against conference opposition to earn a spot in the Mountain West Conference title game. They dropped a 24-17 game to Fresno State, but come into this game with some decent momentum built up from a nice second-half to the season. It’s impressive how well they have held up after losing the star of their team, QB Chuckie Keeton, who they haven’t had since October 4. Freshman Darell Garretson did well in relief, quite admirably actually, but he suffered a head injury against Fresno State. He is expected to play in the Poinsettia Bowl. They have shown that even without Keeton, Utah State is still a handful.
Northern Illinois has had their way the past few years, largely due to the incredible seasons compiled by QB Jordan Lynch. The Heisman finalist once again went nuts this year--with 2676 yards in the air and another 1881 on the ground--good for a stunning second in the nation in rushing. He has thrown for 23 touchdowns and run for 22 more. Between Lynch and 1000-yard runner Cameron Stingily, they have one of the top rushing attacks in the country. It’s really just a matter of making it translate against non-MAC opponents. Going back to last year’s Orange Bowl against Florida State, they’re not as good outside the MAC. This year, they beat a down Purdue team and barely scraped by Iowa in the season-opener. Utah State certainly doesn’t represent the upper-echelon of college football, but they’re a step up from the fodder that built up Northern Illinois’ rep the past two seasons. Northern Illinois has it a lot easier in this year’s bowl game, but teams that are dominant in low-end conferences are always a dicey proposition when they step outside of their comfort zones.
Northern Illinois had probably spent a lot of time pondering another BCS bowl game as they got very late into the season without a loss. To go from that to the cumbersomely-named San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl is a big letdown. Not that Northern Illinois as a program is used to only going to prestigious bowls. But something can happen to a team when the stakes are significantly lowered suddenly. Rather than getting another chance to uplift their program and their conference against a top opponent, they land in this spot with a loud thud. Can they shake off the disappointment and get ready for a good team in Utah State whose only loss since October 12 is to an explosive Fresno State team?
Utah State’s run “D” is 10th in the nation. That’s Northern Illinois’ bread-and-butter, as they are the 5th best rushing team statistically in the nation. Bowling Green showed what playing a good defense can do to the Northern Illinois offense--render it a shadow of itself. If you look at the teams that Northern Illinois put up big points against, it’s almost exclusively a collection of MAC rift-raft and low-end non-conference fodder. Utah State has their issues, but they are better than that.
Utah State has the 7th scoring defense in the nation. If Northern Illinois has many missteps, the Aggies can take full advantage. Against Bowling Green, in a game they really needed to win, Lynch threw a couple picks and his supporting cast on offense fluttered. In addition, a defense that was sort of holding it together just burst apart at the seams. If Bowling Green can put up 47 on this “D,” Utah State can probably do even better if that same Northern Illinois team shows up here. And after giving up only 31 combined points in their last 3 games, Utah State looks to be coming into this game with their defense peaking at the right time. The Aggies keeping Derek Carr and an irritated Fresno State team to 24 points even in defeat doesn’t bode well for Northern Illinois.
Looking at the recorda of both teams is misleading. Utah State has 8 wins compared to the Huskies’ 12, but that hardly tells the whole story. Look for Utah State’s defense to step up and do a decent job in containing Northern Illinois’ major weapon in Jordan Lynch, forcing someone else to beat them. I’m leaning toward Utah State in this one.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Poinsettia Bowl Point Spread: I’m taking the Utah State Aggies plus 1.5 points.
