NFL Betting Advice: Bets We Should Utilize More
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
It can be easy for us to fall into patterns. We do what we feel more comfortable doing. That happens in all aspects of our lives. We know there are probably better restaurants than the crappy coffee shop we regularly frequent, but we like it there because we feel comfortable. That’s OK, but when there is money on the line, we should try to come out of our comfort-zones once in a while.
Maybe making straight bets is working well. By all means, continue plugging away. Sometimes, however, we find ourselves struggling with the framework of making straight bets and sometimes spicing it up with a parlay or teaser bet. It might be time to try on a different outfit and see if it doesn’t help us look better.
Many of us tend to eschew NFL totals. We see over-under betting as a more speculative wager. We may feel that picking which team will win or cover the spread is something that is easier to gauge. There might be something to that. It’s just more normal to see people confident in their ability to predict what will happen, as opposed to how things might happen.
Nevertheless, the value in totals cannot be understated. When we see that most of the more successful NFL bettors have totals as a focal point of their wagering profile, it should only nudge us ever so slightly in this direction. While totals may seem like a less predictable form of betting, there is actually enhanced value in this area.
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NFL games, with the limited number of contests and complete familiarity with the teams involved, have very tough point-spreads. It can be difficult to defeat the bookie along these lines. When dabbling with totals, there is more potential to spot a soft number. If you find yourself struggling with picking sides, it might not be a bad idea to start developing your chops for picking totals.
Second half wagering is a neglected part of NFL betting. Some betting men are hesitant to do it. They like the idea of making a stand and sticking with it, however it plays out. But there are some advantages to halftime betting that cannot be disputed. When betting on a game before it starts, you will often be stunned at how the game goes completely contrary to how you pegged it. When betting at halftime, you have the luxury of seeing how things are going before jumping into the action.
When you watch the first half of a game, you can sense some different things that give you a leg up in the second half--advantages you simply will not find as often when just making straight bets before the game even begins. Unlike in college football, you won’t find many softball bets to knock out of the park. But you can still locate some advantageous spots.
An astute observer can sense when a game will be a tale of two halves. Or when a team relied on some fluky plays to get a lead and won’t be able to depend on that in the second half. Or when a dormant offense is due to explode. Or when a hot offense is due to go cold. Unlike a pre-game wager, a halftime bet can give you the advantage of being able to sense the momentum, tone, and general vibe of a game before making your wager.
We can get stuck on making standard -110 bets across the board. While we don’t endorse going overboard in making wagers that offer grandiose payouts, that doesn’t mean it’s wrong to make a few bets here and there where we stand to make more than we risk. That means betting mild underdogs on the money-line. When able to get +140 or +160 on a small dog, you can be wrong more often than you’re right and still come out ahead.
Be careful betting dogs on the money line, though. It is painful enough to lose a bet, but when you drop one that you would have otherwise won by betting against the spread, it carries a little extra sting.
