Who Will Win the NFL MVP for the 2018 Season
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting on who will win the MVP in the NFL is a great bet in many respects. Perhaps you sense a player is due to pounce and become a star. Maybe you see a veteran finding a spurt with some new pieces in place. Or a new system better suits a player and he's going to have a big season. There is any number of different ways of looking at it. It's fun to make a bet and be able to follow it all season long, as you push for your player to put up the big numbers.
Let's dispense with the suspense and come right out and say this is a highly quarterback-centric award. It takes quite a special performance from a non-quarterback to win this award. In recent seasons, it's been all about quarterbacks. Some running backs who had gigantic seasons have been able to earn the award, with LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander won in the mid-2000's after putting up stats that were too hard to ignore. In the past 11 seasons, the only non-QB to win it was Adrian Peterson following a huge season. So we're looking for quarterbacks here, unless you wanna predict a huge season for another player. Rightfully, the top 12 choices on the board are quarterbacks.
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Let's take a look at the odds to win the MVP award in the NFL this season, followed by some of our best selections.
Odds for NFL MVP
Aaron Rodgers +500Our Top Favorite Picks
Aaron Rodgers (+500): Not a great price perhaps, but one can see the stage being set. After being out for much of last season, the Packers suffered. If he comes back, has a good season as he always does, and the Packers manage to thrive, it's the obvious choice to make. The return isn't great, but the storyline that goes behind it is wholly believable.
Tom Brady (+850): Getting Brady at +850 is not a bad price, considering some recent quotes in previous seasons. It seems a lot of people are dismissive of the Pats and Brady this season. That seems a good time for Brady and Company to get back to the business of beating up on the opposition, an eventuality that will again land Brady in the thick of this discussion.
Our Top Mid-Range Picks
Drew Brees (+1600): If the Saints were to catch fire, a viable possibility, Brees could be a compelling candidate. He'll be 40 in January and he'll have some sentimentality that goes with that. In addition, he has a lot around him, reminiscent in some respects to the team that won it all nearly a decade ago.
Jimmy Garoppolo (+1600): On one hand, when you bet on a guy who has never played a full season on a team that hasn't been in the mix in several years, you'd like better than 16-1 odds. But if you're an eternal optimist and think the Niners and Garoppolo can pick right up where they left off last season, those odds might not be looking so bad come season's end.
Philip Rivers (+2800): A lot of the pieces are in place for Rivers to put up a lot of production. The run-game is there and he is now supported by a defense that can keep them in games. The aerial cast is well-stocked with familiar faces and growing forces in this offense. And with Rivers, you can always count on him being healthy. If the Chargers go far this season, who knows?
Ben Roethlisberger (+3000): Something hasn't quite clicked the last few seasons for the Steelers and Roethlisberger is still putting up big numbers. Durability is an issue, as it's been a while since he played a full season. But if things fall into place some, he very well could have a giant statistical season.
Our Top Longshot Picks to Win MVP
Ezekiel Elliott (+3200): We hate to stray from the QB position, but we also like to cover our butts just in case. And if it were not to be a quarterback, Elliott would seem to be a top alternative candidate. At these odds, that's not half-bad. In his only full season, he created separation from his peers, running away with the rushing title. The main focus in the Dallas offense, watch out for Elliott this season.
Jared Goff (+4000): At first glance, he might not strike one as MVP material. There is a certain gawkiness or some indefinable quality that might hold him back from joining the ranks of the true elite. But he improved drastically last season and another step forward along with the robust cast he possesses could conceivably lead to the kind of results and numbers that can't be ignored.
Alvin Kamara (+6600) When a rookie runs for 728 yards and catches passes for another 826 yards, it would seem to warrant some consideration, but Kamara is 66-1. With Ingram suspended, he could open the season with a bang and start putting together the type of stat-line that is too difficult to ignore. Kamara certainly has some value at 66-1. Make this bet for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!
