How to Sway the Odds in Your Favor
By Loot, Professional Sports Bettor, Lootmeister.com
There are many things we can do in order to improve our bottom-line when it comes to sports betting. Among those different things stands one trait that plagues many bettors. Improving this one thing would drastically cut into sportsbook profits and increase your chances of beating the bookies. Unfortunately, not many can adhere to it. We’re talking about the powers of selectivity.
Let’s fully understand the dynamic here. The bookies are forced to post a line or point spread for every game. As bettors, however, we can pick and choose. Ideally, that should be a great asset for bettors. After all, we get to pick the battles we want to fight. If a war general, for example, was somehow able to only go to battle when the conditions were exactly right, he would surely be considered a winning general. So why is it so hard with bettors?
By in large, the general betting public has major deficiencies in the area of selectivity. There are many reasons for that, but one of them boils down to many bettor’s constant need for action. This is one of the major issues you will need to address if you have the desire to become serious about sports betting. Not that there is anything wrong with having some fun with it. But if you are serious about making money at this and becoming something resembling a professional, selectivity is among the first things you should address.
Again, the bookie has to put odds out on every game. That alone should theoretically give bettors some kind of advantage. When you sit down at a blackjack table, for example, you’re going to be playing every hand. When you play a slot machine, you’re in for every spin. Sports betting is one of the only forms of gambling where your analysis and decisions are actually a key determinant to your success. On top of that, you get to pick when the conditions are most favorable to you.
However, this is only a weapon if used correctly. And unfortunately, most bettors do not. They make too may bets, many of them on games where there is no real edge. This could be because bettors are simply too action-oriented. But there are some other things at play, as well, namely the fact that most bettors are simply too opinionated and not discerning enough.
A lot of bettors look at a game and casually develop an opinion. Then they bet it. They don’t necessarily look into the game properly. They don’t really handicap it. They don’t pay much mind to the odds and the value they represent. This is where bettors allow their lack of selectivity to erode their bottom-line.
A professional bettor does things a little differently. First of all, they don’t casually throw out opinions all willy-nilly. They handicap a game first, then develop an opinion. If the wager offers good value, they just might make a bet. But everything must first be in-line. Their handicapping must stand up to the test. And then the odds need to represent good value. If a handicapper thinks a team will win, they won’t bet it if that team is a bigger favorite than it should be. Same with underdogs.
In other words, a lot of things need to be in-line in order for a pro to make the bet. Call it high standards, call it stringent criteria, but whatever it is, it contributes to the trait of selectivity. While being selective is important, it’s the opposite that is poison to the bottom line of bettors.
When a bettor plays too many games, he’s basically just gambling. He might as well be at a blackjack or caribbean stud table. What makes sports betting unique to other forms of gambling is that your analysis and decision-making is key. Most forms of gambling have decisions that you make, but they’re more rote--second-nature decisions you can make while on auto-pilot.
Sports betting gives you the power of being able to isolate your best picks. That’s only part of it. Unless you actually incorporate that mindset into your approach to sports betting, it does no good. Instead of just charging down the middle of the battlefield screaming bloody murder with guns blazing, more of a sniper approach is called for. When you have a clear shot you’re pretty sure you can make, you fire. You don’t fire away hoping a bullet hits something. If able to adopt this outlook into your betting, you’ll simply do a lot better.
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