Avoiding Sports Betting and Handicapping Scams (Scamdicappers)
By Loot, Professional Sports Bettor, Lootmeister.com
Whenever there is a lot of money involved, there will be an element of scamming. Sports betting is no different. Every year, billions of dollars are wagered and unfortunately, some people have resorted to underhanded tactics in order to get their hands on some of that loot. Most of it involves people who claim they can help you win.
People will try to sell you their picks and this is where the treachery can get pretty deep. It helps to understand the landscape. There are indeed some people who have good picks and riding their coat-tails can maybe get you some money. But most can’t. Here are some telltale things to look out for.
Take note at what they claim. Anyone who claims winning 70% of their picks against-the-spread over the long-term is an utter liar and cannot be trusted. Even if there were someone who managed to win at this clip, they’d be too busy making money to spend time selling picks. Even winning 60% of your picks is asking too much over the long-haul. There have been guys able to maintain that over a season, but by longterm, we’re talking a decade or more. If someone has been able to pick games against-the-spread at 60% for a decade, they would among the best handicappers in the world.
So that should tell you something about the guys you hear claiming fraudulently-exorbitant levels of success. You may hear a guy on the radio claiming 80%. He’s lying. A person can say anything. Who’s gonna check? What would they check? Don’t believe everything you hear. Guys in this business largely go unchecked and naturally, they’re going to make themselves look better than they are--to make it appear like they have something going for them that you don’t.
Examine the tone. If you are being talked to and it sounds like a used car salesman talking, that’s not a good sign. Those who really make good picks and are confident in their abilities don’t feel the need to “jive talk” you to death. When dealing with someone in the sports betting world, you want to avoid guys who sound like they’re trying to sell you bum speakers out of their truck.
Not that guys who use some elements of salesmanship won’t be able to make money, but if you feel like you’re being hustled, don’t ignore that instinct. That might be what’s happening. Sports betting is hard. Making money at this is no breeze. So if someone makes it sound like a walk in the park, that’s a bad sign.
Try to determine what makes them an authority in the first place. What you’d like to see is a person who has access to exclusive information that could tip the result of a game one way or the other. Otherwise, they’re just doing what you could be doing--handicapping the game using all the information available, which is accessible to anyone.There are some words you simply don’t want to hear. This is a short-list of some of them:
Lock: A pick that cannot go wrong. No such bet exists. The galling part of it is they don’t use the term “lock” for a 50/1 favorite, but on a pick against-the-spread. It’s OK to feel good about a pick against-the-spread, but to say it’s a lock is preposterous.
Guarantee: If anyone tells you they guarantee a win, disregard them immediately. First of all, who is he to guarantee anything? If Aaron Rodgers tells you in line at the store that he guarantees the Packers will win on Sunday, that’s one thing. How can some guy talking to you on the phone guarantee you something like that? Is he playing in the game? Guys who use hyperbole are trying to cover up something else. Especially against-the-spread, there are no guarantees. And if someone got it right, big deal. He basically called a coin-flip right one time.
Never: Avoid people saying they “never” do something negative as it relates to sports betting. They may say they never lose 3 in a row, or they never finish the season down, or they never lose money for their clients. There are no “nevers” in sports betting. We all take our knocks.
Star: Anyone who refers to their picks in terms of giving it a certain number of “stars” is someone you might want to avoid. You may hear “Call us for our 10-star pick.” What does that mean? Who’s giving the pick stars, the guy making the pick? That’s like a restaurant rating itself.
There are guys who can make money at this and have a proven track record. But if a guy was really at 70%, he would be too busy making money to want to sell you his picks and move the number against him. No one is fail-safe in this business. Everyone goes through tough stretches. The best simply hope that over time, their superior picks will have them ahead. So take it with a grain of salt when anyone suggests something different. Without fail, the guy saying he is “hammering the bookie” is just looking to hammer you.
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