Bermane Stiverne vs. Chris Arreola II Fight Preview and Prediction
When: Saturday, May 10, 2014
Where: Galen Center at USC, Los Angeles, California
TV:ESPN
Weight Class: Heavyweights: 12 Rounds
Titles: WBC Heavyweight Championship
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Bermane Stiverne, 23-1-1 (20 KOs), Las Vegas, Nevada via Haiti
Vs.
Chris Arreola. 36-3 (31 KOs), Riverside, California
Fighter Odds: Bermane Stiverne (+140), Chris Arreola (-170).
On May 10 on the campus of USC, Bermane Stiverne and Chris Arreola duke it out for the vacant WBC Heavyweight Championship--a title vacated by the now-retired Vitali Klitschko. Just last year, Stiverne defeated Arreola by fairly-convincing decision, busting Arreola’s nose in the process. Many think Arreola will be better this time around. At least that’s what the odds suggest.
Stiverne is an unusual fighter. He’s just becoming known now in his mid-thirties. It looked like he was just another Don King hype-job, a fighter who gets a high ranking before getting exposed. But against Arreola, he showed how good he is. He has supremely heavy hands and is a good thinker in the ring. He knows where to put the punches. And when he does commit, he is fairly explosive--both as a puncher and as an athlete.
A few of the bad things about Stiverne are his stamina and lack of killer instinct. He can really crack, but he isn’t very active. Against Arreola, he did just enough to dissuade him, without really going for it. He seemed to always be on the verge of being gassed and as a result, fought in a very contained style. It helped that Arreola was flummoxed from the nose injury, as it allowed Stiverne to manage a rather leisurely pace.
Arreola knows what he’s getting into now. Maybe he overlooked Stiverne, who hadn’t really beaten anyone of note. Having fought some of the biggest names in the business, maybe Arreola felt unthreatened by the heavy underdog Stiverne. He is now fighting in a gritty part of LA and should enjoy a hearty hometown edge. I look for him to have at least a slightly heightened sense of urgency entering this bout.
But that’s precisely the bad thing about Arreola. There’s always a reason why he didn’t perform up to par. And at some point, he is what he is--an exciting and heavy-hitting contender who is not very consistent and usually shows up in far less than pristine condition. On one hand, the fact that he’s a regular Joe is what makes him so endearing, but he never seemed to embrace the work ethic and commitment that goes into being a world-class athlete. After all these years, you still don’t know what you’re getting with Chris Arreola. When he’s in shape, he’s one of the best in the business--an aggressive and immense puncher who simply knows how to fight and has the stamina to make it count. Other times, the added weight robs him of his skills and energy. With Arreola, it’s a real crap-shoot.
The clock is ticking on Arreola. But just when you would think he might show up in good shape, he doesn’t. Then in nothing fights, he’ll show up slim. Go figure. At this point, we just have to assume we’ll see a flawed Arreola. How flawed is the real question. But you know what? Even a chubby Arreola is a tough out.
Arreola is really being given a golden opportunity here. Sure, the WBC Heavyweight Title doesn’t mean as much when we all know that Wladimir Klitschko is the real champion. But it’s still a nice accomplishment and Arreola would love to become a world champion, even if it’s in name only. And considering Stiverne beat him once already, he’s fortunate to be getting another shot, even though a subsequent one-round blast-out over prospect Seth Mitchell helped him get a high ranking to warrant this fight. In other words, don’t think this opportunity and good fortune will be lost on Arreola.
A few things make this difficult for Arreola. He’s fighting a guy who now carries the confidence of someone who knows he can win at this level. And if Stiverne was able to hone in on Arreola’s ample schnoz the first time, what’s to stop it from happening again? But to do so, Stiverne will have to do so in hostile territory against what should be a motivated Arreola.
Arreola has given a lot of reasons to be skeptical over the years with the uneven performances and the fluctuating weight issues. In addition, he’s not a kid anymore. At 33, he’s two years Stiverne’s junior, but he’s been boxing for a long time. Surely even he knows he needs to win this fight not only to gain a world title, but to remain a viable heavyweight. Two losses to Stiverne would require Arreola to go back to fighting in small casino ballrooms to rebuild and he’s too far along in the game for that.
At the end of the day, it’s not about who you like or what about-faces could ensue. We have to deal with facts. And getting a decent underdog price on Stiverne seems to be the good-value pick here. It may be harder for him to win a decision in this setting and Arreola could make this a close fight where it’s a toss-up type that he is likely to win. I just can’t quite get away from the fact that their first fight wasn’t really all that close. I have to take the price.
Loot’s Pick to Win the Fight: I’m taking Bermane Stiverne at +140.
