Boxing Betting: Making Big Wagers on Big Fights
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
When we bet on boxing, we need to take steps to make sure we aren’t just fans who put our money where our mouth is. In other words, a suave betting man should look at fights differently than how a fan does. A fan wants to see the biggest fights, involving the best fighters in huge events. The betting man is driven by different motives.
Those who wager on boxing should be interested in securing top value for their betting dollar. That might mean betting on a big PPV fight, but it also means betting on a low-profile fight from Lithuania when the situation calls for it. Where a lot of betting men fall into trouble is when their money follows their sensibilities as fans. In other words, they bet more on the fights they are more interested in watching from a fan standpoint. We need to separate those two things.
Another mistake bettors often make is over-paying on a fighter's odds. Prices on fighters are almost always cheaper at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
The bookie is the one who survives every year. A big reason for that is the tendency of the betting public to overload bets in huge PPV fights. That just so happens to be when the bookie is at its toughest. The fighters are very established by the time they are taking part in PPV extravaganzas. They are in fights that are drawing the utmost concentration of the oddsmakers. You’re not going to catch anyone sleeping when it’s a huge fight.
It doesn’t make sense that bettors would slug it out with the book when they’re at their best. In huge fights, the lines are tight. It is said in all forms of sports betting that the bigger the event, the less value you are bound to see. So you better believe that the books like this dynamic--how people try to beat them when the lines are the toughest.
A boxing bettor who almost exclusively wagers on big fights is leaving all kinds of value on the table. They are engaging the bookie along his lines, rather than suavely seeking value where it exists more--in fights that are not giant attractions of international interest. If you find yourself doing most of your boxing wagering on PPV super-fights, you need to become more in-tune with the concept of wagering value. Not that betting on big fights is always wrong. Far from it. But if that’s all you do, you can’t possibly be getting good value.
When fights are a bit off-the-radar, you are dealing more with the unknown. This is where your insight and analysis can actually come into play. When the participants are super-famous fighters who have been at the top for awhile, there are no more secrets. The cat is out of the bag.
A guy who bets only on big fights is like going to a store where everything is more expensive than the place down the street. Why would you do that? If a restaurant has a happy hour, would you purposely show up late to miss it? If gold drops $25 an ounce, is that when you look to sell? These all seem like no-brainers, right? Then why do some bettors bet the most when their edge is actually the smallest?
Each fight represents an opportunity for us as bettors. Fights should be perceived that way--as a collection of individual chances for us to beat the bookie. It could be a fight that has minimal interest even domestically or a fight that will be the opening story on Sportscenter that night. They are all the same--just a bunch of different fights we can either bet or not. Some fights are bigger to the fighters, their supporters, or just fans in general. But to us--it should just be another fight. If there is value, we pounce on it. If not, we leave it alone.
That’s a healthy way to look at it. Just because a fight has tremendously-high stakes, that doesn’t apply to us, nor should it spur us to open our wallets. Let the fighters and fans worry about that. A betting man needs to distance himself from the elements that govern the minds of those who do not bet. For a fighter, the difference between winning a huge fight and a nothing fight is vast. For us, a winning bet is a winning bet, regardless of its importance. It’s not as if we get extra credit for notching a winning wager in super-fight. For us, a win is a win.
Did you know... that Loot also offers free UFC picks with analysis?
