Boxing Betting: Why Being a Super-Fan Means Little in Wagering
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
It is a good idea to recognize the big gulf between being a boxing fan and what's required to become a successful boxing bettor. A lot of people think being good at wagering is just an extension of being a super-fan. As if those who thrive at boxing wagering are just the most hard-core of all fans.
Part of that is true. The best bettors certainly know more about the sport than the average fan. In addition, almost all bettors were first fans. A lot of the information that a fan picks up can be used when wagering, so this is not an indictment on being a fan. It is merely a reminder that the skills needed to become good at boxing wagering aren't the same traits you would value in someone who is a boxing authority.
If you are an authority on the sport itself, that is great. You are on your way. But those skills must be refined and added to in order to make you a threat against the bookies. One is the area of gambling. After all, that is what boxing betting is--it's gambling. To become a successful bettor of boxing matches requires an in-depth understanding of gambling. There is a whole world of theories and mathematics that govern this world. Without this knowledge, your awareness of the sport is likely to just get you into trouble.
It's like the difference between a guy that can hit hard and a good boxer. It's good that you hit hard and won a few contests at bars that have those punching bags that register how strong a punch is. To become good at boxing requires a ton more ability and knowledge. The guy who just hits hard won't survive without the other skill-sets.
Knowing a ton about the sport is only the beginning. It must be applied through the lens of gambling for it to be worth anything. You have to know the math, the theories, how odds work, why odds change, how to spot soft lines, how to avoid bad gambling, how to make high-value picks, and how all the different bets work. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
In addition to gambling savvy, we must always be aware of the things that are specific to boxing wagering. Not all sports-betting is remotely the same, as each sport requires a completely different set of skills and perspectives. What makes a good football bettor might not make a good basketball bettor. Even a good MMA bettor might be stymied by boxing--a sport all onto its own that is unlike any other form of betting. So don't think your extreme boxing chops alone give you a leg up in boxing wagering. You have to master how to apply it to gambling.
While all of us who wager on boxing are fans, we become more fans of the sport and less of the individual boxers the more we get into wagering. Part of it is getting older. We're not like kids anymore with posters of our boxing heroes splattered all over our walls. Sure, there are fighters we like more than others, but we are more into seeing good fights than a particular fighter.
The term fan itself is troubling, coming from the word "fanatic." When you think of a level-headed betting man, "fanatic" is not a word you would associate with him. Loving or hating a fighter only contaminates the analysis of a betting man. It makes us rely on things that aren't going to help us win bets. It can be difficult. Some fighters just can't help but to bring these emotions out of us. If we can't rise above it, it's better to leave those fighters alone and not bet on their fights.
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Fans rely on their observations and to a ridiculous degree. They see a fighter fight poorly and in their mind, that he sucks. Or if they see a guy have a really great night, they get carried away in heaping accolades on that fighter. The savvy betting man knows that there is a lot more to the picture that probably escaped his eye. When seeing a fighter perform either well or badly, he won't assume that's always the way it's going to be.
A sound betting man doesn't over-mythologize his observations. He knows a fighter is rarely as good as he looks at his best or as bad as he looks at his worst. He also knows how a fighter looks on a given night is open to any number of factors that may or not be in place the next time he fights.
When making the transition from fan to betting man, there are some things you should bring to the table--namely your knowledge, insight, and analysis of certain fighters. But the list of things you should shed far exceeds that, as does the new skills you will need to learn to make it work.
