Boxing Betting: Overlooked Parts of Boxing Betting
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
When we bet on boxing, we need to be carful to not fall into patterns of reviewing the same information over and over again for all fights. We look at a fighter's record, signs that he can compete at this level, and other items on his record that suggest whether he can win the upcoming fight. There are other things we need to consider, little tidbits that might not be evident when looking at a fighter's record.
At a certain level in this sport, we need to see that a fighter is able to produce the necessary stamina and mental focus over the course of a long fight. This can be difficult when dealing with a fighter who, for example, ends a lot of fights quickly. Sure, everyone loves a knockout artist, but as bettors, we are governed by a different set of sensibilities than fans. We're not driven by a fighter's entertainment value, but rather his ability to win big fights.
A fighter who relies on power will usually reach a point in his career where he comes to a level where his opponents simply aren't falling down anymore. There are knockout punchers who are able to go a long way based simply on their power. They might even get as far as winning a world title. But that isn't really the top level in today's age of highly-cheapened titles. So don't assume a power-puncher is going to knock everyone out even if he manages to bag a belt. That doesn't always mean a whole lot.
Look for a power puncher who has additional dimensions in his make-up as a fighter. A lot of times, a power guy will reach the point of fighting a durable and truly capable veteran professional--a guy who knows how to roll with the punches and survive rough moments, before letting his skills take over. Knockouts are nice, but in big fights, the ability to fight effectively deep into a long fight might be an even more important attribute.
In this sport, there is the mental element of insistence that can win fights. In a lot of fights, the bout is up for grabs between two similarly-talented fighters. A fighter who is blessed with the gift of insistence is much more likely to win. It's one of those things you can't really teach. A fighter either has it or he doesn't. All fighters train, working on various aspects of their game. But when actually in a fight, you like to see a guy who knows what it's like to fight hard. It's something that lies within him--as a fighter and as a person. Call it ambition. Call it drive. Whatever it is--it wins fights.
Fighters who simply have a bunch of talent will win when they're supposed to for the most part. Their skills are simply too much for their opponents to overcome. Then these fighters get to a point in their careers where they are fighting a higher caliber of fighter. Then you see the importance of having an unyielding fighting spirit. When fighters are in the same class, the more insistent one will usually win. It doesn't show up in the record books, so keep your eyes out for fighters who give you the best chance to win wagers by having a true-blue fighting spirit.
We never want to make generalizations based on where a fighter is from. There are guys sitting in mansions in Beverly Hills who could beat the heck out of some ruffians from the ghettos of Warsaw. So, just because you're from somewhere "tough" doesn't always mean you're going to be a handful in the ring. Be that as it may, a lot of money has been lost at the betting windows from not taking a fighter's background into adequate account.
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While he didn't win the fight, Siberian Ruslan Provodnikov gave gigantic favorite Timothy Bradley absolute hell for 12 rounds, nearly pulling off the unthinkable upset in 2013. Looking at the fight, we analyzed a lot of different things. One thing a lot of us obviously neglected to analyze was how hard Provodnikov's upbringing was. So there was nothing the light-hitting Bradley was likely to inflict that would compare to the hardships that were a part of Provodnikov's everyday life.
When we see a fight like that with such a huge gulf in talent and track record, we should look for clues that the fight will be closer than what many would think. Those who wrote off Provodnikov's case didn't take his background into account. Sometimes, coming up hard is a more valuable asset than, say, having a good jab.
