College Basketball Betting: Getting Ready For The College Basketball Season
By Loot, NCAA Basketball Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting on a sport like college basketball requires bettors to do a lot of work. Players are coming and going. Coaches have shorter shelf-lives than ever before. Players can change drastically from the ages of 18-22. In addition, the sheer number of teams makes it a double-tough sport to follow in any kind of hardcore manner. You gotta put in the hours--there's no way around it.
When approaching the beginning of the season, we need to be ready to go. Using the first month or two to develop an understanding can be a costly endeavor. Sure we might get a little better as the season ages, just like some players and teams. But just like the players, we should be ready to rock and roll when the regular season begins.
Coaching is a big deal in any sport, but in college hoops, it really takes on a new dimension. The coaches are at least slightly more pivotal in college hoops. The players are far younger. They are more moldable. They are experiencing a lot of things for the first time. Who is at the top is important as these athletes are getting their first taste of what it's like to participate in big-time athletics.
When dealing with teams you don't know, this can be difficult. You didn't know who their coach was last year, so who really cares who he is this year? If you don't know, you don't know. Don't force an analysis. But when dealing with the teams that you do focus on, pay very close attention to the changes and what they represent.
Try to determine how the coaching change might resonate. You could look at it from a somewhat simplistic point-of-view, as in whether the team hired a new coach is who is either "better" or "worse." That can be derived by looking at their track-records. But beyond that, try to determine if the coach's style and philosophy will be better-suited for the team. Don't focus on just the big stuff, either. On some teams, a great assistant can make a world of difference. Look at the entire staff.
A big part of college hoops is the constant recycling of players. You can never mentally lock onto a particular lineup, as it is always changing. Examine both the exiting players and the new guys. Obviously, you would like to see a good team with a lot of returning starters. On a bad team, it's less of a concern. A bad team returning starters is likely to be bad the following year, though some teams can up their form a little bit.
It's not easy nowadays. On a good team, a player who is really successful is always a threat to make an early jump to the pros. Either way, we need to look at the incoming players with an eye of scrutiny. We know who the best high school players in the country are and getting one or two of those players can really boost a team. If an exiting player is being replaced by a guy who was already on the team, make sure that guy had some significant minutes, making it easier for him to blend in well.
In days past, incoming players, regardless of how good they were, usually had to serve an apprenticeship before receiving significant playing time. It would be unusual to see a starting freshman. Well, times have certainly changed. Even old-school coaches who would never start a freshman in the past have now come around. It makes analyzing the incoming class of players a very necessary exercise.
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Since no team exists in a vacuum, we cannot properly evaluate a team without taking inventory of their opponents. We will do this when we handicap specific games. Beyond that, however, you should at least get a handle on the strength of the conference schedule. Knowing where a team stands conference-wise can help give you a good early start, but there will often be surprises, so keep an open mind.
Spend the off-months following the sport and accounting for any changes. With a month or so before the season tip-off, intensify your approach. That way, you will be able to hit the ground running when the season begins. Just dropping in at the onset of the season without doing the proper research can make the early-going very rough. We gotta do the work.
