Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS)
College Football Week 7
Date/Time: Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 7PM EST
Where: Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, Kentucky
TV: ESPN2
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: ALA -28/KEN +28
Over/Under Total: 52
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On Saturday, the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide come into Lexington to face the Kentucky Wildcats. The Tide are coming off a 45-3 gimme against Georgia State and looks to have another easy one this week with the 1-4 Wildcats. However, Kentucky was tough at South Carolina on Saturday, losing only 35-28, despite being more than three-touchdown underdogs.
Kentucky is pretty bad, but it’s important to quantify exactly how bad they are. And it’s not really that bad. Losing to Western Kentucky for the 2nd straight year is not good. And beating Miami-Ohio is no great feat. But against good teams like Louisville, Florida, and South Carolina, they kept the differential between 7-17 points. Are they in contention for being the worst team in the SEC? Perhaps. But they’re still gritty enough to at least keep games relatively close against the upper-echelon teams in the SEC.
Alabama is in the middle of a cushy run of games and they need to stay up mentally. They got a good sweat from A&M in week two, then blew away Ole Miss in what supposed to be a stern test. But let’s face it--their schedule sets up nicely. The conference title game looms ahead, as does a toughie with LSU. Otherwise, it’s a lot of games like this--against opponents where no one thinks they can win.
Watching Alabama as they cruise through a series of easy games, you pick up on some tendencies that start to make sense. When playing as huge favorites against non-conference opposition, they don’t often cover the big number. But that’s when the lines are in the high-thirties up through the fifties. When the spread is in the 20’s against conference opposition like this game, they actually cover quite often. Going back to their the beginning of their championship years in 2011, they are 8-0 ATS when they are favorites between 20-29 points against conference opposition.
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops comes from a family of winning, but this is a rebuilding phase and will take some time to take hold--and that’s if it ever does. The worst offense in the SEC last year isn’t a ton better this year. They’re flipping between two struggling quarterbacks in Maxwell Smith and Jalen Whitlow, and Whitlow is also the team’s leading rusher. RB Jojo Kemp is a nice running threat, with Javess Blue and Ryan Timmons also chiming in with production in the pass game.
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Stoops needs to overhaul the entire culture at Kentucky--long mired in a losing tradition. He has some tools on defense, including a nice line with guys like Bud Dupree, Za’Darius Smith, and Jason Hatcher--including a good linebacker in Avery Williamson. They will really be put to the test on Saturday. The Tide offense can seemingly score at will at times and the Wildcats might find it more difficult to keep a lid on the Bama offense than the offenses of Louisville, Florida, and South Carolina. This is a little different. AJ McCarron, over 70% in completions, has a lot of weapons. Running back TJ Yeldon is a workhorse with breakaway ability. RB Kenyan Drake is explosive. Christion Jones is dangerous as a receiver and in the return game. A dozen different Alabama players have multiple receptions. They spread it around nicely.
In games like this, you have to gauge motivational factors. Could Alabama grow a bit stale during this period? Saban and his squad didn’t get to this spot by having letdowns. But deep down, they know they can phone it in and still beat Kentucky. They wouldn’t admit it, but it happens on an unconscious level. As bettors, taking teams like Alabama as huge favorites in spots like this is a two-headed coin. On one hand, it’s easy to envision them simply smoking a team like Kentucky. But with the point-spread, we are betting on something that they are not really trying to do. Whether they win by 24 or 31 is of little consequence to them, yet it is the whole point for our bets. Kentucky, meanwhile, has more to play for along those lines. They’ll be trying harder late in the game. There might not be much they can do about it in the event that they get severely hammered, but the numbers game can be a little tricky.
Alabama is generally more on-point in conference games. Kentucky’s offense was a bit more promising in their last game against South Carolina, with 28 points, though a lot of that came late when the game was already out-of-range. Even so, they should be able to perhaps pin a couple touchdowns on this Alabama “D,” while their own defense prevents an all-out Alabama detonation.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Kentucky Wildcats plus 28 points.
