Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 24, 2016 at 9PM EST
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: ARK +6/TAM -6
Over/Under Total: 50.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks come to Arlington to face the Texas A&M Aggies at AT&T Stadium on Saturday in big-time SEC action. Both teams have started well at 3-0 with five covers in six combined games. The Aggies are looking good after beating UCLA, Prairie View, and then with a 29-16 win at Auburn on Saturday. Arkansas has also scored a big win this season already with an overtime road win over TCU in week two, sandwiched by wins over Louisiana Tech and on Saturday against Texas State, 42-3. Texas A&M and Arkansas played a close one last season, with the Aggies winning in overtime, 28-21. A lot of the players have changed and it should be another close game, so last season's result doesn't really shed a ton of light on this matchup.
The Razorbacks beat Texas State on Saturday and the issue was never in question, as they even decided to shorten the game by five minutes. It was good for them to get a blowout heading into this game after a narrow one-point win over Louisiana Tech and an overtime win over TCU in week two. They enter this game already battle-tempered from their 2016 season with two hard-earned wins. Their conference schedule opens this week and this is where things start getting real serious. To their credit, Arkansas has won 9 of ten games.
Arkansas was effective offensively in week 3 with 467 total yards. Junior Austin Allen has taken over at quarterback and has 7 touchdown throws through 3 games with another one on the ground. They've been getting solid performances on the ground from Rawleigh Williams, III., who is already at 354 yards heading into week 4. Freshman Devwah Whaley has also made his presence known. Keon Hatcher is a big weapon through the air. Drew Morgan is also a formidable aerial weapon, while tight end Jeremy Sprinkle shines as a red-zone threat with three touchdowns already. There were questions this season if they could maintain the fever-pitch they set in the second-half of last season. While they won't be great, they won't be bad, either. How well Allen can develop will end up telling the story of this offense.
Last season, the Arkansas defense slipped a bit in allowing 27.4 points per game, which was an 8.2 increase on the previous season. They have nine starters back and among them are a lot of up-and-comers. This unit has resembled the unit of two seasons ago. Even in allowing 38 to TCU on the road, that qualifies as a victory in some respects. Texas State is not much of a force, but holding them to three points might show they are in the right form as they prepare to face a potentially high-powered A&M squad.
Texas A&M won a wild one on opening week at home against UCLA, overcoming a late rally to win in overtime. They smashed FCS school Prairie View, 67-0, in week two. Against Auburn, they took control and held it, emerging a 29-16 winner in their SEC conference opener. Trevor Knight was 20-for-40 for 247 yards and a touchdown, with a big assist from the run-game, which supplied 237 yards on 6.8 yards per carry. Texas A&M has gotten off to fast starts in the last two seasons, before finishing slow. This season looks like a repeat of part one of that equation and we'll see where it goes from here.
A&M Running back Trayveon Williams is a promising freshman back who ran for 127 yards on Saturday. RB Keith Ford has three touchdowns already. If that pair can contribute well and consistently this season, it really gives the aerial-attack more bite. And Knight has some really good weapons. They were led on Saturday again by Josh Reynolds, who had 98 yards and a touchdown. There is no doubting Reynolds' talent, but in a game like this, you'd like to see him struggle less with the more-routine catches, though he thrives when it comes to the improbable. Speedy Noil and Ricky Seals-Jones round out a talented and experienced receiver crew. Knight is 3-0 as a starter with his new team and that's what counts, but as the schedule gets into the tough part, more accuracy would really go a long way. His 52.9% completion percentage could use an increase.
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The Aggies defense has been pretty good. Even against UCLA, they did allow the Bruins to mount the improbable comeback, but still tightened up when needed. They shut out Prairie View, which might not count for a lot. But against Auburn in the Tigers' building, they did some more things right. They held the Tigers to 6-for-17 on third down attempts. They forced Auburn to put the ball on the ground. And they gave up just 16 points to an Auburn home team, beating a team by 13 that high-ranked Clemson only beat by 6.
This is an important game in the seasons of both teams. Each team enters this week with really high hopes, while only one team will leave with the same feeling. It's been years since the Razorbacks were factors and in Bert Bielema's 4th season, he looks to now put it all together. A&M went 5-0 in each of the last two seasons, ending each season at 8-5. Arkansas won 11 games in 2011, while A&M did it in 2012. Which team can get back to that form this season? Arkansas has a certain steadiness that could bode well against the more-erratic Aggies. I see a toss-up type game that's hard to call, where taking the points seems like the best option.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Arkansas Razorbacks plus 6 points. Bet the Razorbacks vs. Aggies game for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!
