Auburn Tigers (12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS) vs. Florida State Seminoles (13-0 SU, 11-2 ATS)
Vizio BCS National Championship
Date/Time: Monday, January 6, 2014 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
TV:ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: AUB +9/FSU -9
Over/Under Total: 66
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In the BCS National Championship on Monday, January 6, the Auburn Tigers face the unbeaten and top-ranked Florida State Seminoles in the Rose Bowl. This is the big one, what it all comes down to in college football. And luckily for us, we get the two best teams in the country, a pair of excellent squads that should combine for fireworks-galore in Pasadena.
Each team has been surprising. Not many forecasters had either Florida State or especially Auburn in the final game of the season for all the marbles. As is usually the case with teams that really surpass expectations, these have been great teams at the betting windows. Combined, Auburn and Florida St. are a glorious 22-4 against-the-spread this season. If fortuitous enough to have been betting on these teams all season, the last time a bet failed to cover for Auburn was in mid-September. Florida State, with 6 straight covers, has been paying off all winners since mid-October. That’s how it’s going to be when you have two teams in the championship where one team (Auburn) won 3 games last year and the other started a freshman at quarterback.
Auburn has undergone the greatest transformation in SEC history, if not all of college football. Last year, they didn’t even win a conference game, with their only wins coming against Monroe, New Mexico State, and FCS opponent Alabama A&M. In one year’s time, they were able to beat teams like Alabama and win the SEC championship--a startling about-face if there ever were one. First year coach Gus Malzahn deserves all kudos for the best coaching job seen in years. BCS Champions in 2010, Auburn had graphically and suddenly bottomed-out as a program. Many suspected Malzahn would get things headed in the right direction, but this has been quite unexpected--a BCS Championship game berth in his first season.
We can’t let the great story that Auburn carries into this game detract from what Florida State has been able to accomplish. Freshman quarterback Jameis Winston certainly hasn’t done it alone, but his off-the-charts play has been a major determinant. For a kid fresh out of high school, he has shown a steeliness and maturity on the field that belies his age. Winston first showed he was above the pressure by earning a starting quarterback gig at a major program coming off a 12-win season and a BCS bowl game win. Then he showed his mettle by thriving at the position. As FSU’s standing and exposure grew, Winston got better. The Seminoles got a high-ranking, with a possible national championship coming into play. Still, Winston kept pouring it on. Then even as a potentially-crippling legal situation swirled around him, young Winston showed no ill effects. In other words, nothing has gotten to this kid and one shouldn’t expect him to be blinded by the spotlight now.
Both offenses are really special. Auburn has their run game finely tuned right now. Running out of the option package that Malzahn instituted and invented, they are running through defenses as if they hardly exist. What they did to Missouri in the SEC title game was breathtaking. They put up 545 yards rushing in that game and 296 against Alabama the previous week. Florida State has been pretty good against the run this season, but Auburn’s Tre Mason is really going off, with 470 yards rushing in the two biggest games of the year. Look for more of that big-game flair to surface on January 6.
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A big part of the reason Jameis Winston has shined so brightly is the contributions of his cast of skill guys. He has 3 running backs that can get the job done, in addition to three receivers who are all over 929 yards. Everyone chips in. The receiving crew has burners and big targets, like 6’5” receiver Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Nick O’Leary. With the running back trio of Freeman, Williams, and Wilder, Jr. and their combined 31 touchdowns, this is a top offense with variety, second in the country with 53 points per game.
In terms of playing great against great teams, you would be inclined to give an edge to Auburn, especially coming out of the more-demanding SEC. Then again, they did lose to LSU and needed a miracle to beat Alabama. It’s just that Auburn’s best wins outshine Florida State’s, even though the ‘Noles are unbeaten. And in their only really stiff tests, they passed with flying colors. They thrashed unbeaten Clemson and did the same to unbeaten Miami. Looking at it now, however, wins over Clemson and especially Miami pale in comparison to Auburn’s wins over Texas A&M, Alabama, and Missouri.
This is a great matchup. And as is often the case in games like this, a variety of possible outcomes seem almost equally plausible. Something just tells me that the last few games have done a far greater service to Auburn than Florida State. While the Seminoles have been romping outmatched opponents, the Tigers have become battle-tempered in demanding wins over Alabama and Missouri. That will serve them well and let them cover the number in this game.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Vizio BCS National Championship Point Spread: I’m taking the Auburn Tigers plus 9 points.
