Buffalo Bulls (0-0 SU, (0-0 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 12PM EST
Where: Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio
TV: ESPN 2
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: Buf +36/Ohio St. -36
Over/Under Total: 61
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On Saturday, August 31, the Ohio State Buckeyes host the Buffalo Bulls to kick off what is supposed to be a big 2013 season. The Buckeyes are coming off a 12-0 season in which they were bowl-ineligible. They are one of the top favorites to win the BCS Championship this season, so the MAC’s Buffalo Bulls are certainly up against it, as attested by the point-spread, which has Ohio State as a 36-point favorite.
Buffalo isn’t all that bad. Sure, a MAC team coming off a 4-8 season is no match for a good Ohio State team. Still, they just might have the best defensive player on the field with LB Khalil Mack, a pro prospect who can really do it all and is far-and-away the best defensive player in the conference. The Bulls defense got better and better at the end of the season last year and returns a lot of guys. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Bulls’ offense actually got worse as the season carried on in 2012. They return 2 experienced quarterbacks with a lot of starts under their belts, as well as a nice 1-2 punch at RB and a 1000-yard receiver in Alex Neutz. They will need to make a big step forward to compete in the MAC, much less challenge a team like Ohio State.
Coming into a season where they are now bowl-eligible, the Buckeyes were hoping for a less-controversial offseason that saw RB Carlos Hyde and CB Bradley Roby run into disciplinary problems. At least they get a team like Buffalo to open the season, where those losses might not resonate. Truth be told, their backups are better than anything Buffalo can bring to the table. It just so happens there are a lot of questions with Ohio State. They just might not surface in this game.
Ohio State, for a team getting so much hype, has a lot of questions on defense, with only 3 starters returning. Sure, they probably will be able to retool under the stewardship of Urban Meyer, but incoming talent still has something to prove. This was a defense that managed to be unbeaten in a year where they knew they couldn’t go to a bowl. That takes a lot of character and a lot of that leadership is gone on that side of the ball.
A ton of the Ohio State offense depends on returning quarterback Braxton Miller. The whole offense runs through the dual-threat quarterback. Miller can run and is a creator on offense. Ohio State’s national hopes will likely come down to whether Miller can bring his passing game up to the level of his running. Again, this won’t matter much against Buffalo, but it will become a concern later.
Ohio State loses a lot up front on “D.” But the incoming class is robust on that side of the ball, They also have the potentially-electric running back Dontre Wilson, a freshman who will get a lot of touches with the absence of Hyde. Still, losing a bunch of defenders, with the suspension of their starting running back and an All-American corner, makes it so Buffalo can be more competitive than what the oddsmakers are forecasting with a 36-point spread. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that in all 5 of Ohio State’s ATS losses in 2012, they were double-digit favorites.
Last season, Ohio State opened the season with a thrashing of another MAC team, when they smashed Miami-Ohio by 46. A similar dynamic here would lead to an Ohio State cover. Buffalo might be a tad better than Miami-Ohio was last season. At least they have a couple game-changers on both sides of the ball. Ohio State’s “D” is less-cemented entering 2013. Combine that with the suspensions, high expectations, losses in key personnel--maybe they don’t quite throttle Buffalo as hard as one might think.
Ohio State’s schedule isn’t that tough this season and they really need to beat inferior teams emphatically. We’re talking about a team that stayed on-point all season despite no hopes of a postseason appearance. Will the urgency be even greater in 2013? Maybe. It’s hard to doubt Urban Meyer with his track record and despite the many losses, the Buckeyes should be top-notch. Enough to cover a 5-touchdown-plus spread against Buffalo? That remains to be seen.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Buffalo Bulls and 36 points.
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