Central Florida Knights (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 12PM EST
Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: UCF +35/MICH -35
Over/Under Total: 54.5
The Central Florida Knights come to Ann Arbor to face the Michigan Wolverines in week two action. Michigan was given a layup in their week one game, smashing Hawaii, 63-7, and dominating the game across all areas. It's the start of what the Wolverines are hoping will be a great season, but they still need to get past these little tests. Central Florida showed some promise, albeit against South Carolina State. But after an 0-12 season, you'll take what you can get and a 38-0 week one win qualifies as a good new beginning under new head coach Scott Frost—the former Nebraska star.
Michigan coach John Harbaugh made great strides with this Wolverines team a season ago and this season promises to be even better. After just 25 passing attempts last season, Wilton Speight started at QB for Big Blue and was effective with 3 TD throws, before Harbaugh gave Shane Morris and John O'Korn some playing time. The Wolverines ran for over 300 yards, with Chris Evans going for 112 yards and two touchdowns, while Ty Isaac chipped in with 52 yards. Through the air, Michigan quarterbacks were able to find star tight end Jake Butt, Jehu Chesson, and Amara Darboh. That's a three-pack of receivers who are supposed to give this Wolverines' offense some extra bite this season.
Last season, Michigan added over ten points to their PPG average with 31.4 a game. The line looks strong and that's usually a key ingredient to good Wolverines offenses over the years. They only had to replace their center, with Mason Cole working with the new quarterback all spring and summer developing chemistry. Granted, it's one thing to run up the score on Hawaii, but it's quite another to make it translate against top-notch opposition. They won't be playing that type of team this week. And from naked-eye point of view, this offense looks to have more effervescence this season and that could take them a long way.
Going back to his years with San Fran, Harbaugh is pretty adept at forming tough defenses. Don Brown is now aboard as the new coordinator after last year's coordinator DJ Durkin left to take the head coaching job at Maryland. Brown did wonders at Boston College and it looks like a good hire. Similar to the offense, it's hard to take much from the defense's dominant showing against Hawaii, but they certainly looked the part. Up-front, they get a few pieces back from injury and with added experience, should be better. The middle should at least maintain its form from '15, while the secondary looks fantastic. After giving opposing quarterbacks a lot of trouble last season, they return three starters to the secondary and might be the conference's top unit.
At the end of the day, Michigan looks to be a heck of a team—improved after a ten-win season in 2015. The line of scrimmage looks better on both sides of the ball. They have a deeper cast of running backs, while returning all their viable receivers. The secondary looks like it could take another step forward. We'll keep an eye on the QB position, though they are loaded with options in that area. This is the first-time meeting between these two teams.
Cent. Florida was really awful last season in a straight-up sense going winless, but also by virtue of covering only 2 spreads all year. Injuries and a suffering cast of support players helped QB Justin Holman regress dramatically in his second year as a starter. He threw a pair of touchdowns in week one and didn't cough the ball up, which is a positive development. He also used his legs well, running for a TD score. They're looking for a massive upgrade this season from this unit after they surpassed 16 points just twice in all of 2015. All in all, there is nowhere to go but up.
UCF has a few new pieces in the mix which could pay off at some point this season. The offense looks to have a little extra firepower. Freshman back Jawon Hamilton had some nice runs. Receivers Adrian Killins got in the mix a bit. The only shining spot of last season's offense, WR Tre'Quan Smith returns and he caught a TD on Saturday. Maybe young receivers Tristan Payton and Jordan Franks can become integral parts of this offense. At face value, you have to like what you see from this bunch. Some hard-scrabble times may have manifested into battle-tempered experience. Frost was offensive coordinator for Oregon for three seasons leading to this gig and seems adept at making things happen on that side of the ball. Look for him to run the ball a lot and give this offense some better balance, while trying to camouflage their weaknesses. A lot of questions remain, but they should be better under Frost.
The Central Florida defense earned a nice shutout in week one, but things get infinitely more-difficult this week. It was hard last season to determine if the "D" just stunk or if they were simply victimized by an offense that couldn't stay on the field. They're not as bad as you'd think after a winless 2015 campaign. They return 7 starters, albeit from a group that saw their points allowed average nearly double last season to an alarming 37.7 points a game. It's almost hard to remember that a few short years ago, Blake Bortles led this team to a Fiesta Bowl win and a top ten ranking. Frost will use a lot of youngsters this season if week one was any indication, as they are his guys and more-suited to his system. It's going to take time, but they are improved. How improved is really the question of the hour, for the purposes of covering the spread in this one.
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In other words, the Knights are coming into a really tough situation this week—both in terms of geography, crowd mania, and also in a stylistic sense. The Big Blue defense is a tough unit to play for an offense like UCF that is working on things. Holman and Company looked fine against South Carolina State, but this is a different kettle of fish entirely and even an improved UCF bunch headed in the right direction looks like they will be hard-pressed to make much happen on that side of the ball. The question is whether you like Michigan in this spot, as 35-point favorites. They thrived in week one in that role, but it's not a spot that they're accustomed to for the most part. In year two of a big rebuild, coming off a 63-point output, and with an offense still working on things, it's a big "ask" to cover a humongous number twice in a row. I think UCF hits the scoreboard just enough to make covering that number a no-go. I'm taking the Knights.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Central Florida Knights plus 35 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
