Clemson Tigers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Auburn Tigers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday, September 3, 2016 at 9PM EST
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Alabama
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: CLEM -7.5/AUB +7.5
Over/Under Total: 59
In a big week one matchup, the Clemson Tigers come to Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on the runner-up from last season's College Football Playoff—the Clemson Tigers. Auburn didn't really deliver last season with a 7-6 campaign. They look for the offense to reclaim their former status this season, while they might have to depend on a stellar defense. Clemson, meanwhile, looks to make another national push with an offense that could be even better. Unfortunately for Clemson, the defense will need a lot to go right to keep pace with last season's unit.
Clemson set a program record with 14 wins last season. They fell to Alabama in the CFP final, 45-40. Being five points away from glory is a bitter pill to swallow and one should expect an urgent and driven Clemson squad this season. They also return a Heisman frontrunner in quarterback Deshaun Watson, the first QB to pass for 4000 yards and run for 1000. He was a big part of why Clemson scored 38.5 points per game in 2015. Look for Watson to improve his mechanics, reduce turnovers, and develop into more of a vocal leader on this team. He knows what it takes now.
The increased optimism surrounding Clemson's offense isn't just based on Watson and imagining the kind of season he will have. He will have even more tools this season. First on the pecking order is a top back in Wayne Gallman, a violent runner that is taxing on opposing defenses. He ran for 13 scores last season on over 1500 yards. Also back in the fold is receiver Mike Williams, who missed nearly the whole season last year after going over 1000 in 2014. Speedy Artavis Scott also returns as one of Watson's favorite aerial targets. Tackle Mitch Hyatt anchors what should be a very good line that will allow Watson and Company to do their thing.
The Clemson defense will against be depending on the magic touch of coordinator Brent Venables to commandeer what looks to be a massive rebuilding project. Heading into 2015, another massive rebuild was projected, with Clemson ending up the number-one defense in the country. But this one might be tougher, with nine starters gone from last year's unit. The inside of the line looks solid with Carlos Watkins, Christian Wilkins, and top recruit Dexter Lawrence. A few ends need to step up, with Austin Bryant and Richard Yeargin looking like the top options. Leading tackler LB Ben Boulware will be the heart of the defense, but some pieces around him need to materialize. The secondary was the worst part of the "D" last season and they return all-ACC performer Cordrea Takersley. Guys like Mark Fields and Ryan Carter will need to produce, but this looks like a potential sore spot for this "D." Put simply, how this defense comes around will determine whether we see Clemson return to the College Football Playoff or not.
Whereas Clemson has a cemented Heisman frontrunner behind center, Auburn enters 2016 with some uncertainty at the position. As of press time, there is little clarity in a 3-man race between Jeremy Johnson, John Franklin III, and Sean White. That's not the only dicey area for Auburn, as the run-game looks thinned-out, especially after the suspension of leading returner Javon Robinson. Unproven backs will need to somehow find a way to deliver. It doesn't get much better from an aerial perspective, with Marcus Davis, Tony Stevens, and a lot of youth looking to make an imprint.
Sure, Auburn always seem to come up with big talent no one was counting on, but the situation looks a bit dire from the skill positions. The line has a couple good tackle with Shon Coleman, but a lot of youth behind them that will need to produce. Gus Malzahn's recruiting prowess will have to pay off this season on offense. With the situation iffy at QB and the running and passing game looking weak behind an unproven line, Auburn has been keeping it pretty much bread-and-butter in practice, making one think Auburn could be an offense that plays it close to the vest, while letting their defense do the heavy lifting.
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New Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele can do great things with a "D" and he has a lot of tools with which to work in his first year at Auburn. Fierce end Carl Lawson will be a threat on all opposing offenses, with Montravius Adams also wreaking havoc on the line. The only possible sore point is at linebacker, where a trio of starters needs to be replaced. Athletic TJ Neal should make a lot of plays. In the secondary, safety Johnathon Ford and corner Carlton Davis are playmakers, buoyed by Tray Matthews and Rudy Ford, who fill out an excellent unit. Look for Steele to get this group to be a little more robust against the run and to make more key third down plays—both areas where they suffered last season. This year, the coaches will earn their money, as they will need to be really creative and resourceful in order to forge success on a large scale.
Coming off a few rough years, Auburn could really pump some wind into their sails with a win over a team some are picking to win it all. They get the game at home and in game one, when a lot is still undefined and hope still rings true. It's just that when looking at Clemson's apparently-depreciated defense, one would like to see a better offense than Auburn's to truly test how far they've fallen. Auburn has talent on offense that should eventually come around. And their defense might keep them in some games, even against some quality teams. Against the more-elite teams like Clemson, however, the lack of firepower offensively will be telling and I think to an extent that surpasses 7.5 points. I'm taking Clemson.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Clemson Tigers at minus 7.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
