Florida State Seminoles (2-0 SU, 1-0-1 ATS) vs. Louisville Cardinals (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 12PM EST
Where: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: FSU -3/LOU +3
Over/Under Total: Off
The Florida State Seminoles will face the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday in key week three ACC matchup. With both teams looking to be among the class of the conference, the ramifications of this game could be far-reaching. Louisville has opened up in fairly explosive form—beating Charlotte 70-14, before going to Syracuse and leaving with a 62-28 win. Things get serious this week against Florida State. The 'Noles have looked potent in their first two games—a rousing comeback win over Ole Miss, followed by a 52-8 spanking of Charleston Southern in week two.
Louisville's week one in over Charlotte was promising, but doing it against Syracuse on the road give the Cardinals' a little more credibility. QB Lamar Jackson has been a TD machine this season. He had 8 touchdowns against Charlotte, adding 5 more against Syracuse. Against the Orange, he threw for a TD and ran for four more on 199 yards running. He threw for 401 yards. He was one yard short on the ground from making the 400/200 club, which is rarified air. The sophomore has cracked some early Heisman lists with his first two showings of the season. A fine runner in his freshman season in '15, Bobby Petrino focused on making him a drop-back passer this offseason and it looks to have paid off handsomely.
Whereas Florida St. was able to explode offensively against a team like Ole Miss, Louisville hasn't done it against a top-notch team. They will have a chance to this week and they do look loaded. Jackson has been hogging most of the production, but there was still room for Brandon Ratcliff to run for 156 yards and a score. And receivers Jamari Staples and James Quick were again effective and well over 100 yards apiece. They had a staggering 845 yards of offense against Syracuse. In Louisville's first two games, a lot of different members of the cast have been able to contribute to the cause. On one hand, judging a team based on two explosive outings against a Conference USA newcomer and a Syracuse team still working things out under a first-year coach can prove to be a faulty compass. On the other hand, this offense looks to have legitimate pop. We should also give some kudos to a front-line that has allowed Jackson to operate unimpeded in his first two games. Again, that could change this week.
The Louisville defense has a lot of playmaking ability and some real playmakers. We'll see if they are stingy in terms of giving up big plays to a good opposing offense. Giving up 14 to Charlotte and 28 to Syracuse might not seem all that problematic, especially when they're getting such a huge buffer zone with all the points scored by the offense. But how will that translate here? With Josh Harvey-Clemons and Devante Fields, there is talent on this side of the ball and they should make life hard for freshman FSU quarterback Deondre Francois. Coach Bobby Petrino has put more emphasis on this side of the ball in recruiting and overall focus and this is the game where we will see how much it's paid off. FSU is going to produce—that much is known out of the gate. Can the Louisville "D" keep it respectable? If so, they have a heck of a shot to win with their offense in high-flying form.
Florida State has already been tested this season. Behind 22 at halftime, they went on an impressive offensive spree and ended up beating Ole Miss, 45-34. Francois was able to get this offense moving both with his arm and his legs. There was more of that against Charleston Southern. Francois threw for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns, while getting Darvin Cook untracked in the second half with two touchdown scores. Francois is already making a great connection with FSU leading receiver Travis Rudolph, who caught two touchdown passes on Saturday. But it really means a lot to this offense to get Cook breaking off his trademark long runs and that would really come in handy against Louisville.
Defensively, it's a mixed bag so far with Florida St. In the first half against Ole Miss, they couldn't get much right, as they were victimized left and right with big plays in the pass game. Against Charleston Southern, they actually got run on pretty well, with their FCS opponent breaking off a series of big yard chunks. They've been able to overcome it so far with two big wins, but if something like that were to ever catch up with them, this game seems like as good a candidate as any.
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Both teams appear to have powerful offenses. Through two games, however, Florida State coming back to overcome Ole Miss makes them the more-proven commodity. Somehow, it doesn't really make one that comfortable in taking them, with Louisville's offense looking as good as it has through 2 games. Both teams have shown positive signs. Still, when attempting to fathom how these teams will match up once they hit the field. FSU was able to beat Louisville by 20 in last season's matchup and that does almost nothing to shed any light on this week's game. It's a tough one to forecast.
Louisville has certainly been impressive, but they're really trying to get to a spot that FSU already occupies as a perennial contender. FSU is who they are, with more attention being paid to Louisville on the basis of improvement. And they have improved, but enough to jump up and beat a really dangerous FSU team? Not so sure about that. I'm taking the 'Noles.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Florida State Seminoles minus 3 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
