Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 19 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: IA +17/OSU -17
Over/Under Total: 55
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The Iowa Hawkeyes Come to Columbus on Saturday to face the the 4th ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. Each team comes into this game off a two-week break. Ohio State beat Northwestern, while Iowa fell to Michigan State to go to 4-2. Ohio St., coming off their toughest games of the year against Wisconsin and NW, are looking to go to 7-0 and keep their BCS hopes alive. They can’t neglect to be sharp for the Hawkeyes, however.
Iowa opened the year with a loss to ranked Northern Illinois, before winning 4 straight games. Their October 4 loss to Michigan State was discouraging, where a tough Spartans “D” stymied the Iowa offense. But even so, Iowa has kicked it up a notch after a 4-8 season in 2012. A run “D”, led by DT Carl Davis, has been stout. A deep running game has manifested, with Mark Weisman leading the way with 624 yards. And first-year starter QB Jake Rudock is slowly finding his way, as is his receiving crew of Kevonte Martin-Manley, Damon Bullock, and others. This team has some game-changing burners all over the field, including special teams--with Manley returning two punts for touchdowns. Then there is WR Damond Powell, with 6 catches for 225 yards (37.5 avg.). Is it a team Ohio State should beat? Certainly. But after full efforts in consecutive weeks against Wisconsin and Northwestern, they will need to play well. The two week break should help, as it came at just the right time.
Ohio State is now in position to run the table, with only Michigan and a conference title game looming as the last two games of the regular season. Prior to that are a handful of games where they should be large favorites. This may be one of the more dangerous of those games, with Iowa trying to play Utah to Ohio State’s Stanford. Then again, Urban Meyer isn’t 18-0 as Ohio State coach by accident. This is not a team that slacks off, especially being that they really need to go out of their way to get some BCS juice. In a way, they are victims of their easy schedule.
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The Buckeyes did well with Braxton Miller out, but their starter is now re-entrenched and has regained a head of steam after beating Wisconsin and Northwestern. Their last game saw the continued blossoming of RB Carlos Hyde, who missed the early season after a suspension. In the last game, he had 168 yards and 3 touchdowns--as a critical part of a big win. With Miller starting to use his legs again, the run game is going to be tough to stop--even for a tough Iowa front.
Most of the Buckeyes’ returners were on offense, leaving the defense as more of a question mark and it remains so at the midway point. The young defensive line has been good, with the secondary a bit leaky at times this season. It’s a good unit with playmakers, but it lags behind the offense. After giving up 30 to Northwestern, teams may have hope if they can hit an offensive groove at the right time against Ohio State. They will need to, with Ohio State averaging 46.8 points per game.
Under longtime coach Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has once again bounced back after a bad year. It isn’t the first time. But exactly how far they have bounced back is the major question. Forcing Northern Illinois to kick a last-second field goal to win was a good sign, even though they lost. But beating Missouri State, Iowa State, Western Michigan, and Minnesota, while a good step, is not yet grounds to hail Iowa as the surprise team of the Big Ten this year. And getting dominated by Michigan State at home in their last game was not very promising. It was a game that perhaps illustrated where Iowa stands against the better teams in their conference and it only gets harder on Saturday.
Ohio State is at home, firmly in the top three or four in the country. They are waiting for higher-ranked teams to get upset, while trying to further their cause with some dominant conference victories. Look for them to be refreshed after a bye, especially after what might be their two toughest games of the season--at least in terms of rank.
Last season, all 5 of Ohio State’s ATS losses came as double-digit favorites, but they seem a little better in that role this season. After not covering against Buffalo in their first game, they have covered 3 subsequent games as double-digit favorites. Iowa has begun the season admirably and is on the rise, but this is where the incline gets a lot steeper.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Ohio State Buckeyes minus 17 points.
