Kentucky Wildcats (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 7PM EST
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: UK +35/ALA -35
Over/Under Total: Off
In week five college football action, the Kentucky Wildcats come to Tuscaloosa to face the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. This is the second SEC game for 'Bama and the third for Kentucky. Alabama had an easy week following their impressive win over Ole Miss in week 3, taking on outmanned Kent State and winning, 48-0. Through four games, they look the part of the defending national champions, with only a late Ole Miss surge preventing them from covering in all four games. The Crimson Tide look good and after this upcoming game, they start playing some of the other big dogs in the ever-dangerous SEC, so expect them to start trying to click things even more into gear. Kentucky scored a week 4 win over South Carolina, 17-10. It was far from a classic SEC heavyweight battle, but when Kentucky manages a win in the SEC, it's a big deal.
Alabama's win over Kent State in week 4 was fairly routine, other than the leg injury suffered by leading rusher Damien Harris (questionable). Otherwise, it was easy-breezy, more of a tune-up or a glorified scrimmage than a true test. Jalen Hurts was solid, with Joshua Jacobs scoring two TDs in relief of Harris. The 48-43 'Bama win over Ole Miss in week 3 was a wild-and-wooly affair, more of a revealing result. The Rebels jumped out to a 7-0 lead and late in the 2nd quarter it was 24-3 Ole Miss. But the powerful 'Bama team is seemingly never out of it. With a Calvin Ridley touchdown, an Eddie Jackson punt return for a TD, and a Da'Ron Payne fumble return for a TD, they were back in it. With points coming from both sides of the ball, they took a 48-30 lead with just over 5 minutes left. The high-flying Ole Miss offense scored two quick touchdowns to narrow it to 48-43. A few anxious moments ensued, with Alabama avoiding the miracle comeback and notching the big home win in their SEC opener. After a rough game like that, the easy win over Kent State probably really hit the spot.
We saw against Ole Miss that Alabama can wreak havoc in a variety of ways. On special teams, Trevon Diggs, Jackson, and Ridley loom as constant threats. The defense has scored 4 touchdowns in 4 games. And the offense doesn't look to have fallen back too far, despite key personnel losses in the offseason. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is a true freshman who will have his ups and downs, but looks to be a handful with his arm and legs. He's been connecting increasingly with Ridley, ArDarius Stewart (questionable), TE OJ Howard, and transfer Gehrig Dieter. Running back Damien Harris has looked good on the ground, while Bo Scarsborough has three touchdowns, Joshua Jacobs has come to life, and even Hurts has added 251 yards rushing and 3 scores already. Hurt ran wild on the Ole Miss defense and scored against Kent St. and will keep defenses guessing this season. This is a young offense across many areas and the scary part is that they can get better.
The Alabama defense may not have looked too good in week three against Ole Miss, but the Rebels are going to put up points this season regardless. They gave up 43 points to the Rebels last year too and their defense ended up being top-of-the-line. It's something to keep an eye on with longtime coordinator Kirby Smart having departed. But a lot of NFL-level talent remained with Eddie Jackson, Reuben Foster, and Jonathan Allen sticking around for another title-run. Free safety Ronnie Harrison and corner Marlon Humphrey have been making plays, as this defense is chock-full of super-prospects and established stars. They gave up two field goals to USC, the first time the Trojans failed to score a TD in a game in 2 decades. And against a good offense in WKU, they only allowed a garbage touchdown in the final minute of the game. Kent State couldn't get anywhere, either. Don't let the Ole Miss game mislead you.
These teams haven't played since 2013, making that matchup irrelevant for the purposes of breaking down this game. In the Nick Saban era, Alabama performs with a wide range against lower-end conference teams. Usually, the point spread is missed by a big amount, with the Tide either covering by a mile or ending up stuck in a closer-than-expected game with these kinds of opponents. On paper, this looks like a rout with the best in the nation against a Kentucky team struggling mightily to gain foothold in this treacherous conference. They are 1-23 in their last 24 on the road against SEC teams.
Kentucky took the lead over South Carolina on Saturday when a 4th quarter TD run by Benjamin Snell, Jr. put them up by 7, a lead they kept en route to the big win. Not bad for a Kentucky team that started 0-2 after losses to Southern Miss and Florida. In week three, they beat New Mexico State, 62-42, before beating South Carolina on Saturday. It was a big win for quarterback Stephen Johnson, who is now 2-0 since Kentucky lost QB Drew Barker to a back injury. On Saturday, the Rancho Cucamonga product did not put up the numbers he did in the previous week, but he capably commandeered this offense and the team to a nice, if not overly-thrilling win. The Wildcats ran the ball 50 times for 216 yards, with Stanley Williams running for 123 yards and Snell, Jr. adding 73 and the late score. Though they didn't get off on Saturday very well, receivers Jeff Badet and Garrett Johnson, with tight end CJ Conrad will be Johnson's top targets moving forward.
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On one hand, we're talking about a Kentucky team that can use good signs in any way they come. The South Carolina offense is pretty bad, but holding a SEC team to 10 points is a nice development for this defense after they gave up 131 combined points to Southern Miss, Florida, and New Mexico State. That 3-game allowance doesn't bode well against the Alabama offense. The one bright spot is the secondary, as they've made some plays with their big corners. Still, they look to be up against it against the Tide offense.
Alabama can sometimes show mercy and that could help Kentucky cover the spread. After watching Damien Harris get injured, Saban won't keep starters out there any longer than he has to. Inevitably, this comes down to whether the Kentucky defense can keep Alabama in the 40's or 50's and not the 60's or 70's, in addition to whether or not the Wildcats can maybe throw up a couple of scores. I see better-than-forecasted performance by the Wildcats, as they cover the big number.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Kentucky Wildcats plus 35 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Kentucky vs. Alabama game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
