Louisville Cardinals (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) vs. Clemson Tigers (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 8PM EST
Where: Memorial Stadium, Clemson South Carolina
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: LOU -1.5/CLEM +1.5
Over/Under Total: 67
The Louisville Cardinals take on the Clemson Tigers on Saturday in an ACC matchup with national ramifications. The winner of this game adds a valuable nugget to their 2016 resume, the kind of win that can firmly entrench a team among the upper-elite. They're already top-five teams, with Clemson a title runner-up from last season and Louisville the most impressive team in the nation thus far. But this win puts the victor into another category. The stakes are high. Who emerges the winner in this titanic battle?
Clemson gets a little extra time to prepare, having played last Thursday, while the Cardinals are coming off a Saturday game. Clemson was impressive in winning and covering the spread against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets entered the game 3-0 looking crisp so far this season and they more or less hit a wall against Clemson in a 26-7 home loss. The Tigers looked as good as they have all season, following lukewarm wins over Auburn and Troy. It was the first time this season where you thought to yourself that this looks like a team that could do some big things.
Against Georgia Tech, Clemson was able to control the line of scrimmage. By halftime, they had outgained the Yellow Jackets 347 yards to 22 yards. They slowed down in the second half, but the game was never in question. The offense fired on all cylinders, with Deshaun Watson throwing 304 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Receiver Ray Ray McCloud was over 100 yards, as Mike Williams hauled in a touchdown grab. Tight end Jordan Leggett also caught a touchdown. On the ground, Wayne Gallman ran for a score. It still looks like this offense has more available gears. Against what has been a high-flying Louisville bunch, the win against Georgia Tech was a good sign. But they will need to be in top-flight against Louisville, a dimension they haven't tapped into yet this season, while Louisville hit the ground in that mode.
The Clemson defense looked really good against Georgia Tech, though that's hard to transfer to an opponent like Louisville. Being able to knot-up the GT triple-option is one thing and containing a touchdown monster like Lamar Jackson and the well-oiled Louisville machine is quite another. Giving up 13 to Auburn in a road opener was solid, though they didn't look very special in giving up 24 to Troy. The 59-0 win over South Carolina State was just a bad mismatch, while the Georgia Tech win was promising. The verdict is still out on a defense that has been tip-top for a few years with only 4 returners back from last season's top-notch crew.
A team like Clemson that climbed such enormous heights last season can sometimes be a little lackadaisical to start the next season, especially if they can afford to do so. The schedule, while not easy necessarily, has allowed Clemson to ease into the season. Perhaps as a result, Watson has been a bit off, with 4 picks already. Gallman's running and the line has been a bit inconsistent. The defense plays with varying levels of urgency. At the same time, taking it all at face value and surmising that this is the Clemson team we will see against Louisville could end up being a miscalculation.
There's no doubting the Louisville offensive explosion under the stewardship of sophomore touchdown-magnet Lamar Jackson. Against Marshall, they started a bit slow, before Jackson got rolling with 417 yards passing, five passing scores, and two more touchdowns on the ground. That's twice he's thrown for over 400 yards and he has 13 passing scores on the season so far with 12 on the ground. Yikes! In four games, Louisville has scored 254 points. RB Brandon Ratcliff has been on a rampage with 405 yards rushing in his last three games. Receivers James Quick and Jamari Staples have been on-point, while Cole Hikutini caught two TD scores on Saturday. Old QB Reggie Bonnafon has even hauled in a couple TD grabs this season. There is room for a lot of different people to succeed in this offense. Can they make this all translate in Death Valley against last year's championship runner-up? It gets a little more serious here to say the least. This isn't the Thundering Herd. Clemson has been subdued perhaps, but if the giant were to awake, now would be a likely time.
The Cardinals entered the 4th quarter against Marshall with the game sewed-up, 52-7, so they get a pass for the ensuing three TDs allowed in the final quarter. Against Florida State, the Cardinals led 63-10 and let the 'Noles score a few times. So some of these point totals we see are inflated with garbage scores. With LB Devonte Fields, S Josh Harvey-Clemons, LB Keith Kelsey, and others, this "D" can make plays and is more than mere window dressing for the offense.
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Just to play devil's advocate for a moment. The Cardinals beat Charlotte, Syracuse, Florida State, and Marshall. The offensive performances have been impressive even in that context, but the FSU win is the only real gem on the resume right now and their defense has been suffering. Is it possible that people have run with the story a bit in this case? And against Marshall, we saw signs of upcoming trouble, especially when facing a defense of Clemson's caliber. Marshall was able to apply a pass-rush, which had Jackson a bit hurried and inaccurate. A bigger dose of that this week by the Clemson "D" could put a crimp in this high-flying Louisville bunch.
Again, we're playing devil's advocate, At the same time, there's something about teams like Louisville that have everything go their way and they suddenly run into a resolute team that knows something about the big-time. Clemson won 14 games last year and just because they aren't making headlines with their wins, they're still winning. We don't want to let Louisville's heavy rotation on highlight reels get us off-target. That doesn't always equate to winning in games like this against premium teams. I see a tough one with Clemson edging it at the end.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Clemson Tigers plus 1.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Cardinals vs. Tigers game in the comfort of your own home at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
