Louisville Cardinals (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Connecticut Huskies (0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time: Friday, November 8, 2013 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Rentschler Field, East Hartford, Connecticut
TV: ESPN 2
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: LOU -27.5/UCONN +27.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
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On Friday night, the 7-1 Louisville Cardinals come to East Hartford to face the Connecticut Huskies. This is a mismatch--make no mistake about it. Connecticut’s top point output this year is 21 points. At least they’ve been consistent--scoring between 10-21 points in all 7 of their games. They’ve covered the spread once so far in 2013. Louisville is catching a break with such a slouchy opponent.
U-Conn had to can their coach Paul Pasqualoni on the heels of such a horrendous start. The fallout is officially complete after the Randy Edsall era. Edsall managed to inject some respectability into this program, but this year saw the Huskies hit rock bottom quite suddenly. Just last year, the Huskies were good enough to beat Louisville 23-20. The odds don’t favor a repeat of that this year.
It’s just that a potential bettor sees a 7-1 ranked team like Louisville, which stands in direct contrast to an 0-7 team that had to fire their coach. It creates a contrast that is easy to overstate. The Cardinals may feel some extra urgency with the revenge factor at play. But otherwise, how good can they be expected to play? Facing 0-7 teams has a way of eroding the sharpness of the opponent.
Louisville has been a bit disappointing in their own right--at least from a betting angle. They were hoping to run the table, but fell as 16-point favorites to Central Florida a few weeks ago. And their last game, a thumping of South Florida, was the first time they covered the spread in a month. This is a good team and there’s still a lot to play for, but they’ve been flat more often than not in recent weeks. They have an offense that scores almost 40 points per game and a defense that is incredibly ranked second in the nation against the run and third against the pass. So why are they only 4-4 against-the-spread? With a couple painfully-close covers, it’s been a grind betting on the Cardinals this season.
Teddy Bridgewater is unquestionably a fine quarterback--one of the best in the nation. He has a completion percentage of nearly 75% and has thrown only two interceptions against 23 touchdowns. Louisville boasts the 11th ranked passing offense in the land. But while Dominique Brown and Senroise Perry are fine backs, the rush lags far behind the pass and it’s not one of the more diverse offenses around. What Connecticut really needs to worry about is the fact that Louisville has allowed 13 or fewer points in all but one of their games. Five times this season, Louisville has held opponents to single-digits in scoring. With the Huskies’ offense in such a huge funk, those numbers do not bode well.
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Connecticut is at home. Towson beat them by 15 in their home opener, but since then, they’ve kept games pretty close when playing in East Hartford. Then again, if they’re losing to Towson by 15, losing to Louisville by 28 or more shouldn’t be that difficult. But they held Michigan to a 3-point margin and are a bit more resilient in this role. When hammered, it’s been on the road. That’s worth noting with this point-spread in the four touchdown range. Connecticut is in tatters--that may very well be the case. It’s just that there’s something about Louisville that makes one hesitant to lay four TDs on the road--even with the Huskies in the midst of a spinout.
There are a lot of things that point to a good Louisville performance or at least a high sense of urgency when they hit the field on Friday night. Having lost to conference opponent UCF, they have some ground to make up, with UCF and Houston unbeaten in conference. They’re coming off a break, which should allow them to collect themselves for this final stretch run. They lost to this team last year which should give them a little extra motivation. If not caught looking ahead to Houston next week, one should expect a close-to-peak Louisville squad on the field.
If that’s the case, this point-spread might not be such an insurmountable mountain for Louisville to climb. It’s just that usually when a team like Louisville is seeing some of its greater success ever as a program, you’d expect them to be a better betting proposition on a whole. Going back to last season, they are under .500 against-the-spread. Their newfound success hasn’t translated at the betting windows--quite unusual for a typically mediocre team that has hit their high-water mark. Even so, when gauging the different ranges of possibilities for this game, more scenarios than not favor a Louisville blowout.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Louisville Cardinals minus 27.5 points..
