LSU Tigers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday, September 3, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: LSU -10/WIS +10
Over/Under Total: 44.5
The LSU Tigers take on the Wisconsin Badgers at Lambeau Field on the opening Saturday of the 2016 college football season. It's a nice SEC vs. Big Ten matchup to open the season for two teams coming off good seasons and looking for even better in 2016. LSU started 7-0 last season before falling a bit flat late to end up at 9-3. They have very high hopes for 2016 and for good reason. Wisconsin, meanwhile, was 10-3 last season in a year where they weren't that far off some big things. In a similar opener to last season, they lost 35-17 to eventual champion Alabama. They are obviously looking for a better start to this season.
Louisiana State have lost three or more games for four years in a row. It nearly cost Les Miles his head coaching job and will this year if they don't at least make some kind of national push. LSU returns 17 starters and look to be a handful. Wisconsin only lost to the champs last year and two games by less than a TD to conference opponents. They know they're not that far off. Both teams, however, must find a go-to guy at quarterback. Wisconsin is trying to decide between Bart Houston, who has some good game-experience with redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook. With LSU, we sort of figure it will be Brandon Harris, but with Purdue transfer Danny Etling in the mix making a push, you never know.
Whoever ends up behind center for Louisiana St. will benefit from one of the nation's best backs in Leonard Fournette. He changes games and should improve on his 1953 yard/23 touchdown performance of last season. A recent ankle sprain classified as minor is something to keep an eye on headed into this game. The LSU aerial attack could use an upgrade and has the weapons with Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre. And let's face it, every season, some new speedster who can make a difference finds his way on to the field. A lot of this team's fortunes will rest on this offense's ability to get vertical. The line should be tip-top in the middle with center Ethan Pocic and guards Maea Teuhema and Will Clapp, though both tackles need to be replaced.
A defense with experience and genuine playmaking ability looks to be a big part of the LSU success this season. Losing safety Jalen Mills and LB Deion Jones will certainly hurt, but 9 starters return to keep this "D" on the right track. You also have to like what new coordinator Dave Aranda has done in his career, as the up-and-coming coach will give this group a lot of different looks this season to throw off opponents. Four good returners aid a line that should be stout, with guys like Lewis Neal and Arden Key on the outside both rushing the QB and stopping the run. On the inside, Davon Godchaux the whole "D" better, though losing Christian LaCouture to an ankle sprain was a setback for this front. LB Kendell Beckwith leads a strong group in the middle. The secondary needs to replace Mills' old corner spot, but they return a top corner in Tre'Davious White and excellent safety Jamal Adams.
With the Wisconsin quarterback situation is a state of flux, look for the run-game to take more of a focal role in the Badgers' offense this season. Last year, they were uncharacteristically lukewarm on the ground. It will be interesting to see if they go with a featured back or more of a committee approach. Corey Clement is back and healthy and ready to make an impact. Dare Ogunbowale stepped up while Clement was out and Taiwan Deal is still in the mix. The wealth of options they have at running back is unfortunately not matched by a receiving crew that is frankly humdrum. They will need some positive developments in preseason to go along with Jazz Peavy, Robert Wheelwright, and TE Troy Fumagalli. Last season, the Badgers' O-line was packed with freshmen and redshirts. That should manifest in some needed experience that could materialize this season into a really serviceable line.
Six starters and a bevy of key reserves return to a Badgers' defense that will need to prove itself under new coordinator Justin Wilcox. The D-line is an asset and could potentially make the rest of a young group better. Ex-linebacker TJ Watt could move to one end, with the other side occupied by capable Chikwe Obasih. Conor Sheehy is a nice inside presence, but the jewel of the front is monstrous DT Olive Sagapolu. Guys like Vince Biegel, Jack Cichy, and Garrett Dooley make up a strong linebacker crew. The secondary is the sticking point and they face a lot of questions with three starters departed. It looks like D'Cota Dixon and Arrington Farrar at safety, with Derrick Tindal, Sojourn Shelton, and Natrell Jamerson duking it out at corner. It's a lot of youth and inexperience for this to really be considered a strong unit heading into the new season.
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This isn't exactly a home game for the Badgers, with Lambeau being about a 2.5-hour drive from Madison. But it's pretty close. Wisconsin will have gaping holes this season with an offense that might be a bit one-dimensional and a secondary that needs to answer a lot of questions. LSU, meanwhile, also needs to establish some good QB play, get more aerial, and find a few good tackles. Both teams have issues, but a lot to hang their hats on. Wisconsin should have a good run-game. But LSU has a true star at the position, behind a line that should be really good.
I just can't help but think that the line of LSU -10 is a bit optimistic for the Tigers. They certainly have the most-compelling tool on the field in Fournette and their defense has far less questions to answer than the Badgers do. But Wisconsin's shaky secondary isn't as much a liability against LSU as some other teams. Throw in the favorable location of this game and a double-digit cushion seems pretty generous in a game Wisconsin could possibly win straight-up.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Wisconsin Badgers plus ten points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
