Michigan State Spartans (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Indiana
TV: NBC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: MSU +7.5/ND -7.5
Over/Under Total: Off
The Michigan State Spartans face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday in key week 3 action. Michigan State has a stutter-start beginning to the season, beating Furman in a tune-up week one win, 28-13, before taking a week off before facing the Irish. It's not ideal perhaps, as we are now in week three and all the Spartans have to show for it is a perfunctory win over an FCS opponent. Notre Dame is more battle-tempered after a double overtime shootout with Texas and they were able to break through with a win after handling Nevada at home, 39-10. But after losing to Texas, they are eager to make up for lost ground after the upset setback in week one. A win this week would go a long way toward restoring the Irish's momentum.
Michigan State didn't exactly thrive in week one, so maybe the extra work to iron out some kinks will be good. They led only 21-13 in the 4th quarter, as they struggled in finding separation from their opponent that was a 37.5-point underdog. The Spartans never threatened to cover the spread. On one hand, week one can offer a portal into the future, but at the same time, locking in perceptions based on wacky opening week results can just as easily lead us astray. Michigan State didn't look great in week one, make no mistake, but they still reserve the right to get a lot better.
Last season, the Spartans won 12 games and made the College Football Playoff, losing in the semis to eventual champion Alabama, 38-0. Both sides of the ball face major challenges and if week one was any indication, the offense is a particular area of concern. They lose quarterback Connor Cook, their top two receivers, and a bulk of their line. Behind center is Tyler O'Connor. He had just 24 passing attempts last season, but is a senior and was in there when Michigan St. engineered their upset win last year against Ohio State. But watching week one action, it was clear that they don't have the same dependability and level of play at quarterback with Cook gone. To complete 13 passes and run at a 4.3 clip against Furman just doesn't bode well, as they get into the part of their year where they're playing teams like Notre Dame and beyond.
A really good running back has been a big part of Michigan State's success in recent seasons. Last year featured more of an ensemble cast. It looks like LJ Scott has emerged as the workhorse in this unit, as he was over 100 yards against Furman. They have some depth there should there be an issue, as Scott is unproven as a go-to force in the backfield. A few sparingly-used receivers from last season look to get more looks this season, as Monty Madaris and Felton Davis led the way in receiving yards, while Josiah Price hauled in a TD catch. Running back RJ Shelton also remains as a key weapon out of the backfield and as an aerial target. This part of the Spartans team is going to need to find something in the form of some difference-makers. And replacing monsters up front like T Jack Conklin, Jack Allen, and Donavon Clark isn't easy. There are always quality linemen in the wings and having this line so banged-up last season, a lot of reserves gained experience.
Recent success with Michigan State has been tied intrinsically to their defense. They get more returning pieces on that side of the ball. And for this team to thrive, it's going to take a big effort from the "D." Against Furman, they did a lot of things right, but again, that was Furman. Normally when the front line loses three key guys, a major depreciation is expected, but with sure-thing All-American Malik McDowell in the middle and some quality reserves, it should be OK. The middle is one of the best in the nation with Riley Burrough and Jon Reschke. In game one, the secondary looked a bit dicey and that's one part of the Spartan "D" that has been trending downward since last season and unless something unforeseen develops, it will be the one sticking point with this unit in '16.
The Irish certainly had it easier in week two with Nevada, who was facing an unenviable road trip against an irritated Notre Dame bunch. After a draining overtime game in week one and a game on Saturday, they have to play a rested Michigan State that has one piece of cake game against Furman to their credit. At the same time, Notre Dame is more battle-tempered and has already dealt with adversity this season. Starting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer was effective on Saturday, going 15-for-18 with two touchdowns. The loss to Texas wasn't his fault, as he threw 5 TD passes. He was deathly accurate in week two and that will go a long way this week if he can maintain that. For a second straight week, Equamimeous St. Brown was productive, with CJ Sanders and Kevin Stepherson each hauling in a TD grab. They should also get Torii Hunter, Jr. back this week, adding another aerial weapon. Josh Adams was over 100 yards on the ground, with Tarean Folston, Dexter Williams, and Kizer each running in a score.
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The Notre Dame defense had its issues in week one against Texas. They were better against Nevada from a scoring angle with only ten points allowed, despite giving up some long plays during the game, something that could bite them worse this week as it did against Texas on opening week. Nevada only scored a TD late against ND reserves, so if the win accomplished anything, it was that it restored some faith in the defense after a shaky opener.
Now is a good time to defer to Mark Dantonio's coaching prowess for Michigan State. He usually gets something figured out. The QB issue is possible sore thumb, but it's not something to obsess about, either. Notre Dame has more firepower on paper, but I'm not sure they have enough to warrant being such big faves over a Mich St. bunch that might not be ready to recede back into the pack this season as some suspect. I'm taking the Spartans and the points.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Michigan State plus 7.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Michigan State vs. Notre Dame game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
