Michigan State Spartans (12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Rose Bowl
Date/Time: Wednesday, January 1, 2014 at 5PM EST
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: MSU +4.5/STAN -4.5
Over/Under Total: 42.5
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On New Years Day in the Rose Bowl, the Michigan State Spartans face the Stanford Cardinal in what should be a heck of a game. This is an ideal Rose Bowl, with the champions of the Pac-12 and Big Ten facing off in a high-stakes matchup. The 12-1 Spartans closed the year by toppling 2nd-ranked Ohio State to cap off a 9-game winning streak. Stanford suffered a couple strange setbacks in losing to Utah and USC, but they regained some steam as they enter the Rose Bowl off 3 straight wins, including a conclusive conference championship win over Arizona State.
With a high-profile win over Ohio State that spoiled the Buckeyes’ national title hopes, Michigan St. has emerged onto the radar screen. They had been compiling a quietly-effective season, but were mostly unnoticed. They lost to Notre Dame in their 4th game and everyone stopped paying attention, particularly with the Big Ten on the soft side this season. But by the time they got to the conference title game against an Ohio State team that had won 24 straight games, it was hard to ignore how far they had come along. And after a conclusive win, they are now in a position to command a lot of respect.
As is often the case with a good Mich. St. team, a good run-game and powerful “D” is a big part of the recipe. Leading up to the Ohio State game, the defense had allowed 6 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games--all against conference opponents. Statistically, the Spartans have the top-ranked run-defense in the country and are 6th against the pass. The 12.7 points they have averaged per game is 4th among all FBS teams. RB Jeremy Langford has peaked at just the right time for the Spartans, with 8 straight 100-yard performances. QB Connor Cook has been efficient, with 20 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. He works with a passing game by committee, but again, defense is the name of the game. Still, even though the Spartans run “D” was battered at times by the superlative Ohio State rushing-game, they clamped down in key situations and their offense stepped up and got the job done.
Stanford has been a quirky team this year, especially at the betting windows. They beat Arizona State twice and upset Oregon again this year. At their best, they have a lot in common with Michigan State. The Cardinal are third in the nation against the run and have kept some really good backs in check this year. They also depend on a strong run-game, headed by bruising Tyler Gaffney, who has been peaking late in the season. Gutsy QB Kevin Hogan works well with the top pass threat on the field in this game--Ty Montgomery. Stanford’s defense, just as is the case with the Spartans, should be critical. In an offense-happy Pac-12, the Cardinal was still in the top ten in the nation in points allowed. They kept the powerful Arizona State offense held to 14 points in their last game. And against some of the best offenses in the conference, UCLA, Oregon State, and Oregon, they gave up only 42 combined points.
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That sets up the battle lines. Whose defense will be able to thrive? And in the event that both defenses shine, whose offense is more likely to rise above just enough to get the job done? Expect an ultra-physical game that may come down to which team cracks first. Stanford, in its 4th straight BCS bowl game, will be looking to cap off a season of semi-disappointment in positive fashion, while Michigan State’s program would get a stamp of verification with a win in a huge bowl game against a top-five school. To close out the season by beating the number two and five teams in the nation would be beyond anything even the most optimistic Spartan fan could have wished for. Sure, a lot of last year’s losses were close, but coach Mark Dantonio has really put forth one of his best coaching jobs, getting the Spartans to their first Rose Bowl since 1988. After all, a 4-point loss to Notre Dame in September is the only thing spoiling a perfect season.
Michigan State has the best defense in the country, having given up fewer yards than any other team in college football. One gets the feeling that even after beating Ohio State, that Michigan State is a team you still have to force yourself to fully respect. The Spartans will have their hands full, but I see them getting the job done against Stanford and at least being able to cover the spread, if not win the game outright.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Rose Bowl Point Spread: I’m taking the Michigan State Spartans plus 4.5 points.
